Sinner out as Alcaraz's chances further improve
Jarry should get the better of Schwartzman
Paul the pick for an underdog victory
Tiebreaks with big influence on Monday results
The high-variance nature of quick conditions were on display during Monday's matches with tiebreaks featuring in all of the four clashes, including two final-set tiebreaks which saw Hubert Hurkacz edge Zhizhen Zhang, and Ben Shelton upset Jannik Sinner.
With both of the Beijing finalists now out - Daniil Medvedev was defeated in the previous round - the bottom half of the draw becomes a very competitive bracket where all of the remaining players should have realistic hopes of making the final.
Alcaraz beneficiary of big name exits
The major beneficiary from the exits of Medvedev and Sinner didn't even need to walk on court. Carlos Alcaraz's potential final opponent just got a lot easier on paper, and the Spaniard is now trading odds-on at around 1.855/6 in the outright market.
Alcaraz is back in action on Tuesday with a meeting with Grigor Dimitrov, and is 1.211/5 to get past the Bulgarian. Already in Alcaraz's young career he has a 3-0 lead in matches over Dimitrov, who has failed to take a set out of the six they've played, which cover a range of surfaces.
Given that other results have been very kind for Alcaraz, this represents an excellent chance of a high-profile title and it would be a real surprise if Dimitrov could overturn their career history on Tuesday. Data suggests the match is accurately priced up.
Jarry's serve gives him the edge over Schwartzman
Prior to that match, though, are several earlier clashes with Nicolas Jarry facing Diego Schwartzman in the opener at 0530 UK time. Jarry is 1.528/15 to get past former top 10 player Schwartzman, who came into this event having really struggled this year and needing a wild card to gain entry, and a run for the Argentine to the fourth round, and possibly beyond, wasn't particularly anticipated.
Jarry got the better of Schwartzman on clay in Santiago in early March in a final-set tiebreak, and he looks a very justified favourite to double up here. Schwartzman has won fewer than 60% of service points on hard court this season, and will need to serve well and take one or two of his likely few opportunities on return if he is to upset the odds. There's probably a case for Jarry actually being a little generously priced as favourite here, given that he's held service games 13% more than his opponent on hard court in 2023.
Wolf with chance of another underdog victory
The other meeting in the early part of the Tuesday schedule is Ugo Humbert against JJ Wolf, with both requiring underdog victories to get to this stage. Wolf has ridden his luck somewhat with two final-set tiebreak wins over Cam Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi, and is underdog at 2.427/5 to make it a hat-trick of underdog victories.
The odds look a little short on Humbert, but not unduly so. The Frenchman's slightly better return data gives him enough of an edge to warrant favourite status, although I do anticipate a pretty close match, which all of Wolf's three here have been so far.
Paul looks a decent shout at prices
Finally, the night match features Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul, with the higher-ranked Rublev a 1.511/2 favourite to progress. This is only slightly bigger-priced than the 1.454/9 this time last year indoors in Gijon, and there's a reasonable argument to suggest that the ability differential between the duo has narrowed since then.
Certainly the world rankings agree, with a seven-place gap between the duo right now compared to 19 places this time last year, and hard court data also makes a strong case for the duo being much closer matched. Rublev has won a slightly higher percentage of service points, while Paul has the edge on return.
All the above evidence suggests that Paul is under-rated here, and he looks a decent shout at a big price to give us a run for our money on Tuesday.