NFL Week 5 tips: Back the Pack in London, Eagles to fly to 5-0

We've already some some immense thrills and spills over the first four weeks of the season, with the NFL seeing record numbers of close games going right down to the wire.

What's lying in wait for us in week five...

New York Giants (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (3-1)

Match Odds: 3/1 | 1/4
Spread: Packers -8
Over/Under: 41.5pts

The Packers are the 32^nd and last NFL team to play in London in the 32^nd game since the series began in 2007 - ironically enough with the Giants beating the Dolphins.

After 15 years of games, London fans will finally get to see two teams with winning records meet up, and get to see one of the game's modern day greats in Aaron Rodgers and a fabled old franchise in the Packers that is tied with the Bears for all-time wins (785).

Big Blue are third (709) and are looking like they could be emerging from a lean few years - but they're up against it here with QB Daniel Jones and his receivers all banged up, so this will be the Saquon Barkley show at Spurs.

Ready for our BIG debut in London! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/FGsguxs6Ak

-- Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 7, 2022

Barkley leads the league in rushing yards (463) and the Packers have coughed up plenty of rushing yards to the Bears and Patriots this season, so the Giants will give him the ball at every opportunity.

Just how Green Bay deal with Barkley will decide how close this contest gets as the Packers should be too good - and teams favourited by seven points or more are 7-0 in international games.

Funny things can happen to teams crossing the Atlantic, but Rodgers has demanded more from his offence and they should deliver here, especially if the bounce out to a lead.

Watch for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to have big games against New York's 28^th-ranked rush defence, while rookie Romeo Doubs has scored in his last two.

For an outside bet, Big Blue's Richie James might be worth backing as one of the few fit receivers on the Giants squad - and he's had a big game against the Packers before with a nine-catch game for 184 yards and TD while playing for the Niners in 2020.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1)

Match odds: 11/2 | 1/8
Spread: Bills -14
O/U: 46.5

Super Bowl favourites Buffalo are the biggest favorites of the week, are at home, and their fierce defence faces rookie QB Kenny Pickett - is this too good to be true?

Pittsburgh hasn't been this big an underdog since 1969, and they were the only team never to have been 14-point underdogs in the modern-day NFL until this weekend.

The Bills are banged up on both sides of the ball so there's a slight worry about covering even with a QB like Josh Allen - Buffalo will win but it's best to play it safe with the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Match Odds: 4/9 | 15/8
Spread: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 48.5

The spread looks a little generous for Arizona on paper, with the unbeaten Eagles doing everything right so far - winning the turnover battle in every game so far, and topping the averages for pass plays both gained and allowed.

Kyler Murray will have to pull another rabbit out of the hat just to keep the Cards in touch, while defensively the league's worst QB sack outift simply has to generate some pressure on Jalen Hurts.

Another stat where these teams are poles apart is in first-half scoring, with Philly leading the league with an average 23 first-half points per game while Arizona rank bottom with just four.

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)

Match Odds: 16/5 | 2/9
Spread: Bucs -10
O/U: 46.5

Not all 2-2 sides are built the same and the Bucs can prove that here against the surprising Falcons who have won two on the spin behind a power running game.

Tom Brady has only lost three games in a row once in 22 years in the league, and that was way back in 2002, so expect him to top 30 points for the fifth straight time against Atlanta.

The Falcons are the second-biggest underdog of the week but are the only team unbeaten against the spread this season. Brady's shoulder injury is fine though and the Bucs will be fine here.

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

Match odds: 15/8 | 4/9
Spread: Rams -5.5
O/U: 42.5

Hang on, are the Dallas Cowboys actually good? I think they may be good enough with unbeaten back-up QB Cooper Rush to knock off the Super Bowl champs at SoFI.

A Rams O-Line that's given up 16 sacks of Matthew Stafford worries me against destroyer of worlds Micah Parsons and a Big D defence with the second-most sacks in the NFL (15).

The Rams are the worst fourth-quarter team in the league having been outscored 44-3 in the final 15 minutes. Chalk up a huge win for Dallas.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

Match odds: 6/4 | 8/15
Spread: Ravens -3.5
O/U: 47.5

The Ravens have lost five in a row at home, but only by a combined 12 points as they keep finding ways to lose thrillers.

The Bengals have been improving on defence but Lamar Jackson is a handful and the Ravens have plenty of big-play ability.

Cincy have Joe Burrow though, who threw for 525 yards and four TDs in his last game against the Ravens, and one of the best receiving trios around going up against Baltimore's last-placed pass defence in terms of yards.

This will be really close, again, but I think the Bengals have the momentum.