UFC 272 Tips: Back Chaos to show why he's number one

Jorge Masvidal v Colby Covington
Sunday, 05:30
Live on BT Sport

The show must go on

UFC 272 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, this weekend, but preparations for the card has been plagued by injury, cancelations and postponements. Having already lost its two main events, UFC 272 looked in danger, but Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington stepped in to save the day.

The pair will now face off at welterweight in the main attraction, and it promises to be a spectacular contest. Covington is the former interim UFC welterweight champion, and Masvidal a former title challenger. Both men know victory in Vegas would thrust them back into contention for another crack at the title.

Gamebred has lost four of seven

Miami's Masvidal is a former professional boxer and professional kickboxer with a record of one win from one contest in each discipline. His mixed martial arts card makes for a more impressive read with 35 wins against 15 defeats. The 37-year-old rates as one of the most respected fighters in the division, with 16 knockout wins already on his card. He has the power to hurt any opponent.

Despite his CV, Jorge's recent form doesn't do much to inspire confidence with defeat in each of his last two bouts. Both losses were inflicted by Kamaru Usman, who beat him on points in UFC 251 and then by second-round knockout in UFC 261. Those back to back losses means Masvidal has now dropped four of his last seven outings.

The pre-fight betting odds on the Betfair Exchange make him the underdog for victory here. Masvidal trades at 3.7511/4 to win this contest despite his knockout power. In the method of victory betting, another knockout is 6.25/1 with the submission 30.029/1, and a points win 14.013/1.

Chaos has lost two of three

Covington is currently ranked number one in the world at welterweight, and the London 2013 world championships no Gi grappling gold medallist is out to show why. Chaos has a big year mapped out but knows his plans will crumble to dust if he doesn't beat Masvidal in Las Vegas. Failure to get the win would surely see him drop down the pecking order.

Colby has an MMA record detailing 16 wins and three losses with a good spread of results. He has eight wins by decision, four by KO and the other four by submission. In his three defeats, he has lost one by KO, a submission, and points reverse. What will worry fans of Chaos is their man has lost two of his last three bouts. He was stopped by Usman on UFC 245, KO'd Tyron Woodley but was then beaten on points by old rival Usman.

Despite those recent losses, Covington will enter the octagon on fight night as the betting favourite, and there's 1.351/3 available on the Exchange about him claiming a 17th career win. A second KO/TKO on the bounce is 5.04/1. You'll find the submission at 13.525/2 and there's a points verdict at 2.0811/10.

Back the former champion

Covington is a former UFC champion, decorated wrestler and grappling gold medallist. His journey to the top was derailed by Usman, but he's capable of bouncing back and recording a crucial win this weekend if he can avoid the heavy hands of his opponent.

Looking through the stats of both men, we note 10 of Masvidal's last 11 defeats have been on points. Five of Covington's last six wins have been on the scorecards. We'll follow that trend and back the favourite to win by decision.