England v Sri Lanka First ODI Tips: Take a chance on tourists in the chase

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Tuesday 22 September, 12:30
TV: Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka first ODI team news

England have a decision to make about an opening partner for Ben Duckett. One is to hope it is not the only issue that exercises their collective brains as fears about another tepid betting heat rise.

Tom Banton would make the most sense although Will Jacks and Jordan Cox would also stick up their hands. Rehan Ahmed would be the gung-ho pick. He has opened in the past. Joe Root and Harry Brook should be at Nos 3 and 4 respectively.

In the T20 series England rotated Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue while Gus Atkinson didn't get a game. One would expect Atkinson to return here. Sonny Baker can be used as the shock, rather than stock, bowler. Liam Dawson and Jamie Overton are in contention for the bowling all-rounder role. Although both could play.

Possible XI: Duckett, Banton, Root, Brook, Buttler, Cox, Jacks, J Overton, Rashid, Atkinson, Baker

Sri Lanka are bolstered by the addition of quality runs from Kusal Mendis, their skipper. They need him after a desperately disappointing show in the T20 series when they failed to be competitive.

The good news is that the balance of this XI looks pretty good. There is not the focus on power in this format and Sri Lanka are all the better for it. The likes of Charith Asalanka, who is not a T20 player, is much better suited to 50 overs. Janith Liyanage and Dasun Shanaka in the middle order are good options, too.

With the ball, they have four good operators. Asitha Fernando is their main pace in the pace department, supported by Dushmantha Chameera. He may come under pressure for his place from Dilshan Madushanka, though. Spinners Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana can be paired to give Sri Lanka a clear edge in one department.

Possible XI: Mishara, Nissanka, Asalanka, Kusal, Kamindu, Liyanage, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Chameera/Madushanka, Asitha

England v Sri Lanka first ODI pitch report 

The Durham weather, surprisingly for late September, is looking pretty good at the time of writing. No rain is forecast although there could be some cloud cover to assist the swing bowlers.

It has been decent batting in four of the last five ODIs there, going back to July 2019. Sri Lanka made 338 in that game against West Indies in the World Cup and hung on by 23 runs. Kusal is the only survivor from that day, though. More than 300 was busted in the other three, too. The outlier, unfortunately, was Sri Lanka against England in 2021 when they were rolled for 185. Five of the Sri Lankan XI that played that day could be involved.

In their last 30 games, Sri Lanka average 247.6 runs per game at a run rate of 5.4. They hit 21.3 fours and 4 sixes per match on average. Over the same period England are averaging 272.4 runs per game at a run rate of 6.2. They hit 24.8 fours and 6.2 sixes. That's the sort of gulf we'd expect in favour of the hosts but playing unders on total first-innings runs at 286.5 isn't the worst idea given that England number. And if Sri Lanka were to bat first you'd have a great bet.

England v Sri Lanka first ODI match prediction 

Sri Lanka are a better prospect in ODI than they are T20. They have won 13 of their last 22, taking two matches off the world champions Australia in Colombo in February last year. The problem is nine of those wins came at home and the challenge will be adapting to completely different conditions.

England did that when winning 2-1 on turners in Colombo in January. But it is also true that they are not as powerful over 50 as they are 20 overs. They have lost five of their last nine although they did impress in a 2-1 series win over India earlier this summer.

At some stage, Sri Lanka are going to give England a game. It may be this is their best chance. One wouldn't fancy them on the road that is Headingley, for example, in game two. What outsiders often need is a leveller, something to reduce the gulf. A bias for the chaser in ODI at this venue at 67% might be it.

At 7.87/1 on the Betfair exchange, that is the gamble. Wait until the toss, though, and make sure it is onside. We don't expect the odds to shorten but they may get bigger post flip.

England v Sri Lanka first ODI player tips 

Rehan is listed as a 17/118.00 chance for top bat. It was against Sri Lanka that he opened the batting at the start of the year. Kamindu Mendis has also opened for Sri Lanka in their most recent game so the 9/25.50 for top bat may have appeal. Otherwise, late-order winners for the visitors will catch the eye in case they get rolled again. Liyanage at 15/28.50 and Shanaka at 13/114.00 are perfectly acceptable options.

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