Set mining is cool but don't overdo it!

News RSS / Annette 15 / 09 November 2008 / 4 Comments

As many as you know I'm a forum person rather than a blogger - sorry Betfair:) so I thought I'd republish this response I gave to an OP after way too many people had suggested a a call. Here's the hand.

PokerStars Game #20582590276: Tournament #106193734, $25.00+$2.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/09/21 14:05:49 ET
Table '106193734 3' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Trzepi (3230 in chips)
Seat 2: SefeR_PL (2950 in chips)
Seat 3: pikul (4470 in chips)
Seat 4: ziberka (3500 in chips)
Seat 5: coolfon (3470 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (3680 in chips)
Seat 8: Viper_x (3200 in chips)
pikul: posts small blind 10
ziberka: posts big blind 20

Dealt to Hero Jc Js
coolfon: calls 20
Hero : raises 80 to 100
Viper_x: calls 100
Trzepi: calls 100
SefeR_PL: folds
pikul: folds
ziberka: folds
obywatel_g is connected
coolfon: raises 380 to 480
kocur88 is connected
Hero : ??

To everyone that says call and re-evaluate flop... Please, take a moment and think about it. We only have 3608 chips, and villain has less which means effective stacks are 3400, so calling 480 preflop is not the right odds we need to set mine. You are only going to be flopping a set 1:7.5 times which means the effective stacks has to be MORE than 7.5 times his raise for the implied odds to work out. Also, you might not always win even if you do flop a set as sometimes he might also have AK and fold to your shove making a preflopcall really really unprofitable.

My rules of thumb would be to never call more than 10% of your stack to a RERAISE to set mine, and not more than 5% of your stack to a single open raise to strictly set mine. Reason that it's different amounts is because in a re-raised pot, the raiser's range is a lot narrower and consists mostly of hands that will pay you off when you do flop your set. Whereas if someone opens in MP and you have 3s in the sb, you really don't want be calling unless you are deep enough, because his range is so wide that he'll often miss the flop when you hit and therefore not pay you off. He'll also push you off the best hand way too often by cbetting the flop when his 67s misses or whatever.

To sum up.. set mining is cool but don't overdo it. Don't just call because you have a purr and want to hit a good flop:)

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Comments (4)

  1. DanM | 13 November 2008

    Well crap, Annette, should we take you off our poll we are currently running about who's everybody's favorite pro-player blogger?

    You were a write in who has gotten a few votes.

  2. Adam | 19 November 2008

    I wouldn't even want to call 10% of my stack to a reraise. Here's my logic:

    The odds of flopping a set are 11.8%, but if your opponent has a higher PP, he will get a higher set about 17% of the time (either on the flop or after). So your odds of flopping a set and winning are 11.8% * 0.83 = 9.8%. If he has AK, you'll win less.

    If you don't flop a set, I don't see how you can make money unless he plays poorly after the flop.

    So unless I'm missing something, it seems to me like you'd only want to call with something like 8% of your stack.

  3. cholero | 05 February 2009

    just to be sure...

    if i take ur proxy it is...

    (480-100)x7,5 = 2.850

    coolfon chips left: 2.990

    so by using the proxy it is still a call???

  4. Robert Jackson | 28 March 2009

    The way I see this is it's no problem. Hero put in 100 chips and was reraised by a limper. That's a classic limp with Aces or Kings and reraise play, unless coolfon is just a totally loose cannon. Hero only has 100 chips invested so it's time to quit this hand and save his money for a better spot.
    Having said this I'll grant that I could always be wrong and maybe these players know something about each other that I don't.

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