-
-
Denver can destroy woeful Panthers
-
Not a bad week last week with an 11-4 straight-up record for the weekly picks, notably due to Seattle's upset win in Atlanta and going a bit too gung-ho backing the Giants at home to the Eagles - although Philly had Saquon Barkley to thank for that.
Now we're on to Week Eight and another top slate of games, including divisional rivalry games for both Baltimore and Kansas City and the highlight being a huge NFC clash between traditional old rivals Dallas and San Francisco.
So let's waste no time and crack right on with our Week 8 picks and best bets...
NFL... Only Bettor - Listen here!
NFL Week 8 Schedule
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (01:15 Friday)
Match Odds: 4/71.57 | 11/82.38
Spread: Vikings -3
Total Points: 48.5
A long trip on a short week after a first loss of the season could spell trouble for Minnesota, but they can pass this test through their disruptive defence taking advantage of LA's suspect offensive line - which has yielded 17 sacks and 25 hits on Matthew Stafford.
With that lack of protection the Rams need to run it, but the Vikings only allow 80 yards a game as the second-best rush defence in the league, while LA are third-worst with 151.7 yards per game so we'll see a large dose of Aaron Jones and likely a final score under the line.
Pick: Vikings
Back Vikings to win & under 47.5pts
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Match Odds: 7/42.75 | 4/91.44
Spread: Niners -4.5
Total Points: 47.5
Massive injury problems on both sides of this classic NFC grudge match, but regardless the match-up looks all wrong for Dallas, with San Francisco's defence and run game looking just too strong.
Brock Purdy's turnovers cost the Niners against Kansas City but he won't try too many risky throws as Kyle Shanahan will think up a million different ways to run the ball with Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo against a pretty poor Cowboys rush defence.
The 49ers already top the league in time of possession and that'll only increase pressure on Dak Prescott and a pretty one-dimensional Cowboys offence. Dak's thrown four interceptions and been sacked six times in the last two games - the 49ers will add to those woes.
Pick: 49ers
Back 49ers to win & under 48.5pts
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Match Odds: 1/61.17 | 4/15.00
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total Points: 45.5
It's a one-sided contest on paper and if you'd spot any team 9.5 points in any fixture it'd be these rampaging Ravens against the battered and beleaguered Browns. But Jameis Winston coming in for Deshaun Watson would actually be an upgrade, and the team seems to be rallying around their stricken QB so they've got something to fight for.
Ultimately at some point you have to think Baltimore will run away with it, but the best option could be to pair a more modest win with the Chiefs below...
Pick: Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Raiders
Match Odds: 1/51.20 | 7/24.50
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Total Points: 42.5
The Chiefs' unbeaten record looks safe here as Vegas average just over 15 points a game in a three-match losing streak with a -9 turnover differential, while KC have won the last four road games in Vegas by an average of 15 points
Patrick Mahomes continues to have some of the worst passing stats of his career but the Chiefs defence is playing lights-out stuff and they'll smother this misfiring Raiders unit and grind down their defence with Kareem Hunt and a large dose of the run game.
Pick: Chiefs
Back Chiefs & Ravens both -5.5 on the handicap
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
Match Odds: 4/15.00 | 1/61.17
Spread: Lions -10.5
Total Points: 45.5
Crazy Stat: The Lions have more offensive TDs (18) than incomplete passes (16) over the last four games! And Jared Goff's laser-guided passing can help slice up a Titans side that's just suffered their biggest loss of the season in Buffalo. The other came against the Packers and Goff is right up there with Jordan Love and Josh Allen so expect a similar result.
Pick: Lions
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
Match Odds: 11/82.38 | 4/71.57
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Total Points: 47.5
It's a team sport but the pick could just rest on whether Tua Tagovailoa plays - as Miami have won just once and scored 40 total points in four games without him in an offensive train wreck. QBs have dropped like flies and likely starter Tim Boyle is 0-10 in games he's thrown a pass in.
Tua will surely have some ring rust on him so even if he suits up I'll edge towards the Cards even with a long trip out east on a short week.
Pick: Cardinals
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Match Odds: 2/71.29 | 5/23.50
Spread: Jets -7
Total Points: 41.5
The Jets dominated their week three meeting and have signed Davante Adams since then so should really walk this - but they've lost four on the spin and Drake Maye has shown he can conjure up the odd big play or two to cause a few issues for a Jets side desperately in need of a win. It could be closer than a touchdown between them but it really shouldn't.
