French Open

French Open Wednesday Quarter-Finals Tips: Back Djokovic to beat Zverev and Sinner bet builder

French Open trophy
Jannik Sinner should move a step closer to a first French Open trophy on Wednesday

Jannik Sinner should reach the final four but tennis expert Gavin Mair thinks it could prove tricky for the other favourites on Wednesday at the French Open...

  • Djokovic is fresh and in-form ahead of quarter-final

  • Back easy win for Sinner against plucky Bublik in Bet Builder

  • Andreeva and Gauff are too short in the markets


The business end of the French Open is here, and Wednesday's quarter-finals will cut the wheat from the chaff.

Jannik Sinner has one foot in the final four, with opponent Alexander Bublik unlikely to get anywhere close to an upset.

There is no doubting that Wednesday's headline fixture will be the duel between Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic.

In the women's singles, meanwhile, both Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva have potential banana skins to get past if they are to set up a meeting in the next round.


Djokovic has edge in headline match

 

Both Djokovic and Zverev have lived up to their seeded positions to set up this mouthwatering clash, and whoever wins this match will have done well to make the semi-final from the toughest quarter of the draw.

Unfortunately, they face the unenviable task of then - in the most likely circumstances - having to conquer both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to get their hands on the French Open trophy.

It is a tough call to predict the likely winner of this contest. When they met at the Australian Open at the start of the season, it was Zverev who advanced by retirement with Djokovic's ageing limbs letting him down.

There are no signs of creaking body parts this time round, with Djokovic flying through the early rounds without dropping a set, and producing convincing form in the process.

Zverev's passage has also been calm, especially by his own standards which often sees him play a lot of long and complicated matches along the way.

Djokovic leads the head to head eight wins to four losses, when excluding the Melbourne retirement. However, at 38-years-old he is past his peak and their personal record is perhaps not the clearest indicator of form.

The Serbian great has been priced as the marginal pre-match 1.9620/21 favourite, which is fair and reasonable.

I've been unconvinced by Zverev's form this season, and his preparations in the build-up to Roland Garros were disrupted.

You can't discount Zverev's chances of victory, especially if he can drag the match into a physical encounter. However, with plenty of gas in the tank, the classy Djokovic looks too big to prevail.


Easy for Sinner

 

I would be amazed if Alexander Bublik were to defeat Jannik Sinner in Wednesday's quarter-final.

The Kazakhstani has had an incredible run to the last eight that seemingly even he can seldom believe. After upsetting Britain's Jack Draper in the fourth round, Bublik sunk to the surface in an emotional moment, stunned at what he just achieved.

Bublik knows he is a fish out of water on clay courts, but he has found success with constant shock and awe tactics, combining huge serving with drop shots, lobs and all sorts of creative shotmaking.

It is an ultra attacking approach that shouldn't have been successful as it is. But luck has been fully on his side. In his defeat of Draper he survived five break points, with the Londoner offering plenty of cheap points along the way.

There is little chance that Sinner will allow Bublik to lead the dance so frequently as Draper did. The Italian will have full control of the rallies, and should take a grip of most neutral exchanges.

I'd be surprised if Bublik is competitive in this quarter-final. Sinner has destroyed his previous two opponents, Andrey Rublev and Jiri Lehecka, in ruthless fashion. 

Bublik will need to have another perfect day at the office to triumph here, and it simply will not happen.

I expect a blowout, and the market does too pricing Sinner at 1.041/25 for the win.

A Betfair Bet Builder option combines Sinner to win, under 27.5 total games and under 26.5 total games at 11/82.38, and that feels a value proposition.


Boisson banana skin?

Mirra Andreeva  continued her smooth progress through her draw, achieving a commanding straight sets win against her friend and regular training partner Daria Kasatkina.

The young Russian remains on course to compete for a first Grand Slam title.

Her opponent Lois Boisson has been the breakthrough sensation of this tournament. Prior to this French Open, the French player was ranked 361 in the world rankings as her career had been halted by an ACL injury.

Boisson has announced herself to the world and, should she remain healthy, will be an incredibly tough proposition for any player on clay courts in the future.

The Frenchwoman looked to have run her race against Elsa Jacquemot in round three, as she was experiencing pain behind her left knee and was hobbled for much of that match in which she was bagelled in set two.

However, she somehow survived that encounter before shocking third seed Jessica Pegula in the quarter-finals.

There is potential for this to get messy, especially with Andreeva priced as low as 1.121/8 to win this contest. Bare in mind that as impressive as Andreeva is, and the undoubted success she will probably have in the future, it all remains potential. She has yet to fully climb the mountain.

Lois Boisson is herself an untested commodity, and she is showing the game to trouble any opponent on this surface. I expect Andreeva to win, but Boisson has beaten a top seed and is playing very well. It has "potential banana skin" written all over it, and there is absolutely no temptation to steam into Andreeva's lowly price.


Gauff can struggle with Keys

Coco Gauff is reasonably priced to get the better of her compatriot Madison Keys. However, you'd be smart not to discount the chances of the reigning Australian Open champion.

This is quite an extreme match-up between a baseliner attacker (Keys) and a baseline defender (Gauff). The match dynamic will likely be Keys attempting to hit through Gauff, and Gauff doing her best to rebound the ball and get Keys moving.

There is rain forecast in Paris on Wednesday, and that will likely make Gauff's task easier than that of Keys. Conditions will be heavier, making it more difficult to hit through the court.

However, Keys will have the belief she can win this. She leads the head to head, and has the winning mentality that comes with recently earning a Grand Slam. Keys was also the victor in their only career meeting on clay last year in Madrid, although conditions in the Spanish capital are notoriously faster than Paris.

There have been so many false dawns with Gauff that I find it very difficult to recommend backing her as low as 1.4840/85 pre-match. Keys has a shot here, and this feels like a match that is better to trade in-play on the Betfair Exchange than bravely call before a ball is hit.


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