French Open Women's Final: Back Sabalenka to win in three

• Sabalenka best in the world

• Gauff playing with confidence

• Value in competitive match

The Women's French Open has gone with form and the two highest ranked players Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff have shown their class to make the final.

After 10 meetings, the duo are tied at five wins apiece and each has a victory over the other on clay.

They clearly know how to beat each other, but I do think that Aryna Sabalenka's 1.511/2 favouritism is justified. When I was discussing the price with other tennis watching nerds we estimated it might be a little bit shorter, but not by much.

The price hovering a little higher may be in part to Gauff's strong performance in her semi-final against Lois Boisson, where she dispelled the hype with a clean, authoritative display.

Why is Sabalenka a clear favourite?

The answer is simple. Aryna Sabalenka is the best and most complete player in the world.

There is a noticeable improvement in her all round game, and this year she has even leaped clear of a seemingly impassable Iga Swiatek on the Pole's treasured clay surface.

After Sabalenka defeated Gauff in Madrid, the American painted the picture of why the Belarusian was victorious.

Gauff said, "I feel like she just got a lot better at everything. She moves a little bit better, but she's always been tough to play. I think she's just more confident, so that's why the consistent results are happening."

Sabalenka has demonstrated this tournament how her game has improved. Most notably her win against the top four rated clay court talent Qinwen Zheng (according to ELO ratings) showed that there is layers of craft and variety in her game that other players don't have.

Also, Swiatek could only compete with Sabalenka over two sets before falling away in a one-sided decider.

When you compare Sabalenka's all round game to that of Gauff, it is clear who will take to the court with a more convincing toolkit.

Gauff may have impressively stood up to the Lois Boisson forehand, which is a colossal 800 RPM higher than the WTA average forehand stroke, but there are persistent doubts about how Gauff will manage that wing.

That is especially relevant in an attacking sense. Gauff will need to play aggressively rather than contain and counter with her forehand, and that on most days is a huge issue for the American.

What the Madrid match tells us

Due to altitude, conditions in Madrid are much faster than Paris, so form is not directly translatable to this match.

However, it was still played on clay and Sabalenka was in full command. She had the match on her racket, and would have won by an even clearer scoreline had she controlled her errors. 

Gauff can make life tough for Sabalenka on this slower terrain, but all evidence points to Sabalenka being the stronger player and her actions will be the most important determinant of the final result.

All but one of Sabalenka's victories over Gauff has been won by a margin of four games or less. In two of those matches, Sabalenka has actually won fewer games than Gauff and still triumphed.

Also, all but one of Sabalenka's Grand Slam final victories have been achieved by a competitive margin of three or four games. For her quality, Sabalenka does have a nervy streak in her and that also adds to my belief that this should be a close contest.

These trends can help guide you when constructing your Betfair Bet Builder.

Likely outcome

Three of Sabalenka's five major finals have been settled in three sets. The two that didn't, Sabalenka was a massive overdog which she isn't here.

Half of the matches between Gauff and Sabalenka have gone the distance.

The question is does Sabalenka have the composure to see off Gauff with a clean kill?

A price that leaps off the paper is Sabalenka to win in three sets at 3/14.00. 

Ultimately I would suggest trading this match in play on the Betfair Exchange, but as a pre-match position the 2-1 Sabalenka win is the most intriguing.

Get daily tips throughout the French Open on Betting.Betfair