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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Shanghai Masters Outright Tips & Preview: Alcaraz a vulnerable favourite</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-10-03">03 October 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Shanghai Masters Outright Tips & Preview: Alcaraz a vulnerable favourite", "name": "Shanghai Masters Outright Tips & Preview: Alcaraz a vulnerable favourite", "description": "The upcoming Masters 1000 in Shanghai has attracted a strong field, and returning to give his thoughts on the event ahead is Dan Weston...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/shanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/shanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-10-03T22:53:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-10-04T08:18:00+01:00", "articleBody": "The upcoming Masters 1000 in Shanghai has attracted a strong field, and returning to give his thoughts on the event ahead is Dan Weston... Alcaraz looking short-priced to win the title Medvedev can continue strong form Fritz the pick of the rest of the market Alcaraz the market leader in Shanghai With the exception of Novak Djokovic, big names are in attendance in Shanghai ahead of a hard court Masters which has an outright market led by three players - Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. Unusually for the event, it starts on a Wednesday. The Exchange market is a little illiquid at this time, but it looks like Alcaraz will start the tournament as favourite priced at around the [2.90] mark, with Medvedev, at around [5.00] and Sinner [8.0] the other leading contenders. Every other player is likely to be priced up at [20.0] or bigger, including the likes of Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz. As the top two seeds, Alcaraz and Medvedev top and tail the draw, so cannot meet until the final, while looking at the seeds at the bottom of the top half and top of the bottom half, Rublev has been drawn in Alcaraz's quarter and Casper Ruud in the bottom half of the draw with Medvedev. Hard court data similar for Alcaraz and Medvedev Of the other contenders, both Fritz and Tsitsipas find themselves in Alcaraz's bracket, while Sinner has been drawn alongside with the likes of Casper Ruud and Holger Rune who have shown little of late. However, the Italian will need to advance past Alexander Zverev in the last 16 if he is to have a chance of a quarter-final clash with Medvedev. Interestingly, both Alcaraz and Medvedev have similar hard court data this year. Considering service points won percentages, Alcaraz has around a 1% edge, but Medvedev can combat that with return points won numbers. However, it will be interesting to see how Medvedev can back up his final appearance in Beijing with a long week in Shanghai, but if he can, looks better value at not far off double the price than Alcaraz who he defeated at the US Open recently. Following that loss in the semi-finals in New York, Alcaraz was defeated by Sinner in Beijing, so isn't coming into the event in imperious form. We have to go back five events to Wimbledon for the Spaniard's last title. Throw in the traditionally quick conditions in Shanghai, and there's another leveller between Alcaraz and Medvedev. Fritz with potential to make the latter stages If Alcaraz doesn't win the title, and nor does Medvedev, who can do so? I'd lean towards Alcaraz's half of the draw to find someone, with Taylor Fritz (likely to start at around [30.0]), or even potentially countryman Tommy Paul capable of stringing some wins together out of players a little bigger-priced. Fritz (106% combined service/return points won on hard court this year) has markedly better data than Paul, and also compared to Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has lost four of his last six matches, all as a strong favourite. After a poor season by his standards, Tsitsipas will need a dramatic turnaround in his fortunes if he is to make the latter stages. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/MedvedevTwoHanded1280.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Tennis Player Daniil Medvedev"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Daniil Medvedev is second favourite in Shanghai...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.219139776" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.219139776">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Shanghai%20Masters%20Outright%20Tips%20%26%20Preview%3A%20Alcaraz%20a%20vulnerable%20favourite&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fshanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fshanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fshanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fshanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fshanghai-masters-outright-tips-preview-alcaraz-a-vulnerable-favourite-031023-778.html&text=Shanghai%20Masters%20Outright%20Tips%20%26%20Preview%3A%20Alcaraz%20a%20vulnerable%20favourite" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>The upcoming Masters 1000 in Shanghai has attracted a strong field, and returning to give his thoughts on the event ahead is Dan Weston...