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Tony looks at every race on Royal Ascot's Wednesday card
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Five tips from Betfair's Exchange and Sportsbook
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Bets at prices from 13/27.50 to 21.020/1
You'd make Barney The Dinosaur appear a new age thinker if you ignore speed figures in your betting assessment of races, however much weight you care to give them - totally ignoring them is the stuff of idiocy, but it probably isn't worth getting worked up about - and none more so when it comes to Royal Ascot juvenile contests when there is so little form go on.
The Time Bandits have been talking up Born To Rock and Beautiful Diamond in the lead up to the Queen Mary at 14:30 and it shows how much their analysis is incorporated into the betting these days that the pair head the market. And have done for a while.
Oh, and just a quick weather update. They got 9.6mm at Ascot on Tuesday morning but it looks largely dry from hereonin.
Regular readers will know that I tend not to get involved in juvenile races, simply because it is essentially a guessing game - only two of the 28 fillies in the Queen Mary have raced more than twice - with nearly all of the field capable of marked improvement for their biggest day yet.
It is interesting that Ryan Moore has been booked for the French challenger and 16/117.00 chance Balsam, not least because this is only the second horse the trainer has sent to the meeting, with the 2016 Queen Mary runner-up Al Johrah (in the same ownership) being the first.
Relief Rally's opening 14/115.00 was promptly taken and she'd be my token selection as she is unbeaten, ground-versatile with decent time figures to her name, but I can't get involved with so many unknowns - not least how the draw and pace will unfold in a 28-runner cavalry charge, as you can't really do meaningful speed maps with so little form to go on.
But luckily the next race up is the 20-runner 1m fillies' handicap at 15:05, which is much more up my betting strasse.
Joseph O'Brien has a couple of lively ones in here in Yerwanthere and Adelaise, who arguably both should have won last time, but I could not believe it when the latter opened up at odds ranging between 25/126.00 and 20/121.00 on Monday morning - while her stablemate was a third of her price - though the Betfair Sportsbook odds-compilers had done their video homework and went just 10/111.00.
I will admit getting involved to small stakes at the big prices, as they were never going to last 24 hours, as I thought she should have been at least half that, so I am happy to back her at 11.010/1 or bigger now on the Betfair Exchange.
She may well drift back out and, if so, happy days. But she could easily go off favourite.
It sounds as though this has been the plan all season for her - she would not be alone there, mind you - and she should be coming here on the back of a win, as she met plenty of trouble in running before flashing home to be beaten just ½ length into third (2 ¼ lengths clear of the fourth) in a 20-runner handicap at the Curragh last month and a mark of 86 surely underplays her talents.
Her jockey, Mikey Sheehy, may have to take an early pull from stall 11, as there is pace immediately wide of her in 12,13, 14 and 15, and they will be keen to get across.
But, with a fair wind - and there is clearly scope for all sorts of trouble in this 20-strong field - then hopefully she will go very close here on just her eighth start, and her third for the yard (was bought for 75,000gns out of the last July).
Quick ground would be ideal for her but the ground dries quickly at Ascot. And, remember, she promised to be a good horse for the Meades last season, when she really should have won off a 2lb higher mark than this at Chelmsford.
If you want an outsider on your side then 50/151.00 chance Golden Spice is the one. She will surely look to go from the front from stall two and she is fairly handicapped off 84 if putting three modest runs behind here (she has beaten just one of 29 rivals in those starts).
Big if, but that is why she is 50/151.00 and likely be to nearer double that on the exchange come the off given that profile.
Market leaders Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage are obviously the two to beat in the Duke Of Cambridge at 15:40 with the surprise no-show of ante-post second favourite Laurel at the overnight stage, but Grande Dame and Queen Aminatu are very plausible each-way alternatives against them at 8/19.00 and 14/115.00 respectively.
There has been talk that Grande Dame will come on for her first run of the season and need this, which is clearly off-putting (if you believe it) - I suppose they could be readying her for the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket next month, which is obviously more valuable for her in breeding terms than this Group 2, which often cuts up badly.
But there are no fitness concerns for Queen Aminatu, and the opening 20/121.00 on Monday was quickly taken about her.
She is in good nick, she has course form, a mile is probably her best trip and she is a solid each-way poke, but this is probably a touch deeper than the betting suggests.
If you are betting, I expect Random Harvest to go on, followed by Prosperous Voyage.
I am not getting involved tipping-wise, for all I have had very modest each way bets on her, and Grande Dame to a smaller degree.
I probably should be betting and tipping in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at 16:20 , as no way should Mostahdaf be 25/126.00 in the wider marketplace, if you believe the official handicapper.
The relevant BHA bod has Luxembourg 1lb clear of Bay Bridge with a similar amount back to Adayar, My Prospero, and Mostahdaf.
So everything about my tipping MO says I should be siding with the Gosdens' colt, who was second in the Hardwicke last year and who has posted near Group 1 numbers in his two Group 3 successes (if not on the clock).
