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Back Baltimore to be too good for Burrow's Bengals
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Packers & Pittsburgh picked to win
The NFL heads to London in Week Five with a really enticing game as well as the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings face Aaron Rodgers and the hyped-up New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The Vikings and the Chiefs are the only two unbeaten sides left standing, while the Jaguars are the only outfit yet to win a game leaving Doug Pederson leading the sack race on the hottest of managerial hot seats.
Anything can happen on any given Sunday though as we've seen almost every week so far...
NFL Week 5 Schedule
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Match Odds: 21/10 | 4/51.80
Handicap: Falcons -1.5
Total Points: 43.5
An NFC South coin toss to kick-off the week with the Falcons slight favourites after a second late comeback win of the season last week - but there's only so many times you can keep pulling those off though and in general the Bucs have been more consistent, with their one loss (without Vita Vea playing) looking more an outlier.
A resurgent Baker Mayfield has also outplayed Kirk Cousins so far (Atlanta rank 18th in passing offence), so even though there won't be much in it I think the Bucs just have a stronger case.
Atlanta have a great secondary but give away the eighth most rushing yards so the Bucs will lean on Rachaad White and Bucky Irving - with the latter edging ahead recently so back him to find the end zone as a 7/52.40 anytime touchdown scorer.
Pick: Buccaneers
Back Bucky Irving anytime TD in Bucs @ Falcons
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings
Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 8/131.61
Handicap: Vikings -2.5
Total Points: 40.5
Well, what a game we've got here - the 4-0 Vikings with Sam Darnold transformed into prime Aaron Rodgers facing the current Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. And much here will depened on how that 40-year-old NFL icon's body reacts to being battered by Denver (14 QB hits!) followed by a trans-Atlantic flight.
Rodgers failed to generate a TD at all last week, while Darnold leads the NFL in passer rating and TDs (11) and although he made some errors at Green Bay on Sunday he has elite weapons around him in Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones.
And the Jets will need Rodgers in top form as although this Vikings defence is generally tough to score on - sure, they have given up the most aerial yards in the league, but they've allowed the second-fewest rush yards and most importantly the fourth-fewest points - and that's after facing the 49ers, Texans and Packers.
So in all probabilty we'll get a low-scoring struggle but with Minnesota having enough quality to prevail and cover the field goal spread too.
Back the Vikings -2.5 handicap against the Jets @
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Match Odds: 13/82.63 | 1/21.50
Handicap: Bears -3.5
Total Points: 41.5
The Bears have Carolina to thank for having Caleb Williams but as yet he's not been too convincing, although he looks better than Bryce Young. The Panthers look a lot tougher with Andy Dalton but Chicago has a top pass rush and secondary so it looks a decent match-up for the hosts.
Pick: Bears
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Match Odds: 8/111.73 | 11/102.11
Handicap: Ravens -2.5
Total Points: 48.5
The Ravens top the rushing charts in the NFL with almost 200 yards more than the next best and the Bengals are no good at stopping the run, while Baltimore are the third-worst pass defence going up against a top-six aerial attack.
So can Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase keep up with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson? There's always more consistency in the ground game and I think Baltimore overall just look too good.
Pick: Ravens
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Match Odds: 9/10 | 9/10
Handicap: Bills -1.5
Total Points: 47.5
The Bills go from Baltimore to Houston for another tough road trip but a decent bounceback opportunity after getting a bit of a pasting by the Ravens - the Texans can't run the ball like Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry though.
Josh Allen will do a few Josh Allen things and Buffalo's pass defence will prevent CJ Stroud from producing any more heroics.
Pick: Bills
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Match Odds: 5/61.84 | 10/111.91
Handicap: Colts -1.5
Total Points: 41.5
History versus the present day here as the Jags have won nine straight home games against the Colts, but have lost nine of their last 10 games and are winless this season - can that streak outweight their woeful form? There's every chance as Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor both have injuries, as does Indy's defence, but I still trust Joe Flacco more than anything I've seen out of the Jags...yet.
Pick: Colts
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Match Odds: 10/111.91 | 5/61.84
Handicap: Pats -1.5
Total Points: 36.5
Two struggling teams seemingly allergic to the end zone with a low points total - and I'd still probably take the unders! Mike McDaniel is 1-6 without Tua at QB with just under 16 points per game, and the way he's failed to get any production from all those other weapons even without his star under centre is a huge worry.
Pick: Pats
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 8/131.61
Handicap: Commanders -3
Total Points: 43.5
I was high on both these sides pre-season. I didn't expect the Commanders to be this good this soon, and didn't expect Deshaun Watson the Browns to stink out the joint so badly.
BUT Watson threw three TDs here in 2022, the Commanders just don't get after the QB and the Browns pass rush with Myles Garrett is miles better than anything Washington has faced so far. So there are dangers there in Jayden Daniels' biggest test, but as a huge believer I'm backing him to (just about) pass it.
Pick: Commanders
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Match Odds: 6/52.20 | 4/61.67
Handicap: Broncos -2.5
Total Points: 35.5
A lower points total than Miami vs New England shows you what the layers think of these two offences - and primarily Denver's smothering defence that kept Aaron Rodgers out of the end zone last week. Imagine what they'll do to Gardner Minshew? The Raiders have won eight straight against Denver but that streak ends here.
Pick: Broncos
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Match Odds: 5/23.50 | 2/71.29
Handicap: Niners -7.5
Total Points: 49.5
Kyler Murray is a good underdog and Arizona has the kind of home-run offence that can cause an injury-ravaged San Francisco more than a couple of headaches along the way. So I'm leaning towards the Cards to cover this spread, but can't pick against the 49ers from winning it.
Pick: 49ers
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams
Match Odds: 8/131.61 | 5/42.25
Handicap: Packers -3
Total Points: 48.5
Matt LaFleur is 4-0 against Sean McVay and with an average margin of victory of almost 13 points, but despite their injuries the Rams got a first win of the season with an improbable comeback win over the 49ers last week.
The Packers almost did the same against Minnesota but just came up short after an error-strewn perofrmance. Green Bay entered that game as the best in the league in turnover differential so as long as that was just an aberration then they should get the job done here.
Pick: Packers
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Match Odds: 2/13.00 | 4/111.36
Handicap: Seahawks -6.5
Total Points: 43.5
The Giants haven't scored more than 17 points in the last six meetings with Seattle, which the Seahawks have gone 5-1, but the G-Men have a four-day rest advantage to balance out making the long trip west. Also, in this unpredictable season, six-point underdogs are 14/17 in covering the spread, and I fancy this one could be another. I just can't see the Giants winning though.
Pick: Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 8/111.73
Handicap: Steelers -1.5
Total Points: 43.5
There may not be too many poinys in Sunday Night Football even if the Colts managed to win something of a shootout against the Steelers last week, expect Pittsburgh's defence, at home, to be back to its stingiest.
Dallas without Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons will be a bit toothless in defence, and they were already pretty weak defending the run, so Pittsburgh's run game and running QB Justin Fields should prosper.
Pick: Steelers
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Match Odds: 15/82.88 | 2/51.40
Handicap: Chiefs -5.5
Total Points: 43.5
The Chiefs are dropping like flies offensively so unless Patrick Mahomes can start catching his own passes this again is going to rest on KC's defence. The Chiefs are 8-1 against Derek Carr though so their defence will fancy restricting the Saints and letting Mahomes conjure up just enough to complete the job.
Unless Alvin Kamara goes nuts then the Saints, playing an outdoor game for the first time this season, will likely come up short.
Pick: Chiefs