Saturday Racing Tips: Key Timeform data including a 9/2 chance in the Welsh National

• Sandown winner Macktoad to go in again 

• Mambonumberfive fancied to see off elders 

• Handicapper may have underestimated Rock My Way

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Chepstow, 13:40 - 'Large P' key to Moore ace's chance

Macktoad, who has a Timeform 'Large P' attached to his rating denoting significant improvement is expected, looked a smart prospect when seeing off a couple of today's rivals (Kaldoun Des Rocs second, Klycot - a winner since - fourth) on his Sandown hurdle debut.  

Though he was possibly helped by racing on the lead, it was an emphatic success and he shaped as if he would come on for the run/experience, too.

The pick of the three 'Horses In Focus' in this Grade 2, Macktoad can enhance his stable's good recent record in this race, with Gary Moore landing it with Porticello in 2021 and Salver in 2023.  

Kempton, 13:55 - Pauling runner fancied to get into a good rhythm

A Grade 2 winner over hurdles at this course, Mambonumberfive made it two from two over fences when scoring with something in hand at Newbury last month, form boosted by the runner-up winning next time, and he could be up to landing the hat-trick with further progress to come.  

Ben Pauling's 'Horse In Focus' is only four, but he has the build of a chaser and has jumped very accurately on both starts to date. Receiving at least 6 lb from his rivals, he's fancied to follow in the footsteps of Sir Gino who also won this race as a four-year-old last term. 

Lump Sum has also taken very well to chasing and is feared most, ahead of Mirabad. 

Chepstow, 14:50 - Joe Tizzard to emulate his father

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings highlight the claims of recent winner Rock My Way (representing 'Hot Trainer' Joe Tizzard whose dad Colin won this in 2016 and 2018). 

The seven-year-old had so much in hand when a well-backed favourite at Ascot last time that even a 9 lb rise is potentially lenient, with the form of that 11-length win franked since by the third My Silver Lining finishing second. 

The trip and ground should both be ideal for Rock My Way who is fancied to see off the likes of Collectors Item, who is theoretically weighted to turn around recent course form with last year's runner-up Jubilee Express, who himself is a Timeform 'Horse In Focus' following his recent course win. 

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