NFL Week 11 Predictions & Tips: Chiefs & Steelers in underdog roles & 7/2 Acca worth backing

• Can the Chiefs stay unbeaten in Buffalo?

• Back Steelers to upset the odds against Ravens

• Back three-team Sunday NFL accumulator at 7/24.50

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Our picks went 10-4 last week with a nice winner on the Bengals vs Ravens shootout in Baltimore and an agonising near miss in our 6/17.00 acca thanks to the Lions coming up a point short for us in their three-point win over Houston.

Now onwards to Week 11 that has the oldest rivalry in the NFL resuming in Chicago and two huge matches between the Ravens and Steelers and the Bills and unbeaten Chiefs.

Let's dive in...

NfL Week 11 Schedule

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Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Match Odds: 8/52.60 | 8/151.53
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total Spread: 48.5

The NFC East is at stake here in what could be another Thursday night thriller. The Eagles have won five on the spin mainly beating up on some bad teams - but like Philly the Commanders also only have one of their seven wins against a team currently above .500.

There's not much between them, but Philly are at home on a short week after a stroll against Dallas where they could use Saquon Barkley sparingly and keep him fresh, while Washington lost a tough street fight with Pittsburgh.

Jayden Daniels is a stud but Washington's defence is leaky against the run (142.7 yards per game, fifth worst) and can also get burnt on big pass plays - a rested Barkley and Jalen Hurts can do both.

Pick: Eagles

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Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Match Odds: 4/71.57 | 11/82.38
Spread: Ravens -3
Total Spread: 48.5

Lamar Jackson is 2-4 against the Steelers, who have won seven of the last eight meetings despite largely looking an inferior side - and that's all credit to Pittsburgh boss Mike Tomlin. He's had Jackson's number and warmed up by containing Jayden Daniels last week (a Lamar Jackson light if you will).

So a lot rests on Derrick Henry's massive shoulders to pierce a defence that's held the Ravens under 20 points the last seven meetings - which is a problem as Baltimore have lost all three games they've scored under 25 points this season.

Add that to Baltimore being dead last in pass defence and worst in giving up big plays, which plays right into Russell Wilson's homerun hitting passing style, and that could be the difference in a close one. The underdogs have an eye-watering 23-6-3 record against the spread in the fixture, but I'm taking Pittsburgh to go one better and win straight up.

Pick: Steelers

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 8/111.73
Spread: Bills -1.5
Total Spread: 46.5

The champs have found all kinds of ways to win but will their luck finally run out in Buffalo? The Bills have won three straight against KC in the regular season but lost the last three in the play-offs. Josh Allen usually plays like a maniac against the Chiefs with nine TD passes and 292 yards on average in his three wins, while Patrick Mahomes has six picks.

Buffalo have been flawless at home, 8-2 is their best start since 1993 and they're vastly superior in turnover differential so they're justifiable favourites. BUT, having seen all of their games, I just can't get myself to pick against the Chiefs.

It's not just a 'feeling' though, there's some theory behind it. Buffalo are banged up at receiver and the Chiefs are third-best against the run in the league, Mahomes has cleaned up his interception problems and the Bills had some sloppy moments against the Colts last week. It'll go down to the wire again whatever happens, but I'm sticking with the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs

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Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Match Odds: 4/111.36 | 2/13.00
Spread: Packers -5.5
Total Spread: 40.5

Caleb Williams is struggling and I'm not sure what impact firing the offensive coordinator can have so suddenly after 23 offensive possessions without a touchdown. Green Bay's ball hawking defence coming off a bye is not what Williams wants to see next up.

The week off will help Jordan Love be healthier but more crucially Josh Jacobs should feast in the Bears' ropey rush defence. Back Jacobs to score in a Green Bay win.

Pick: Packers

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Match Odds: 9/25.50 | 1/71.14
Spread: Lions -13.5
Total Spread: 47.5

I'm never keen on two-touchdown spreads but if any game can produce a blowout it's the streaky Lions (won last seven) who pulled out a remarkable comeback last week against the slumping Jags, their woeful defence and head coach looking very much in the brink.

