NFL Week 4 tips: Back the Packers, Bills & Chiefs to prevail
- Back Vikings to pip Saints in London
- Packers to extend long winning home run v Patriots
- Allen v Jackson in MVP clash as Bills visit Baltimore
- Chiefs can grab Super Bowl revenge in Tampa Bay
Sunday sees the NFL return to London as part of an extra long day of gridiron action, so plenty to get our teeth stuck in to...
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (1-2)
It's the first NFL London game of the season, the 41st regular season international game and 100th all told as the Saints, who arrived early on Monday, host the Vikings, who arrived on Friday in a pivotal game for the NFC contenders.
It's London week! #SKOL | #Saints | @NFLUK
-- NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2022
#MINvsNO -- Sunday 9:30AM ET on @NFLNetwork
Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/fK7vaWiHIa pic.twitter.com/678hakZk7g
New Saints boss Dennis Allen has lost the last two to take his own uninspiring record to 9-30, and QB Jameis Winston has hardly practised as he nurses four fractures in his back - meaning Andy Dalton may get some action.
The Saints have just three points in the first three quarters of the last two games - scoring 38 of their 51 total points so far this season in the fourth quarter, and they'll struggle to dig themselves out of any hole they get into at Tottenham.
New England Patriots (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)
The Patriots will likely have to play journeyman Brian Hoyer at QB due to Mac Jones' ankle injury, so will have to use their effective run game to control the clock and try to keep this one close with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers now rolling.
A 10-point win seems a tough bet for a Green Bay side averaging just 16 points a game, but they should've scored more in Tampa last week and the win looks assured here with them winning 14 straight regular season games at Lambeau.
This could easily be a blowout of sorts if the Packers get ahead early, and they have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20, but Bill Belichick could also keep it close so I'll dodge that one and back the Pats to keep it within two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Absolutely love this game as it promises to be an MVP head-to-head between superstar QBs Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen - who both face struggling secondaries so could have an absolute field day in an expected shootout.
Buffalo have to recover from last week's sapping loss in Miami with a visit to the Ravens and their top-scoring offence with several injury issues in their secondary, but Baltimore just so happen to rank dead last in the NFL for defence themselves.
We should get plenty of fireworks from Jackson and Allen, and Buffalo's 0-7 record in regular-season games decided by seven points or less is a worry if this stays close, but ultimately this Ravens defence just doesn't look like one capable of keeping Allen quiet enough to pinch a win.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Patrick Mahomes got beaten up at Raymond James Stadium in the 2021 Super Bowl, so will be desperate to get some revenge back in that stadium - even though he'll face a defence that looks just as mean as in that championship beatdown.
The Bucs are just one of two teams to stop Mahomes leading a touchdown drive in 77 career starts, but their problem has been putting up points, averaging just 17 points a game so far as Tom Brady's struggled to connect with a makeshift receiving corps. He'll get Mike Evans back this week but that may not be enough.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
The unbeaten Eagles welcome former head coach Doug Pederson, who led them to their only Super Bowl success in 2018, back to Philly with a surprisingly good Jags side that should probably also be 3-0.
Jalen Hurts has been operating at an MVP level in Philly's three dominating wins, while the Jags are reborn following just four wins across the last two seasons - having shutout the Colts and dominated the well-fancied Chargers.
JALEN HURTS, NFC OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE MONTH #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/zzSeNMOKH5
-- Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 29, 2022
The Jags lead the league in run defence and have the joint-most takeaways and interceptions after three games, while Trevor Lawrence is showing us a little something now he's got a proper NFL head coach behind him.
It'll be a big statement for whoever wins, and these Jags look like a serious side this season, but the Eagles may have just too much power for them right now, though it should be closer than the spread suggests.
Denver Broncos (2-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)
The Raiders started 3-0 last season, added the top receiver in the league in Davante Adams and have now started 0-3! Derek Carr has to start doing more, but the same could be said for Russell Wilson who got a big contract in Denver but has delivered career-low numbers despite getting two wins.
It could be a tough watch this one but Vegas can finally get a first win of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Houston Texans (0-2-1)
The Chargers are in danger of being a huge disappointment yet again after an embarrassing home loss to the Jags last week, but their injured bodies and bruised egos should have enough with Justin Herbert alone to see-off the winless Texans.
LA's run game is the worst in the league, but so is Houston run defence, so watch for Austin Ekeler to have his first big game of the season.
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-2)
Detroit are actually fun to watch this season, they're also favourites to win a game for just the second time in 20 games thanks to having a high-powered attack that had scored a TD in a remarkable 18 straight quarters until the fourth quarter against the Vikings.
That's the second-longest streak since 1925! And it's also too hot for Seattle's 31st-ranked defence and so-so offence averaging 15.7 points a game to handle.
Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)
The Titans have allowed the most points in AFC through three games, leading to the Colts being favoured here after upsetting the Chiefs last week. Was that the start of their resurgence or just a one off?
Tennessee have won the last three meetings and have found a formula for dealing with Jonathan Taylor, and getting to see him and Derrick Henry on the field is a feast for running football fans in what's a coin toss of a game. We'll plump for the hosts - just.
Best of the rest treble
Jets @ Steelers: The Jets could get Zach Wilson back this week but Pittsburgh's not really the place you want to be making your comeback from injury.
Cardinals @ Panthers: The Panthers could be without Christian McCaffrey, while Baker Mayfield is struggling badly - even a dodgy team like the Cardinals can take advantage with Kyler Murray in decent form.
Commanders @ Cowboys: Dallas back-up Cooper Rush already looks a better QB than Carson Wentz - who will be in all kinds of trouble against Micah Parsons and the Dallas D. The Cowboys should be one of your locks of the week.
Recommended bets
Back the Steelers, Cowboys & Cardinals to win @ 4.94/1
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