Favourites ease through on Friday
Difficult to split Hurkacz and Korda
Dimitrov the pick to shock Rublev
Korda a bigger price than previous Australian Open meeting
After the two solid pre-match favourites progressed on Friday, we now know the identity of the semi-finalists of the Shanghai Masters. The quartet have just four Masters titles between them, and the outright market is wide open with Andrey Rublev the tournament favourite at just below 3.002/1.
Action starts at 0930 UK time with Hubert Hurkacz facing Sebastian Korda in the opener, and it's Hurkacz who has the very marginal market edge at a current 1.9110/11.
The duo met in the fourth round of the Australian Open in January, with Korda actually the favourite at around 1.654/6 that day and getting through after a final set tiebreak, so there's been a fair degree of market movement since.
Hurkacz facing upgrade in opposition
Hurkacz has yet to be really tested by higher level opposition in this event, facing players all ranked outside the top 50 so Korda will be a significant step up in level from what he's encountered so far, and the American has already beaten three top 25 players including second seed Daniil Medvedev to get to this stage.
Korda got us a winner on Thursday when he beat Ben Shelton but my numbers have this as basically even money apiece - Hurkacz has around a 2% edge on service points won on hard court this year, while Korda has a similar advantage on return. There really isn't much to separate the duo and I don't think there's any realistic value in market prices.
Dimitrov capable of fourth victory over Rublev
Following this, the later match-up features Friday's two winners, Rublev and Dimitrov, with Rublev the 1.674/6 favourite to make the final.
Dimitrov has impressed here so far with the only set he has dropped being against tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz in his shock win over the Spaniard, while Rublev has also got through with fairly minimal fuss, still yet to drop a set in the eight in which he has competed. Only his win over Tommy Paul (5&5) looked relatively close.
On hard court this year, Rublev has the edge on return data with broadly similar service data. Interestingly, despite being the higher ranked player, he's only played two top ten players (both losses in Grand Slam quarter-finals) on hard court this season, while Dimitrov has faced five, beating Alcaraz as mentioned, and also Holger Rune in Beijing.
The Bulgarian has competed in all of these clashes with top ten opposition, taking a set off Jannik Sinner in Beijing recently, and taking both Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic to tiebreaks, and I'd be surprised if he didn't compete well again here.
Further, Dimitrov has beaten Rublev three times previously in the six matches that they've played, with all three wins coming either indoors or on relatively quick outdoor hard courts, hinting that anticipated fast conditionshere will suit him more. There doesn't really seem to be much evidence that Rublev should be so short-priced, so Dimitrov is our pick today.