NFL Week 14 Predictions & Tips: Trust the Chiefs & Steelers and back 10/1 Sunday acca

• Back Steelers to get revenge on Browns at 11/102.11

• Take Chiefs to pip Chargers in 13/82.63 low scorer

• Back our Sunday NFL four-team acca at a tasty 10/111.00

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A healthy 13-3 last week for the game picks as Josh Allen was red-hot in the Buffalo snow and three home teams took home the Thanksgiving spoils, now we're back to regular action in Week 14.

Philadelphia and Detroit are chasing down play-off spots while the Chiefs could lock up the division yet again, but the banged-up San Francisco 49ers could be at risk against a Chicago side under a new interim head coach.

Let's get stuck right in to Week 14 in the NFL...

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NFL Week 14 Schedule

Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (11-1)

Match Odds: 29/202.45 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Lions -3.5
Total Points: 51.5

A huge game in the NFC to kick us off this week which should be a cracker. Green Bay have only lost one in eight, which was against the Lions as part of their 10-game winning run, but Detroit have a raft of injuries to deal with here, especially defensively.

Both teams are run heavy on offence so the lofty points spread may be a bit out of reach if they both pound the rock and chew the clock, and with Jordan Love dealing recently giving the Packers 3.5 points is a tempting option. But you can't pick against Detroit at home can you?

Pick: Lions

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) @ Tennessee Titans (3-9)

Match Odds: 6/42.50 | 8/151.53
Handicap: Titans -3.5
Total Points: 39.5

The Titans are 0-3 against the spread as favourites this year, but Will Levis has been much better the last month and the Jags have possibly the worst secondary in the game - plus they'll have Mac Jones starting in place of Trevor Lawrence. The Titans defence has been a bit crumbly of late so I'm hesistant over ths spread, but they'll score their points so Tennessee to score over 24.5 at 8/52.60 looks a nice bet.

Pick: Titans

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New York Jets (3-9) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7)

Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 1/31.33
Handicap: Dolphins -6.5
Total Points: 44.5

Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 against the Jets and Miami have won the last eight meetings at home - leading to the Jets being the biggest underdogs they've been all season. Aaron Rodgers was given plenty of help by the misfiring Seahawks last week but the Jets still lost for an eighth time in nine and it's hard to see how they improve from here. Miami to cover here as they continue their unlikely play-off push.

Pick: Dolphins

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Atlanta Falcons (6-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Match Odds: 2/13.00 | 4/111.36
Handicap: Vikings -5.5
Total Points: 46.5

Kirk Cousins had a nightmare four interception day last week and now heads back to Minnesota after three games without a TD pass - I think he ends that run here with the Vikings susceptible to top wideouts. But while slinging it about can keep Atlanta close, they'll ultimately come up short against a Vikings side that knows how to win close games. Vikings by 1-6pts is 6/42.50.

Pick: Vikings

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New Orleans Saints (4-8) @ New York Giants (2-10)

Match Odds: 2/51.40 | 15/82.88
Handicap: Saints -4.5
Total Points: 40.5

The Giants are a mess - 0-6 at home this season averaging just 10 points, but don't get too cocky as the Saints are 0-3 outdoors and have plenty of injury problems, hence why they're only 4.5-point favourites against one of the worst teams in the league. I'll pick the Saints but not much would surprise me in this one - a player props game only.

Pick: Saints

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Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Match Odds: 9/25.50 | 1/71.14
Handicap: Eagles -12.5
Total Points: 45.5

Philly's biggest spread of the season after eight wins in a row, but Carolina have covered in their last four and Bryce Young has been much improved, and I could see them covering if only by some garbage time points. As the win looks assured for the hosts with the Panthers ranking 31st in the defensive DVOA metric, meaning Saquon Barkley can enhance his MVP claims as Philly jump ahead and stay there. Barkley is still 5/16.00 second favourite to be voted league MVP this year.

