What are Polanski's prospects in Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
With confirmation that Zack Polanski will run for Keir Starmer's old seat of Holborn & St Pancras in the 8 October by-election, we have yet another high profile contest which have betting markets full of volume.
To his credit, Polanski has bet on himself and upped the stakes of this contest considerably. Is it a bet which will pay off? Probably not.
Polanski's problem is timing. He'd previously hinted that he might challenge Starmer directly at the next general election, but the last few months have been quite the rollercoaster for British politics. And it's not been the best ride for Polanski and his party.
Burnham bounce sets back Green Party
Traditionally, governments have a bad time in between general elections. The promise of a general election campaign can rarely be lived up to, leaving you in a near-inevitable pincer movement where your opponents are energised by anything you do and your supporters are disappointed by anything you promised but don't do.
This was Labour's predicament in May of this year. Reform gained over 1,000 councillors attacking Labour on the right, and the Greens made record gains by leading the criticism from the left. On a projected national vote share the Greens actually beat Labour for the first time ever.
But after two years of endlessly worsening polls, Labour finally made a change, and Starmer was replaced by Andy Burnham over the summer. This has led to a temporary 'reset' for Labour, especially among their natural support base who are inclined to give Burnham a chance before being too critical.
Burnham remains, for now at least, the most popular politician in the country by some margin. At the time of writing, Labour are 2.8415/8 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election.
Prediction - Polanski will struggle for votes in Holborn and St Pancras
Polanski will struggle to find enough left-wing voters who want to send Labour a message right now to wrestle a previously pretty safe seat away from Labour.
Bear in mind that even in May this year, Labour's worst local elections for decades, they still beat the Greens in the area.
Polanski is reportedly campaigning on a platform that electing him will pressure a Labour government to deliver for its base. That's probably his best angle, but I'm deeply unconvinced there are enough voters receptive to it at the moment he needs them.
Labour are 1.330/100 to hold the seat and the Greens are 4.03/1 to pull off the upset.
More by-election markets will go live on the Betfair Exchange before 8 October and, when that happens, I will be back with bets at bigger prices for Holborn and St Pancras.