Eurovision 2023 Semi-Final 1: Croatian camp might not do the trick

• Loreen a worthy favourite to win Eurovision, but she isn't expected to win semi

• Finland may flop once juries get involved

• Croatian anti-war message may be lost

• First semi-final is on Tuesday at 20:00, live on BBC

Finland too short to take semi-final victory

As Rob Furber points out in his excellent Eurovision betting guide, the semi-finals will be decided purely by televotes, with only the Grand Final involving the usual mix of jury and viewer votes. On that basis, Finland have leapt to the top of the Semi-Final 1 Winner market, but if juries were involved it wouldn't have a prayer of topping the pile.

"Cha Cha Cha" by Kaarija is quite an assault on the senses. Our protagonist has the shoulders and arms of the Incredible Hulk, except the muscles are material rather than flesh (you'll see what I mean). He balances menacingly atop a giant crate, as pink-clad dancers appear, and Kaarija manipulates them like marionettes with long streamers. It's high-energy, it's exceedingly silly, and it's had millions of views on YouTube and other platforms.

This is trading as short as 1.364/11 at time of writing to win Semi-Final 1, and I just can't get involved at that price. It's catchy enough and bonkers enough to sail through to the Grand Final, but I'm not having it as a Grand Final winner at 3.55/2 either.

I just think that once juries get involved, this will lose a bit of momentum, so my first recommendation of the week is to lay Finland in the Eurovision Top 3 market. If this sails through the semi, it could get even shorter, so maybe wait until later in the week to lay it.

That brings us to ESC favourite and previous winner Loreen, who delivered that famous trophy for Sweden back in 2012 with "Euphoria" (still a major part of the rotation in the Hatchard household). "Tattoo" isn't quite as strong, but Loreen is still a captivating performer with a tremendous voice, and she really sells this.

It's a worthy favourite to win the Grand Final at 2.01/1, but Sweden are trading at 4.3100/30 to win the semi-final. That discrepancy is down to the lack of jury voting in the semi, as Loreen is expected to score very highly with judges. If you want to back Loreen, maybe see if the popularity of Finland swells her price in the Grand Final Winner market later in the week.

Third in the semi-final betting is Israel at 20.019/1, and "Unicorn" by the multi-talented Noa Kirel. The 22-year-old is a singer, actress and TV host, and she's won the Best Israeli Act at the MTV Europe Music Awards seven years in a row.

Israel turned to Kirel after failing to make the final last year, and she nails the first half of this song. The problem for me is the second half, which descends into chaos with a Shakira-style dance break. She can sing, she can dance, after all, this is Franc....oh no sorry, that's Be My Guest.

Noa will make the Grand Final, but as I can't decide whether the staging will save the second half of this, I'll leave it alone for now.

I love Norway's entry this year, and 20-year-old Alessandra Mele absolutely slays on "Queen of Kings". It's memorable, feels very Eurovision and it's been really popular ahead of the contest. This will give the show a rip-roaring start, and given that Norway are 38.037/1 to win the contest, there's back-to-lay potential here.

Croatian entry style over substance

Experienced Eurovision bettors know there are always opportunities to lay short-priced entries in the To Qualify market in the semi-finals, and this year is no exception. However, with juries no longer involved at this stage, picking the right entries to oppose is even more tricky than before.

A great example of this is the Croatian entry, which is 1.364/11 to make the final. Let 3's "Mama SC!" is musically a bit inaccessible, but it has a strong anti-war message, and lampooning dictator-style figures by camping them up in sparkly trench-coats might be a hit with televoters.

As a song, I am loath to back it, but if the message hits home and people like the chaos it has a chance. However, Croatia's recent record in semi-finals is awful, with failures in each of the last four contests, and just four successes in the last 13. At that price, I'll lay them.

I've really grown to like the Netherlands' effort "Burning Daylight", a duet between Mia Nicolai and Dion Cooper. It's second-last in the running order, which does their chances no harm, and although it's no "Arcade", it's an engaging ballad with a good hook.

If they nail the vocals (that was a problem in early performances, but a new stripped-back version has made both singers more comfortable), then this could leave a lasting impression. It feels overpriced in this market at 1.774/5, so I'll back it.

Irish pain to continue

There was a time when Ireland were the Real Madrid of Eurovision, seemingly dominating the continent at will. However, the seven-time winners haven't made the Grand Final since 2018, and they've only qualified once since Ryan Dolan came a crushingly disappointing 26^th in the final back in 2013.

As it turned out, things COULD get a lot worse than Jedward, and their back-to-back appearances (they finished 8^th and 19^th) now seem like halcyon days.

Fresh-faced band Wild Youth have come to the party with "We Are One", and while it's perfectly fine, it feels a bit like a One Direction B-side. There's nothing new or exciting here, and I just can't see how this qualifies from sixth in the running order.

By the time the televoting begins, I fear this will have been long forgotten. The qualification odds of 5.85/1 feel about right.