Detroit's Dan Campbell isn't a coach to allow over confidence so expect a professional statement game, Jared Goff to bounce back from a stinker in Houston and Amon-Ra St Brown to have a day. Instead of risking the spread though take Detroit to eclipse 30.5 points at 1/12.00.

Pick: Lions

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Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Match Odds: 4/111.36 | 2/13.00
Spread: Vikings -5.5
Total Spread: 40.5

I'm not convinced the Vikings will cover this with Sam Darnold making so many mistakes - but if there's a QB who can rival him in that it's Will Levis. Plus Tennessee's weird defence, which allows the fewest yards in the league but leaks the fourth-most points due to it's lack of turnover threat should enable Minnesota to edge this one.

Pick: Vikings

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Sunday's featured acca

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Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Match Odds: 11/43.75 | 1/41.25
Spread: Dolphins -7.5
Total Spread: 44.5

It's a long trip back from LA on a short week for Miami but a win can help make that more comfortable, and while Vegas coming off a bye levels things up a bit the talent gap is just too big. The Dolphins can ride their defence and run game to a win - I wouldn't trust them to cover so instead take the under.

Pick: Dolphins

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Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

Match Odds: 4/91.44 | 7/42.75
Spread: Rams -4.5
Total Spread: 43.5

The Rams face a long trip and big change in climate to try and bounce back after a dud on Monday - and the Pats will cause them plenty of issues if they're not sharp. I'm a big Drake Maye fan and expect him to show up again in a hard-fought contest. I'll take the Pats with the points but the Rams just to shade it.

Pick: Rams

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Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

Match Odds: 1/12.00 | 4/51.80
Spread: Saints -1.5
Total Spread: 44.5

This won't make the short-list of must watch games on Sunday, but I fancy Jameis Winston to come back to haunt the Saints. The Browns have had the bye to settle their new QB in, they have a far better defence and there will likely be some comedown after New Orleans finally won a game last week. A win where Atlanta missed three field goals by the way.

Pick: Browns

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Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Match Odds: 13/82.63 | 1/21.50
Spread: Jets -3.5
Total Spread: 43.5

I wouldn't trust either of these with my money, but although I'm sick of picking the Jets and them letting me down they have to be the play. They didn't turn up in Arizona last week and you wonder where the leadership is, but it's quite possibly Aaron Rodgers' last dance and if he can't get them up for a must-win game at home against a flaky Colts defence then they may as well pack up their season right now.

Pick: Jets

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Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 8/111.73
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Total Spread: 44.5

A lot here depends on how Denver respond to that heartbreaker at the Chiefs last week, as they're still well in the AFC wildcard race and have a defence that can really limit Kirk Cousins. Sean Payton should know how to rally his troops though so back at home I'll go for the Broncos and under points double at 5/23.50.

Pick: Broncos

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Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 1/31.33
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Total Spread: 49.5

All things being equal the Niners should win this at a canter - but coming back from a tough win in Tampa while Seattle had a bye evens things up a little. Christian McCaffrey returning is huge though and he'll no doubt have a big day, and allow Brock Purdy to follow suit in a home win.

Pick: 49ers

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers

Match Odds: 1/12.00 | 4/51.80
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Total Spread: 46.5

Joe Burrow has been stellar but the Bengals have managed to somehow find ways to lose to sit at 4-6 and nearing the last chance saloon. Burrow's got the smothering Chargers pass defence to deal with on Sunday night - which hasn't let a single QB get over 260 yards all season.

Jim Harbaugh's side can only win that way though, as they're just 1-3 when their opponents manage just 17 points, and the Chargers just aren't built to win a shootout, not managing more than 27 points in a game all season. Cincy's luck has to turn sometime, right?

Pick: Bengals

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Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Match Odds: 1/41.25 | 11/43.75
Spread: Texans -7.5
Total Spread: 42.5

At least the sun won't be the issue, but another home loss (Dallas are 0-4 at home this season) in front of a national Monday Night Football audience would be a bitter pill to swallow for Cowboys owner Jerry Jones - and could prompt a coaching change.

Houston should have put away Detroit last week but if they get up early here you wouldn't expect any of Dak prescott's stand-ins to maufacture a comeback. It won't be all one-way traffic but the odds here tell you all you need to know about how far Dallas' famous star has fallen.

Pick: Texans

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