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><strong>Alcaraz looking short-priced to win the title</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Medvedev can continue strong form</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Fritz the pick of the rest of the market</strong></h3> </li> <hr><h2>Alcaraz the market leader in Shanghai</h2><p></p><p>With the exception of Novak Djokovic, big names are in attendance in Shanghai ahead of a hard court Masters which has an <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.219139776">outright market</a> led by three players - Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. Unusually for the event, it starts on a Wednesday.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.219139776">Exchange market</a> is a little illiquid at this time, but it looks like Alcaraz will start the tournament as favourite priced at around the <b class="inline_odds" title="15/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.90</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">15/8</span></b> mark, with Medvedev, at around <b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.00</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b> and Sinner <b class="inline_odds" title="7/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">8.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">7/1</span></b> the other leading contenders. Every other player is likely to be priced up at <b class="inline_odds" title="19/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">20.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">19/1</span></b> or bigger, including the likes of Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz.</p><p>As the <strong>top two seeds</strong>, Alcaraz and Medvedev top and tail the draw, so cannot meet until the final, while looking at the seeds at the bottom of the top half and top of the bottom half, Rublev has been drawn in Alcaraz's quarter and Casper Ruud in the bottom half of the draw with Medvedev.</p><h2>Hard court data similar for Alcaraz and Medvedev</h2><p></p><p>Of the other contenders, both Fritz and Tsitsipas find themselves in Alcaraz's bracket, while Sinner has been drawn alongside with the likes of Casper Ruud and Holger Rune who have shown little of late. However, the Italian will need to advance past Alexander Zverev in the last 16 if he is to have a chance of a quarter-final clash with Medvedev.</p><p>Interestingly, both Alcaraz and Medvedev have <strong>similar hard court data</strong> this year. Considering service points won percentages, Alcaraz has around a 1% edge, but Medvedev can combat that with return points won numbers. However, it will be interesting to see how Medvedev can back up his final appearance in Beijing with a long week in Shanghai, but if he can, looks better value at not far off double the price than Alcaraz who he defeated at the US Open recently.</p><p>Following that loss in the semi-finals in New York, Alcaraz was defeated by Sinner in Beijing, so isn't coming into the event in imperious form. We have to go back five events to Wimbledon for the Spaniard's last title. Throw in the <strong>traditionally quick conditions</strong> in Shanghai, and there's another leveller between Alcaraz and Medvedev.</p><h2>Fritz with potential to make the latter stages</h2><p></p><p>If Alcaraz doesn't win the title, and nor does Medvedev, who can do so? I'd lean towards Alcaraz's half of the draw to find someone, with <strong>Taylor Fritz </strong>(likely to start at around <b class="inline_odds" title="29/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">30.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">29/1</span></b>), or even potentially countryman Tommy Paul capable of stringing some wins together out of players a little <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.219139776">bigger-priced</a>.</p><p>Fritz (106% combined service/return points won on hard court this year) has markedly better data than Paul, and also compared to Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has lost four of his last six matches, all as a strong favourite. After a poor season by his standards, Tsitsipas will need a dramatic turnaround in his fortunes if he is to make the latter stages.</p><p></p></ul> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"></div> </section> </div> </section> </div> </section> <div id="betslip" class="entry_body__extras"> <script id="bet_row_tmpl" type="text/x-custom-template"> <tr class="${idx} bet-row"> <td><span class="betting__remove" data-idx="${idx}">Remove</span></td> <td> ${label} <input type="hidden" name="instructions[${idx}][selection_id]" value="${selection_id}"> <input 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Most read stories
Football Betting Tips
Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 7/2 Bet Builder in Tottenham v Newcastle
Horse Racing Tips and Predictions
Paul Nicholls: Iceo has nice chance in Betfair Henry VIII Chase among my 12 Saturday runners
Cricket Betting Tips
South Africa v India First T20 Tips: India overrated in weakest format
Horse Racing Tips and Predictions
Kevin Blake's Big Races Verdicts: Goshen and Edwardstone can challenge in Betfair Grade 1s at Sandown
Horse Racing Tips and Predictions
Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs 33/1 Sandown bet to shock doubters
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