Pick: Jets
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Match Odds: 8/111.73 | 11/102.11
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total Points: 46.5
This was a barnburner in Week 5 with Kirk Cousins throwing for 509 yards but there won't be such gaudy numbers in this one. It's a get-right game for Atlanta after a surprise thumping by Seattle as Tampa Bay lost both star receivers in a bruising Monday night defeat to Baltimore - leaving Baker Mayfield with few passing options.
And neither side is great at stopping the run so that'll be the angle of attack from both sides - but with a healthier Atlanta just having a few more passing options you have to back them to pick up a few more big plays to edge a tight one.
Pick: Falcons
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Match Odds: 4/91.44 | 7/42.75
Spread: Packers -4.5
Total Points: 49.5
Jordan Love almost gave away the win against Houston last week, where this very good Packers defence shut down CJ Stroud completely - they should be able to do something similar to Trevor Lawrence as the Jags return from a fortnight in London.
Green Bay have one of the best passing attacks in the league and Jacksonville one of the worst secondaries - just a clean game from Love and the Packers will coast it.
Pick: Packers
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Match Odds: 2/13.00 | 4/111.36
Spread: Texans -5.5
Total Points: 46.5
CJ Stroud and Houston are a much better side at home, and despite the loss of Nico Collins slowing down the offence, the defence will get plenty of chances the way Anthony Richardson makes mistakes - despite his obvious talents as a runner.
Pick: Texans
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers
Match Odds: 5/23.50 | 2/71.29
Spread: Chargers -7.5
Total Points: 39.5
The Chargers couldn't find the end zone on Monday, but a Saints defence yielding 42 points in the last two games can show them the way. Jim Harbaugh's side have not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season - and New Orleans got blown out by Denver's elite defence last Thursday, so we know which way this one should go.
Pick: Chargers
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
Match Odds: 4/71.57 | 11/82.38
Spread: Bills -3
Total Points: 47.5
It's a big game for Josh Allen as none of the Bills' five wins have come against teams with winning records (combined 10-23) and both losses have come away - where Allen's stats take a noticeable nosedive.
He's not thrown an interception this season though and if he stays mistake free and Buffalo can run on Seattle's bottom-five rush defence then the Bills should prosper. The Seahawks impressed in Atlanta last week but Buffalo could just be a step up.
Pick: Bills
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Match Odds: 3/14.00 | 2/91.22
Spread: Broncos -8.5
Total Points: 43.5
In isolation I do not like backing a Bo Nix offence to win by nine one bit, BUT.... This Carolina side is approaching historical levels of futility with their six loses coming by 24.5 points per game on average and three away defeats by an average of 32.
The Panthers' closest defeat on the road is 26 points and Denver's defence has helped destroy bad teams this season, with three of their last four wins coming by 19, 16 and 23 points. I'm actually feeling good about another blowout now.
Pick: Broncos
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
Match Odds: 4/61.67 | 6/52.20
Spread: Bears -2.5
Total Points: 44.5
Jayden Daniels' injury not only hurt my fantasy team but may have robbed us of the No.1 vs No.2 draft picks battling it out in Washington. Marcus Mariota is the Commanders back-up and can do a job, but whether the home defence can limit Caleb Williams and the rested Chicago offence is the big question. The way they really tested Baltimore I'll pick them either way.
Pick: Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
Match Odds: 6/52.20 | 4/61.67
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Total Points: 48.5
Can't quite decide on this one - Cincy have looked much better recently but their rush defence remains suspect and not many have found any answers for Saquon Barkley so far. Joe Burrow has been good at home but the Bengals are 0-3 on their home turf and the way Philly can control the clock and the ball could see them pinch it.
Pick: Eagles
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (01:15 Tues)
Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 1/31.33
Spread: Steelers -5.5
Total Points: 36.5
Russell Wilson rewarded Mike Tomlin's faith in him as they beat the Jets, next the green half of New York visits Pittsburgh but the result should be something similar. The Giants have managed just 10 points combined in their last two games and this Steelers defence, allowing just 14 points a game at home, is not the antedote to those scoring woes.
Pick: Steelers