French Open Men's Final: Back Alcaraz to win long match

• Head to head matters

• Alcaraz fitness is proven

• Back longer match

The Men's French Open Singles tournament has gone with form. The top two seeds Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have conquered all before them and will face off in an intriguing final in which the pair are currently switching favouritism in a tight Betfair Exchange.

When I looked at the match odds market on Friday night, Alcaraz was hovering around the 1.9620/21 mark, but by Saturday morning it was Sinner who had been backed in to a 1.991/1 position. A dead heat.

Both guys have been in strong form this fortnight, and I understand the market's position. However, when thinking about the details that matter I have an idea on how this match will play out and why I think that Alcaraz will defend his French Open title.

History in Alcaraz's favour

This is the first time these two generational rivals will face off against one another in a Grand Slam final. And by all means it will not be the last.

Currently, Alcaraz leads their career head to head by seven wins to four, including each of the three most recent meetings.

Two of those matches were played on clay and both were extremely competitive. In the Rome Masters event that preceded this major, Alcaraz closed out Sinner in two sets. There was absolutely nothing to pick between them in the opening set before the Italian, who was playing his first tournament since his three month drug ban, fatigued in set two.

Their other recent clay meeting was at the semi-final stage last year, in a match that went to five sets with Alcaraz defeating Sinner from a two set to one deficit.

There is every reason to believe that tomorrow's final will again be close but I do believe that Alcaraz will find a way.

How fit is Sinner?

Before a ball was hit this tournament I had no interest in backing Sinner outright as there was a clear doubt from his Rome performance that he was lacking in match fitness deep into the tournament.

He has managed to conceal the answer to this doubt in the best way, by dominating all six of his opponents and winning in straight sets. No player has been able to hang with Sinner for long enough to test his physicality.

For Alcaraz, there is absolutely no doubt about his fitness. The Spaniard found himself a set down to Lorenzo Musetti in a high quality semi-final, before the Italian couldn't last the physical pace with Alcaraz.

Musetti's post-match comments were revealing stating, "I served well and was playing the right way, but in the third set I couldn't keep up anymore with the problem. It's unlucky -- in the end, he had more than me. It started early in the third set. I tried to manage it, but I kept losing power and strength."

It is so physically demanding to hang with Alcaraz for a long period of time that the Italian couldn't do for longer than two sets.

Alcaraz does not play like other guys. He moves opponents all over the court, both wide of the tramlines and into the forecourt. It is a gruelling work out against a player that combines physicality with flair and artistry.

For all of Alcaraz's strong standards, he does suffer lapses in concentration and form over a contest. His dips will likely be exploited by the cool headed Sinner.

Longer match on the cards

This contest should be a trader's dream with many ups and downs, and changes in momentum.

Over five sets I think Alcaraz will have the answers, but I expect there will be better match odds value to be had in-play.

The most reasonable value pick I suggest before the start is for Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at 7/42.75.

Bet builder suggestions

Betfair have been running a Tennis Bet Builder campaign throughout this tournament where if you Bet X, you receive X in the form of a free bet.

If you are looking to add extra elements to your bet there are several options I suggest you consider based on their career head to head trends.

In three of their past four meetings (all won by Alcaraz and over the most relevant time-frame for this match-up) Sinner has won the opening set.

Sinner to win set one is 10/111.91 while Carlos Alcaraz to lose set one and win the match is 9/25.50 

Carlos Alcaraz to win in five sets is also 9/25.50.

In both of their recent clay meetings Carlos Alcaraz has won the ace battle, notching eight to Sinner's seven in their 2024 French Open semi-final five setter, while hitting four to Sinner's one in Rome two weeks ago.

Alcaraz is 11/102.11 to hit over 4.5 Aces.

In last year's French Open semi-final they played a total of 45 games. Over 40.5 games in this match is [5/6]. 

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