NFL Week 7 tips: Back a New York, New York double & Pack to bounce back

• The 5-1 Giants visit struggling Jaguars as underdogs
• Broncos could be without Wilson as high-flying Jets arrive
• Packers on rare two-game losing skid heading to Washington

After six weeks of thrilling action this NFL season is officially the most exciting ever, with a record number of close games and comebacks.

A record 74 games have gone into the fourth quarter with just one score (eight points) in it, a joint-record 32 games have seen a fourth-quarter comeback and a joint-record 19 games have seen 10-point comebacks.

In short, games are generally close and not over until they're over! So what excitement is in store for us in week seven?

New York Giants (5-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

Match Odds: 5/4 | 13/20
Spread: Jags -3
O/U: 41.5

This season has taught us anything can happen, and the New York Football Giants being 5-1 is testament to that - so just what they're doing as three-point underdogs in anyone's guess.

Saquon Barkley leads the NFL with 771 scrimmage yards and Daniel Jones has done what he had to do to help dig them out of three 10-point holes this season.

Brian Daboll's vibrant defence has also just given Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson nightmares when beating the Packers and Ravens - so even on the road, Trevor Lawrence and a recently sloppy Jags offence won't be an issue.

It'll be close - every Giants game this season has been a one possession game, but Big Blue can keep this surprising Big Apple renaissance going.

New York Jets (4-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-4)

Match Odds: 10/11 | 10/11
Spread: Broncos -1
O/U: 38.5

The last time Giants and Jets reached the play-offs was 2006, that's probably the last time I backed both of them to win on the same Sunday, yet here we are..

Denver have a truly elite defence, maybe the best in the league given how they've kept this team in games despite almost nothing coming from Russell Wilson and the offence.

Wilson's got an injured hamstring and may not play - even if he does can he produce enough to match what exciting rookie Breece Hall and the Jets can produce on the ground? Most likely not.

This could get ugly, but the Jets have a genuine swagger and winning mentality about them these days that can get this job done. So, unbelievably, it's worth backing both New York sides to win this Sunday!

NFL Only Bettor....

Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ Washington Commanders (2-4)

Match Odds: 4/9 | 9/5
Spread: Packers -4.5
O/U: 41.5

The Jets and Giants have toppled the Packers as big underdogs the last two weeks, but the Commanders don't seem to have as much upsides to them as they go for the hat-trick.

Losing QB Carson Wentz could be a blessing for the hosts as back-up Taylor Heinicke could actually be better - he certainly plays with more of a spark and can extend plays much better.

Maybe the trip to London was still troubling Green Bay as they shot themselves in the foot last week - Aaron Rodgers was sacked four times, had SIX passes dropped by receivers and their special teams laid an egg.

I think there's a Green Bay back to basics performance here - and while I still don;t trust them to cover the spread they can at least get the 'W' even if they have to grind it out.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

Match Odds: 13/20 | 5/4
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
O/U: 48.5

This could be the game of the weekend as these two meet replay their Super Bowl LIV meeting - since when the Chiefs lead the league in total yards while the 49ers are top in yards allowed.

The defence v attack narrative will only truly be here though if San Francisco's defensive front is fully healthy, which it looks like it won't so Patrick Mahomes should have just enough wiggle room to avoid losing two in a row.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-5)

Match Odds: 1/5 | 7/2
Spread: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 40

There are no weddings for Tom Brady to go to this week so he should travel with the team as the Bucs go to the Panthers as the first doube-digit road favourites all season.

Brady looks like he's mentally checked out at times to me, and this looks like his final season in the NFL, but he should still have enough against a lifeless Carolina side that's last in yards per game.

Cleveland Browns (2-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Match Odds: 23/10 | 1/3
Spread: Ravens -6.5
O/U: 45.5

This divisional battle is littered with question marks with the Browns losing three straight and the Ravens putting up nice stat lines but finding ways to lose - their three defeats have all come via blown double-digit leads.

Cleveland bottled up Lamar Jackson here last season and still lost, and they failed to get the NFL's top rusher Nick Chubb moving last week, so they're up against it here.

Baltimore just have to finish this one off.

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (3-2)

Match Odds: 11/10 | 3/4
Spread: Titans -2.5
O/U: 42

The Colts suddenly found something last week against the Jags and on paper there's not too much to worry about Tennessee's 28th-ranked defence and 31st-ranked offence.

Trends matter in this division though, and the Titans have won four straight against Indy, they're at home, and they're 4-0 under coach Mike Vrabel when coming off a bye week. And winning all of those by at least 14 points!

Detroit Lions (1-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-2)

Match Odds: 5/2 | 3/10
Spread: Cowboys -7
O/U: 48.5

Detroit's expansive attack was shutout 29-0 by the Patriots in their last game, but after a bye they could have playmakers De'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St Brown back.

Dak Prescott is back for Dallas though but more importantly their brutal defence will be too much for Jared Goff to handle as they bounce back from last week's tough loss in Philly.