NFL Week 15 tips: Bills to freeze out Dolphins & book play-off spot

• Saturday night triple-header in Week 15 as play-off race hots up

• Five teams can book play-off spots over this week

• Get a £5 Free Bet Builder on Bengals v Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

Match Odds: 4/7 | 29/20
Spread: 49ers -3
O/U: 43.5

It's win-and-in time for the San Francisco 49ers who can win the NFC West with a victory in Seattle, which they're fancied to do as the NFL's hottest team on a six-game win streak.

They're 9/1 for the Super Bowl but would a whole lot shorter if they could keep a quarterback fit - with their rookie third-stringer Brock Purdy questionable with an oblique injury.

Purdy was the last pick of the 2023 Draft, so carries the rather cruel 'Mr Irrelevant' tag, but he's been Mr Impressive so far with fine displays in wins over Miami and Tampa Bay. If he's fit then Seattle away will be a different challenge altogether.

Seattle were in charge of this division a month ago but have lost three of four while the Niners have won their last four by double digits and haven't allowed more then 16 points in six games. Also expect another big game from Christian McCaffrey.

Saturday

Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3)

Match Odds: 7/4 | 9/20
Spread: Vikings -4.5
O/U: 48.5

The Vikings can win the NFC North for the first time in six years with a win, but even against a Colts team that's dropped their last three Minnesota are far from comfortable favourites.

Nine of their 10 wins have come by one score and their defence is becoming a huge liability that even the Colts could exploit. Indy were blown out in the fourth quarter by Dallas but should've beaten the Eagles two weeks earlier.

Baltimore Ravens (9-4) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Match Odds: 6/5 | 4/6
Spread: Browns -2.5
O/U: 37.5

It's a case of who you trust less in this one but even with a third-string QB I'd rather take the Ravens as underdogs than the Browns as favourites. Cleveland are basically out of contention but Baltimore are still finding ways to win even without scoring many points.

They've scored 39 points combined in their last three wins while allowing just 26, and with Cleveland shooting themselves in the foot regularly and having nothing really to play then give me a Baltimore squad fighting for the division any day.

This could be an ugly one, but Ravens running back JK Dobbins can shine at least, with the most reliabke thing about the Browns this season being how bad they are stopping the run.

Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3)

Match Odds: 5/2 | 3/10
Spread: Bills -7
O/U: 43.5

This is a tough spot for the Dolphins who have suffered back-to-back defeats out in California and now cross the country for a third straight road game against a divisional rival thirsty for revenge after losing the first meeting.

The Bills have reeled off four straight wins behind a nasty defence that's allowed just 22 points combined to the Pats and Jets, while Miami's flying attack has been grounded in the last two while their running games has disappeared.

It'll all be put on Tua Tagovailoa but he's gone cold that last couple of games, and he's abot to get even cold up in Buffalo when he traditionally struggles in lower temperatures

Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Match Odds: 1/2 | 8/5
Spread: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 43.5

This game is Betfair's special offer game of the weekend and with a free Bet Builder on offer you really need to be siding with the visitors to cover the -3.5 point spread at 9/10.

Get a £5 Free Bet Builder when you place a £5 Bet Builder on Bengals @ Tampa Bay...

Somehow Tom Brady's Bucs still lead the division but nobody fancies them to get any change out of Joe Burrow's flying Bengals who have reeled off five straight wins.

Tampa Bay have largely kept things tight at Raymond James, allowing over 20 points just twice in six outings and it's clear that Brady right now couldn't match Burrow in a shootout.

Yes, the Browns slowed Cincy down a notch or two but they've got too many weapons and Burrow is playing too well at the moment to think the Bucs can stop him.

They're looking like a side capable of getting back to the Super Bowl again and Burrow will raise his game even further facing the GOAT.

The Bucs won't get blown out at home, they never do, so I like the winning margin here to be just under two touchdowns to not only get us a slightly better return, but also cover us for Burrow having to pull out a tight win of three or less.