Monday Racing Tips: Key Timeform data including a top-rated Horse In Focus

• Durham Castle remains with untapped potential

• Native Warrior shaped better than result in Lincoln

• Improving Durham Castle to pick up where he left off

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Durham Castle remains with untapped potential

Durham Castle got off the mark at the third attempt when a comfortable winner of a Southwell maiden in August and he built on that when easily brushing aside his rivals on his handicap debut at Goodwood the following month.

Durham Castle came with a powerful challenge to lead on the approach to the final furlong and soon had matters under control, ultimately scoring by three lengths in the style of a sprinter going places.

That victory earned him a 9 lb rise in the weights but he still looks fairly treated, especially with the prospect of more to come after only four starts. He's the only runner in this contest with the Timeform 'p' to show that he's likely to improve and it would be a surprise were he not competing in more valuable events later in the campaign.

Horse In Focus Native Warrior can show he's well treated

Native Warrior faded into ninth in the Lincoln on his return, one place behind the reopposing Alpha Crucis, but he can have that performance upgraded as he raced prominently into the headwind and also made his effort sooner than ideal given the conditions.

He may have finished in mid-division, but the way Native Warrior went through that race, leading between two out and the final furlong, prompted Timeform's reporter to issue the Horse In Focus Flag to mark him out as one likely to be of interest next time. 

It's still early days in handicaps for Native Warrior but he'd also shaped very well when third in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, leading home those who raced in the stand side group. He looks well treated based on that Royal Ascot effort and comes out 4 lb clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings, so stands out as the one to beat following his encouraging return in the Lincoln.

Top-rated Dutch Decoy given a chance by handicapper

Dutch Decoy hasn't won since July 2023 and the losing run stands at 20, but he's produced some good efforts in defeat during that time, most notably his second in the valuable Golden Mile at Goodwood last season, and he has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Dutch Decoy started the season 5 lb lower than when runner-up in the Golden Mile and he shaped with encouragement when fifth at Ripon, keeping on without being able to land a telling blow. He has struggled on his two subsequent starts, but those efforts both came in good-quality class 2 events, so he catches the eye returned to class 4 level having dropped another 5 lb since Ripon.

He's lurking on a dangerous mark and heads Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings by 4 lb, so this looks like a good opportunity for him to take advantage of the drop in class and snap the losing sequence. 

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