Thursday Racing Tips: Key Timeform data you need to know including a Horse In Focus

• Penalty unlikely to thwart Carbine's hat-trick bid

• Carlton to keep unbeaten record for current connections

• The Outlaw can take advantage of modest mark

Improving Carbine Harvester has more to offer

7 (8)

Carbine Harvester (Fr)

• J: Harry Burns
• T: William Haggas
• F:

Carbine Harvester was the final winner of 2024 for William Haggas, who retains his 'Hot Trainer' flag, and the same colt has a good chance of also being the first winner of 2025 for his in-form yard.

Fitted with a tongue tie and ridden on both occasions by apprentice Harry Burns who's in the saddle again in Lingfield's six-furlong handicap (13:58), the son of very smart sprinter Hello Youmzain won both his starts in nurseries in December.

Despite still looking green, Carbine Harvester got off the mark at Wolverhampton when beating subsequent winner Oakley Boy and then showed further improvement when following up at Southwell last time when easily pulling three and a half lengths clear of Yes I'm Mali. Carbine Harvester picks up a 6lb penalty for that win which means Ardennes, who was third behind him at Southwell and re-opposes here, meets him on better terms this time, but Carbine Harvester remains the one to beat, heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 2lb and with the 'p' symbol showing he's open to further progress.

'Horse In Focus' Carlton still ahead of the handicapper

3 (3)

Carlton

• J: Sean Dylan Bowen
• T: James Owen
• F:

Carlton won both his previous starts at Chelmsford last month after joining 'Hot Trainer' James Owen and should take all the beating in his bid for a course-and-distance hat-trick at 18:30. By no means the first to thrive for joining his Newmarket yard, Carlton had dropped in the weights since winning at Newcastle early last year for his previous trainer Tracy Waggott but picked up the winning thread again following a ten-week break and a step back up in trip.

Carlton raced freely when winning on his stable debut and then followed up a week later under no more than hands and heels by three quarters of a length from Lumberjack, earning the 'Horse In Focus' flag for managing to come from well off the pace despite a slowly-run race.

He therefore gives the impression he's well ahead of his mark at present and a 2lb rise in the weights for his latest win shouldn't be enough to prevent him completing his hat-trick with upwards of 3lb in hand over his rivals on the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.

The Outlaw has clear claims on Timeform ratings

3 (13)

The Outlaw (Ire)

• J: Hector Crouch
• T: Ralph Beckett
• F:

The Outlaw is bred to be a lot better than the BHA mark of 61 he races from in Chelmsford's mile handicap for three-year-olds (19:00). As well as being by New Bay out of a mare who has produced a couple of winners who achieved useful Timeform ratings of 105 and 102, his price-tag of €160,000 as a yearling also suggests that he has the profile of one destined to be better than just a modest handicapper in time.

The Outlaw earned his lowly handicap mark after showing relatively little at two in his three starts at around six furlongs, making him something of a rarity in Ralph Beckett's stable which was full of two-year-old winners last season. However, The Outlaw left those efforts well behind on his recent handicap debut over seven furlongs at Southwell when edged out only late on by a more battle-hardened rival in Whizz By.

Off the same mark here and stepping up another furlong in trip, he's very much of interest heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 3lb.

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