He was electric when giving Dubai Honour 3lb and a 2 ¾ length beating in the September Stakes last season, he showed plenty of boot when winning over an extended 1m2f in Riyadh in February (beat a 114-rated horse 7 lengths), and he didn't run too badly behind Equinox in Dubai the following month, a race that may have come too soon.
I think he is more about speed than stamina so, freshened up, I have to take my chances that he can make the grade here over 1m2f.
Back him at 21.020/1 or bigger on the Exchange. There is still plenty of 25/126.00 ot there bt I'd be happy with 20/121.00 plus. I'll settle at Betfair SP.
In the Hunt Cup at 17:00, I - along with everyone else, it seems - have been with Perotto for a while, but the obvious issue has been the tumbling price.
And I hate a tumbling price, more than the Blues Brothers' despised Illinois Nazis (watch the film, you will not regret it).
He was 16.5 on the exchange when myself and Racing Only Bettor colleague Dan Barber put him up on the Royal Ascot Preview show last Monday but now he is half that.
The case for him is as obvious as it is straightforward, as he is 3lb lower than when winning the Britannia over course and distance for Marcus Tregoning in 2021, he is 14lb below his peak career mark, and he couldn't have shaped much better over 7f on his debut for Roger Varian in the Victoria Cup here last time.
He has drawn very well in 30, given there is a lot of pace is around him, and the question is whether he would win this 30-runner more than once in every eight attempts as a 7/18.00 poke on the exchange.
On quick ground, with a trouble-free passage, I'd go yes.
Not on soft going though, so his supporters will have been relieved to see the early deluge stop at around 7.30am on Tuesday morning.
I'll be having a small press-up at his current odds, so I am happy to stick him up at 13/27.50 each way, six places, with the Sportsbook.
I have also backed the wayward talent Wanees ante-post at 33/134.00 and I am glad to see first-time blinkers on him as he is a quirky sort who could respond positively to them, but I do like not like his draw in five one bit. So I am not playing up as a result.
I have to have Intellogent as an on-the-day back-up though, as, alongside Perotto, he got the most obvious tee-up job for this you could possibly imagine at Newbury last time, following on from an excellent fourth in the Earl Of Sefton at 28/129.00.
Let's just say that no trouble was left unfound and he shaped incredibly promising there, and he finds himself racing off a 1lb lower mark than when beaten 1/2 length by Dark Shift in this race last year. I like his high draw and I could see him vying for favouritism with Perotto come the off. He was heading that way on Tuesday morning.
Back him at 8/19.00 each way, way six places, with the Sportsbook. Two plays at the top of the market but more than justified.
If you can get bigger in the marketplace, then obviously do so - there is actually some rogue 21/122.00 out there - but those are fair prices to take.
On to the Queen's Vase at 17:35 and there is no surprise to see Gregory favourite here as he poured it on late doors over 1m4f at Goodwood and the unbeaten colt is bred to excel now he steps up another extra 2f. His pedigree is all stamina, by Golden Horn out of a Park Hill winner.
But it's a definite pass at 7/42.75 in a race where any number of unexposed horses can step forward for a strongly-run race over 1m6f.
The alternative safety play was to stick up Circle Of Fire each way at 6/17.00 as let's just say he seemed to be ridden with an eye to a future from off the pace in the Lingfield Derby Trial last time.
Given the way he shaped at Lingfield - staying on nicely under hands and heels - and that he is by Almanzor out of a Galileo mare who won over 1m4f, hopefully he will see out the trip.
But I also like Joseph O'Brien's St Vincents Garden, who shaped better than a last of six to Peking Opera would suggest at Navan and showed a very gritty attitude to win at Fairyhouse over 1m4f last time.
Now, he looks all about stamina and I can see William Buick pressing on from trap one, or sitting behind likely leader Hadrianus.
There is some 14/115.00 in the marketplace, so 15.014/1 or bigger looks a fair guide price to aim at on the exchange.
My eyes glazed over for a second time of the day when looking at the 26-runner Windsor Castle at 18:10. That, and the Queen Mary, really are the most unattractive of betting mediums.
Now, if you gave me 10 places for each-way purpose, maybe we could talk.
Being serious, the Ballydoyle second string Alabama is interesting in first-time blinkers and stepping down to 5f again.
A beaten favourite on both starts, he has clearly disappointed them so far but Aidan O'Brien was talking this youngster up in the spring - as he was about Little Big Bear early last season, and he came on to win this race - and the headgear could be the key to him.
His half-brother won the Norfolk here and was third in a Flying Five in blinkers. I have backed him myself to small money at 18/119.00, so feel free to follow me in, but I'll stop short of putting him up as a selection as it really is a wild guess in an incredibly open race.
Good luck on Day Two.
Read Ryan Moore on his Day 2 Royal Ascot rides here.