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Dallas to go from bad to worse
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We went 13-3 last week with our straight-up picks, and it could've been even better but for the huge upset in Cleveland with the Ravens stunned by Jameis Winston.
More big games coming up as we reach the halfway point in the season with Week 9, everything starts to get a little bit more serious from no on.
So let's dive in with our NFL picks and best bets - including a bit 12/113.00 handicap acca this week...
NFL Week 9 Schedule
Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Match Odds: [11/10 | 4/51.80
Spread: Jets -1.5
Total Points: 42.5
The Jets have lost five in a row and are 2-6 having just lost to Jacoby Brissett and a Patriots side that'd lost their last six - yet they're 1.5-point favourites here against 6-2 Houston. Sounds a bit mad, and likely down to home advantage on a short week and with the Texans missing their top two receivers.
Aaron Rodgers having Davante Adams is also a factor, as Houston have leaked passing TDs all season, but I just can't back the Jets having watched their sloppy, lacklustre loss in New England under interim head coach Jeff Ulbirch.
Rodgers has been sacked 18 times and CJ Stroud 22 and both of these sides can get after the QB so protection could be the key - but Houston are better coached, have better discipline and if Joe Mixon has a fourth 100-yard game in a row on the ground then I'll take the Texans.
Pick: Texans
Back Joe Mixon TD & Texans win
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Match Odds: 1/21.50 | 13/82.63
Spread: Commanders -3.5
Total Points: 44.5
Yep, last week's Hail Mary had some fortune to it but Jayden Daniels was dealing with a rib injury and Chicago's defence is no joke, so I've no doubts over Washington here. They beat the Giants by three points in Week Two but the sides have been on hugely different trajectories since then - Washington's defence has even shown up over the last few weeks so I'll happily take them at -3.5 and run!
Pick: Commanders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Match Odds: 5/23.50 | 2/71.29
Spread: Eagles -7.5
Total Points: 45.5
Philly have really started rolling now and with their ground and pound they'll hammer these struggling Jaguars into submission. With his receivers back healthy Jalen Hurts can also pick apart the worst secondary in the league with ease, so expect Philly to run away with this one and cover even a quite lofty spread pretty comfortably.
Pick: Eagles
Back Eagles (-7.5), Bills (-5.5), Lions (-3.5), Commanders (-3.5) on the handicap @
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Match Odds: 4/71.57 | 11/82.38
Spread: Lions -3.5
Total Points: 47.5
Jordan Love's injury status is huge here, but even if he does start I think the Lions have too much all around against a Packers side that have needed last-gasp field goals to beat the Texans and Jags in back-to-back weeks - when they really should have put both sides away before then.
Detroit won't let them off the hook with a well-rounded offence and improving defence that's been the best in the league in opponent EPA per play since week five.
Pick: Lions
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Match Odds: 2/13.00 | 4/111.36
Spread: Bills -5.5
Total Points: 49.5
Christmas Eve 2016 - that's the last time Miami won in Buffalo in a one-sided divisional rivalry that's seen the Dolphins win just one of the past 13 meetings. Yes, Tua's back and revived a flagging offence, but that really shouldn't matter here with the Bills coming off two blowout wins and looking strong.
And Josh Allen just loves facing Miami, holding an 11-2 record with 37 TDs and just seven picks during that spell and a host of career highs coming against this side. I'll take them to win by a touchdown here to cover.
Pick: Bills
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Match Odds: 3/14.00 | 2/91.22
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total Points: 46.5
A bit of the irresistible force meets the immovable object about this one with the high-powered Ravens offence gaining the most yards per play in the NFL (7.1) and Denver's smothering defence allowing the fewest (4.4) - something's got to give!
I think Denver will give Lamar and company all kinds of problems here, just like Cleveland did last week. Bo Nix is coming into his own and Baltimore's defence, especially the secondary, has really struggled. I just can't press the upset alert button on the Broncos actually winning the game on the road though - but I'm confident they'll cover a huge spread for a defence this good.
Pick: Ravens
Back Broncos +9.5 & under 46.5 match points @
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 8/131.61
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total Points: 51.5
Things go from bad to worse for Dallas, who lost in San Francisco and now travel to Atlanta to face Kirk Cousins' vibrant and varied attack. The Cowboys showed signs of life late on against the Niners and neither defence is overly trustworthy, so the points spread is correct as this will be a shootout.
But no team seems to handle high-scoring shootouts better than Atlanta in recent times so you have to give them the advantage.
Pick: Falcons
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Match Odds: 5/23.50 | 2/71.29
Spread: Bengals -7.5
Total Points: 46.5
The Bengals got pounded into the ground by Philly last week to go 0-4 at home - that simply won't do but the good news for Joe Burrow's squad is the Raiders' offence stinks. They rank last, even below the Panthers, in EPA per play and switching QBs around has little impact - if Cincy can't bounce back here then it's season over anyway for them.
Pick: Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Match Odds: 4/51.80 | 1/12.00
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Total Points: 42.5
Jameis Winston provided the huge spark we thought he would and the Browns now seem legit with that defence that helped stun the Ravens last week. The Chargers have a great defence too, but have played plenty of dud offences to help bolster their stats so Cleveland should get some joy here and I'll pick them to win a tight one.
Pick: Browns
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 8/131.61
Spread: Titans -3.5
Total Points: 38.5
Tennessee's defence is good, it really is, but the offence and even special teams stink, and it's costing them game after game. Whether Mason Rudolph or Will Levis starts, they just HAVE to cut out the mistakes and the Titans's D will take care of the rest. The Pats seem likely to be without Drake Maye with concussion so that takes away any spark that could help New England build on last week's win over the Jets.
Pick: Titans
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Match Odds: 2/71.29 | 11/43.75
Spread: Saints -7.5
Total Points: 43.5
The 'two bald guys fighting over a comb' game this week goes down in Carolina - two struggling teams with three wins between them and four possible starting QBs on deck, what a mess! If you take the QBs out of things then the Saints are a better outfit so we'll pick them but stay away from this betting-wise.
Pick: Saints
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Match Odds: 1/12.00 | 4/51.80
Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Total Points: 44.5
That Hail Mary defeat in Washignton was a sickener, and now the Bears have to travel west to face Kyler Murray's shifty offence and contain Marvin Harrison Jr. They're capable, but after last week I think it'll be just too much for them.
Pick: Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Match Odds: 8/111.73 | 11/102.11
Spread: Rams -1.5
Total Points: 48.5
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp made an instant impact for the Rams, and that'll carry over in the trip north with Seattle's defence fresh off a roasting from Josh Allen - Matthew Stafford will follow that up in a high-scoring game. Take the Rams & the overs.
Pick: Rams
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Match Odds: 7/42.75 | 4/91.44
Spread: Vikings -5.5
Total Points: 46.5
This is a big game for Minnesota after back-to-back losses ended their unbeaten start, but they can get back on track back at home even if Joe Flacco will offer more stability to the Colts at QB. The Vikings' pass rush and the atmosphere inside their own building is a tough assignment.
Pick: Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Match Odds: 11/43.75 | 1/41.25
Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Total Points: 45.5
The Chiefs have to lose sometime, right? I'm sure they will, but not here, not in primetime at home against a plucky Tampa Bay side who will have plenty of fight but missing their star receivers will really blunt their offence.
Pick: Chiefs