Pick: Eagles

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Celevand Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Match Odds: 12/53.40 | 3/101.30
Handicap: Steelers -6.5
Total Points: 44.5

Cleveland stunned Pittsburgh in the snow just a couple of weeks ago, so it'll be quick revenge exacted as the Steelers have won the last three home meetings by 10 points on average. Jameis Winston is great value but if he continues making mistakes this Steelers defence will jump all over him.

TJ Watt and Myles Garrett will take turns wrecking the game but Russell Wilson will prevail down the stretch in the second half. Initially I thought defensive struggle but Winston can sling it - I'll take Pittsburgh and the overs.

Pick: Steelers

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Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 1/31.33
Handicap: Bics -6.5
Total Points: 46.5

The Raiders ran the Chiefs close last week, but every team seems to do that and now they're making a long trip for an early kick-off having officially been eliinated from play-off contention. I'm glad I wasn't one of those to write off the Bucs, as they're tied at the top of the NFC South and could lead if the Falcons lose in Minnesota and Baker Mayfield does his thing and lead improving Tampa Bay to another victory.

Pick: Bucs

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Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 8/111.73
Handicap: Cardinals -2.5
Total Points: 44.5

It was a tight defensive battle between these teams two weeks ago, with Seattle's pick six the only TD of the game, and this one will likely go down a similar route. So we're talking small margins again here but after weighing up home field advantage for Arizona against six straight head-to-head wins for Seattle, I just fancy the Hawks have the Cards' number.

Pick: Seahawks

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Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

Match Odds: 4/91.44 | 7/42.75
Handicap: Bills -4.5
Total Points: 49.5

Seven wins in a row for Buffalo behind MVP favourite Josh Allen doing extreme things even for him. Matthew Stafford and the Rams offence offer a bigger array of firepower than the Bills have seen defensively for a while, but how the hosts stop this Bills machine from hitting 30 points for a seventh straight game is another matter.

If Allen doesn't slice them up, James Cook will run through them - either way you have to fancy them to continue their fine win streak.

Pick: Bills

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Match Odds: 13/82.63 | 1/21.50
Handicap: 49ers -3.5
Total Points: 44.5

This is a tough one - as new Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown improved Caleb Williams' play no end when taking charge of the offence, and Chicago did after all almost beat the Lions but for some woeful clock management from former boss Matt Eberflus. Add to that San Francisco's slump and massive injury problems - including Christian McCaffrey again.

So this one is all on Brock Purdy, but I just wonder if there are a few too many problems for him to solve. Chicago will get their points and should be able to keep it close but they've found so many ways to lose close games, can we trust them on a long road trip? Betting wise I'm not backing San Fran as favourites but the Bears to score over 20.5 points at 11/102.11 gets my vote. And for the pick I'm going to stick my neck out and go with the Bears to cause the upset.

Pick: Bears

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Match Odds: 13/82.63 | 1/21.50
Handicap: Chiefs -3.5
Total Points: 42.5

The Chargers have been playing better than the Chiefs since losing to them in week 4, and their defence continues to record elite numbers - with only the Bengals and Ravens able to score more than 17 points against them. Offensively there's an issue though, with just 10 first downs and 187 total yards against a middling Falcons defence last week.

JK Dobbins is a huge miss in the Chargers run game, which only managed 55 yards at home to the Chiefs, and if standout rookie receiver Ladd McConkey's injury hampers him at all then the Bolts could really struggle to generate points. Four interceptions bailed them out against the Falcons, they won't get that luxury at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs obviously know how to win close games, and if Isiah Pacheco is back up to full speed then I'm even more confident the hosts dig out another. So I'll back the Chargers to score under 19.5pts at 5/61.84 and the Chiefs to win another low scorer.

Pick: Chiefs

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

Match Odds: 2/51.40 | 15/82.88
Handicap: Bengals -5.5
Total Points: 49.5

Joe Burrow continues to pile up the points but Cincy continue to find ways to lose defensively, and it looks likely to cose them a play-off spot. They're still just about alive but will need to clean things up a bit and not beat themselves as Dallas' defence and special teams have been pretty good of late. You have to fancy the Bengals here though.

Pick: Bengals

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