NFL Week 18 betting tips: Win-and-in for Jags as Chiefs chase top spot

• Just three play-off spots remaining but plenty of movement expected

• Packers, Lions & Seahawks fight for final NFC spot

• Titans @ Jaguars showdown a decider for the AFC South title

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This is it! The final weekend of the regular season where there's just three play-off spots remaining but plenty to be decided in terms of seedings and match-ups.

Going into Week 18, 19 teams are still in the running for the Super Bowl and we still don't know who'll be top seeds, getting a crucial bye week and home field advantage.

And with every game a divisional one to end a thrilling regular season, there's hardly any encounter that doesn't have something riding on it.

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Saturday night double-header

Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)

Match Odds: 1/4 | 16/5
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Points Over/Under: 52.5

A win gives the Chiefs the No.1 seed in the AFC, even if it may not mean a home AFC title game, but it's still important they do the job against a divisional rival with nothing to lose.

The Raiders rolled the dice on Jarrett Stidham at QB last week and it almost paid off as he slung it everywhere while they went toe-to-toe with the top 49ers defence - just losing out in overtime.

More of the same from Stidham and Davante Adams will make Patrick Mahomes have to work for this, and put even this lofty points total in jeopardy.

This game could be really fun, and anything can happen in Vegas, so I'm happy to back the Raiders to keep it relatively close in a shootout on the strip.

Tennessee Titans (7-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

Match Odds: 9/4 | 4/11
Spread: Jags -6.5
Points Over/Under: 39.5

Two teams heading in polar opposite directions meet with everything on the line in Jacksonvllie, with the Jags riding a four-game win streak facing a depleted and beleaguered Titans outfit that have dropped six straight and will start the underwhelming Josh Dobbs at QB.

Doug Pederson's Jags would be just the third team ever to start 2-6 and make the play-offs, yet their big favourites here with seemingly just Derrick Henry, who the Titans rested last week, standing between them and a first post-season appearance since 2017.

Jacksonville stunned the Colts in the last game of last season so know what it's like to fall at the final hurdle, and with Trevor Lawrence purring if they just take care of Henry then they'll make it through - and be a danger to the big boys in the wildcard round.

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Week 18 Sunday Schedule

Detroit (8-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Match Odds: 9/5 | 4/9
Spread: Packers -4.5
Points Over/Under: 49.5

We'll start Sunday with the last game of the regular season and it's a whopper with the Packers and Lions fighting for the last remaining NFC play-off spot in front of a national TV audience.

Green Bay have won four straight and everything else has gone their way meaning now Aaron Rodgers just needs to engineer a win to sneak into the play-offs.

The one caveat on how big a game this will be is that Detroit can only get in if the Seahawks lose their game earlier in the day - but even if their hopes are dashed just before kick-off these Lions will be giving it everything regardless.

Detroit are lively but Green Bay have been putting it all together in all phases, they've got Rodgers, they're at Lambeau and they'll have all eyes on them - you have to believe they'll get it done.

Los Angeles Rams (5-11) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

Match Odds: 21/10 | 2/5
Spread: Seahawks -6
Points O/U: 41.5

The beauty of divisional games in Week 18 is that even though the Rams are done, they'd like nothing more than to deny Seattle a play-off spot and can play loose while the Seahawks soak up the pressure. This one will be tough.

New England Patriots (8-8) @ Buffalo Bills (12-3)

Match Odds: 12/5 | 1/3
Spread: Bills -7
Points O/U: 43.5

The Bills have really been through it this week and who knows the mental and emotional toll Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest has taken on this squad, but Hamlin's improvement and rallying cry from his father mean Buffalo could be an emotional jauggernaut that's impossible to stop.

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Top seed is also still in play for Buffalo, while New England just need to win to make a 13th play-off appearance in 14 years. Bill Belichick's side have been poor recently though and if Buffalo can collectively harness all their emotion in the right way they could blow the doors off this one.

New York Jets (7-9) @ Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Match Odds: 29/20 | 8/13
Spread: Dolphins -3
Points O/U: 37.5

Both of these have fallen off a cliff with each suffering five straight defeats, but Miami still somehow have one last chance with a win here and New England loss in Buffalo enough to get them in the play-offs.

Rookie Skylar Thompson could start for struggling Miami, who are still loaded on offence but it's just not clicking without Tua Tagovailoa. Against the Jets' fourth-ranked defence and with New York starting Joe Flacco, this one could get ugly.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

Match Odds: 16/5 | 1/4
Spread: Bengals -9.5
Points O/U: 39.5

Again we don't know what condition emotionally the Bengals are in and they have already won the AFC North, but this is still a crucial game as defeat could mean a coin toss to decide which of these two teams is at home for the rematch in the play-offs.

Baltimore without Lamar Jackson have been pretty ordinary though and they've lost their last two divisional fixtures, so this should be a home win all things being equal.

Cleveland Browns (7-9) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

Match Odds: 23/20 | 8/11
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Points O/U: 40.5

Pittsburgh have won their last three and five of six to incredibly still have an outside shot at the play-offs with a win here coupled with losses for the Patriots and Dolphins.

TJ Watt is a destroyer, rookei QB Kenny Pickett is gorwing into the role and the Browns have been blowing hot and cold all season. Simple home win this one.

New York Giants (9-6-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Match Odds: 13/2 | 1/10
Spread: Eagles -14
Points O/U: 43.5

Philly have lost the last two without Jalen Hurts and ideally they'd have him play some part in this game, take the win, and have a week off on a bye after clinching the NFC top seed.

The good news for the Eagles, who just need a win to back top spot, is that its hard to see the Giants playing Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley too much with Big Blue locked in as a sixth seed.

Dallas Cowboys (12-4) @ Washington Commanders (7-8-1)

Match Odds: 1/3 | 13/5
Spread: Cowboys -7
Points O/U: 40.5

The Cowboys could yet end up as NFC East champs and top NFC seeds, but they'll need to win in Washington and see the Eagles and the 49ers lose to achieve all that.

At least the win part shouldn't be much of a problem with the Commanders starting Sam Howell at QB. The one warning is that the Cowboys could start pulling their starters if they're up big or Philly build a big lead against the Giants back-ups.

Arizona Cardinals (4-12) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

Match Odds: 13/2 | 1/10
Spread: 49ers +14
Points O/U: 39.5

San Francisco are also still in the top seed hunt but need a win over lowly Arizona and Philly to slip up to pinch the only play-off bye available. It's a tricky game to manage for Kyle Shanahan, who will just hope to get a big early lead and ease down to the finish.

You can't really make much of a case for the Cardinals at all especially as the Niners defence will be an angry unit looking to make a point after being ripped by the Raiders last week.