NFL Week 8 tips: Back the Bills to see-off the Packers

• Tom Brady starts 3-4 or worse for just second time in his career
• Aaron Rodgers a double-digit underdog for first time
• Back unders at Wembley with two top 10 scoring defences on show

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

Match Odds: Evens | 17/20
Spread: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 45.5

Tom Brady's unretirement is turning into a nightmare as a 2-0 start has been followed by three defeats in four, each one seemingly getting worse - and ending with an embarrassing loss to the lowly Panthers last week.

Primetime games are when the GOAT used to shine, but the Bucs are in trouble, averaging just under 18 points a game with Brady throwing just eight TD passes and having no real run game to fall back on.

The Bucs also have injuries in defence as they face former MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens - who have made a habit of blowing big leads late on, and almost did it again last week but for a blocked Browns field goal.

Baltimore had five sacks last week, and if the Bucs can't run it then the Ravens will be swarming all over Brady - dishing out hits his 45-year-old bones just can't keep taking this season. This should be where Brady shows the world he's still got it, but I'm just not sure he still has...

Denver Broncos (2-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Match Odds: 11/10 3/4
Spread: Jags -2.5
O/U: 39.5

A pair of 2-5 teams, two top 10 scoring defences, one struggling offence (Jags) and the worst scoring team in the league (Broncos) are on show for the final London game of the season - thanks a lot, NFL!

At least Russell Wilson is excited - so excited he spent half the flight over doing high knees and exercises in the aisle of the plane to keep his injured hamstring loose, which I'm sure his team-mates were delighted with.

Denver average just over 14 points a game, they've lost four in a row - a poor record though that's matched by Wembley's regular team the Jags, so this one hardly screams out instant classic at you.

It does scream "unders" even with the line under 40 points - this Denver defensive unit is elite so will limit Trevor Lawrence while the Jags haven't been blown out and won't have too much scoring to catch up on.

This will be a game for defensive purists, and while trips to endzone may be few and far between it should at least be close going down the stretch. If pushed, we'll go with the Jags to just generate enough to edge it at the death.

Green Bay Packers (3-4) @ Buffalo Bills (5-1)

Match Odds: 7/2 | 1/5
Spread: Bills -10.5
O/U: 47.5

Just about the last game Aaron Rodgers needs now is a trip to Buffalo to face the Bills, coming off a bye week with a well-rested number one defence in the NFL.

Rodgers being a double digit underdog for the first time ever in his career shows just how far the Packers have fallen - and how highly the Bills and Josh Allen are rated as they chase a first ever Super Bowl success.

Green Bay's main man Rodgers has been calling his team-mates out all week for making too many mistakes, and they've been constantly shooting themselves in the foot this season with a slow dink-and-dunk offence complimented by an error-strewn special teams again consistently putting them behind the eight ball.

The Bills have a dominant defence and playmakers the Packers would kill for, but even with that this massive spread in their favour looks too good to be true. I could certainly see Green Bay getting blown out of the water, but suspect they'll keep it close enough.

New England (3-4) @ New York Jets (5-2)

Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/10
Spread: Patriots -2.5
O/U: 40.5

Bill Belichick is 34-10 against the Jets having won the last 12 straight meetings, but he's not used to having a worse record than his big rivals at this stage of the season, which tells you that Robert Saleh has one of the most competitive Jets squads in some time.

They've lost electric rookie running back Breece Hall, but they have Michael Carter and have brought in James Robinson from Jacksonville which shows you the front office knows they've got something going.

More importantly, New York have four wins on the spin while the Pats have been inconsistent and have QB Mac Jones possibly lacking a bit of confidence after his bizarre shot return on Monday night.

The the Bears ran all over them then and the Jets will try and do the same and can earn their first win in this rivalry since 2015.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

Match Odds: 7/2 | 1/5
Spread: Eagles -10.5
O/U: 43.5

The unbeaten Eagles have had a bye week off to prepare for a Pittsburgh side that's dropped four of the last five and has lost their last nine trips to Pennsylvania rivals Philly. The Eagles have even gone out and traded for top pass rusher Robert Quinn to try and ram home their Super Bowl prospects.

Apart from the Bills game, Pittsburgh aren't getting blown out so they'll play tough, but they're just not generating enough big plays on offence or pass rush on defence to keep up with Jalen Hurts and a physically dominant Eagles squad on both sides of the ball.

New York Giants (6-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

Match Odds: 13/10 | 8/13
Spread: Seahawks -3
O/U: 44.5

The Giants are just the third team in history to go 6-1 despite being behind in every game - they've also had all seven games decided by one score, so the question is how long they can keep edging these decisions.

They're two surprise teams but there'll be no surprise tactics as this will be a ground and pound clash with Saquon Barkley and rookie Kenneth Walker both averaging over 100 rushing yards a game as starters.

Neither side can really stop the run either, ranking 28th and 29th, so they'll both be licking their chops at their match-ups and it just depends who can get a stop here and there that makes the difference.

Seattle are favourites with a fierce hime advantage, but this season it's been the Giants doing the right things at the right time - until they show us otherwise we'll keep rolling with the G-Men.