Giro d'Italia Stage 10 Tips: It's Girmay's day

What's the stage like?

Recovering from the tipstering disappointment of a 22.0021/1-recommendation on Stage 9 being beaten by the width of a wheel rim, hopefully this 194km route will bring more luck.

A flat coastal first half should be straightforward, but the stage will heat up in the second half, with a series of short, punchy climbs packed into the last 94km, including a category four just 8km out from the finish.

The course is likely too hard for the out-and-out sprinters. Assuming the breakaway is caught, it's a day for the puncheurs.

Who are the favourites?

Yet again, it looks ripe for a showdown between Mathieu van der Poel (4.804/1) and Biniam Girmay (7.206/1). Were the kick-up to the finish longer and steeper, van der Poel would be the most likely winner, but given the last 1.5km only rises by around 30 metres, it looks as if the greater sprinting prowess of Girmay will be enough to take stage honours.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Diego Ulissi (70.0069/1) - given his record in the Giro - always deserves a mention on a course like this, although he's likely better suited by what's coming later this week.

Caleb Ewan (22.0021/1) showed on Stage 1 that he's no slouch on shorter climbs, and if the likes of van der Poel and Girmay can't distance him before the closing stages, his odds will look generous, especially as he seems to have shown recovered form during his second place on Stage 6.

Mauro Schmid (16.0015/1) showed he can mix it with the market leaders here on Stage 8, but whether they were fully committed to a sprint for 5^th place then is uncertain. It would be no surprise to see Schmid close up here, but he doesn't represent value.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

After the blockbuster double day on Blockhaus (headline writers watch out) and the intervening rest day, General Classification contenders will be content with a quiet day, where they ride close to the front, staying out of trouble, and trying to conserve energy for a renewal of hostilities on Stage 12.

*Odds correct at the time of writing