Oscars Odds: Chadwick Boseman still favourite after BAFTAs upset

  • Max Liu
  • 2:00 min read
The late American actor Chadwick Boseman
Boseman is the favourite to win Best Leading Actor

There was a surprise at the BAFTAs on Sunday so will we see it repeated at the Oscars? Max Liu discusses the latest odds with just over a week to go until the Academy Awards...

"Where there could be value is in the Best Leading Actress category where Nomadland's Frances McDormand, who won at the BAFTAs, is 5.85/1 behind favourite Carey Mulligan 2.486/4 and Andra Day 5.04/1."

Chadwick Boseman is still odds-on to win a posthumous the Best Leading Actor Oscar even though there was an upset at the BAFTA's when 6/1 Anthony Hopkins took the award.

I questioned Boseman's favouritism before the big night but expected him to win and was surprised when Hopkins triumphed for his performance in The Father.

Will we see another upset at the Oscars on 25 April?

Exchange bettors remain confident that Boseman will prevail. He was much loved in Hollywood, in part for his breakout performance in Black Panther, and at the Golden Globes last month won for Best Actor in a Drama.

That's often a pointer towards where the Academy Award is going. Last year Joaquin Phoenix did the double and so did Remi Malek in 2019. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the winner of the Best Actor in a Drama Globe didn't go on to win Best Leading Actor at the Oscars.

For that reason, and the fact that there is probably more love for Hopkins in BAFTA than within the Academy for patriotic reasons, bettors are correct not overreact. Still, Hopkins may well represent value at 7.613/2 with small stakes.

Nomadland set for Academy glory

The big story of the BAFTAs was the four awards that Nomadland took home, including Best Film, Best Director and Best Leading Actress.

Chloe Zhao's story of hardscrabble lives in America's contemporary west is 1.251/4 to win the Oscar for Best Picture and looks practically unstoppable with The Trial of the Chicago 7 6.411/2 and Minari 7.06/1 it's nearest rivals on the Exchange.

Frances McDormand.jpg

Do the awards for Best Picture and Best Director always go to the same film?

They did last year when Parasite and Bong Joon-ho were both victorious but they don't always, as we saw in 2019 when Green Book won Best Picture and Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director for his work on Roma.

This looks set to be one of those years when both the big awards go to the same film as Nomadland's Chloe Zhao looks set to become only the second woman to win Best Director.

Where there could be value is in the Best Leading Actress category where Nomadland's Frances McDormand, who won at the BAFTAs, is 5.85/1 behind favourite Carey Mulligan 2.486/4 and Andra Day 5.04/1.

This is the most competitive of the main categories and both Day or McDormand are appealing bets at the prices. McDormand won this Oscars for her role in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2017 and if she takes it on 25 April it'll be her third.

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