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Progressive Perfuse could be well handicapped
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Don't give up on Theoryofeverything
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Baradar the shout in competitive closer
Day three of Royal Ascot and these big-field handicaps don't get any easier to solve - I'm beginning to think I've drawn the short straw here!
However, we'll plough on regardless, and despite all three of Thursday's handicaps looking as competitive as you'd expect, I'm quietly confident of big runs from the selections I'll be putting up.
The 1m 4f King George V Stakes (15:05) is always one of the best three-year-old middle-distance handicaps of the season and this renewal looks no exception, with any number of the 20-strong field likely to be plying their trade at higher levels as the year wears on.
The 'sweet spot' in official handicapping terms in recent years is to be rated somewhere between 88 - 95, and that makes perfect sense as those that tend to already be rated higher than 95 can struggle to give weight away to potential improvers.
A lightly raced improver that fits the trends to a tee is Sir Michael Stoute's Perfuse, a well-bred son of Lope De Vega who has won his last two races in novice company in impressive fashion, showing a versatility as regards ground conditions in doing so.
He made short work of a previous winner (who won again subsequently) at Nottingham on his penultimate start and then showed a neat turn of foot to take a similar contest at Doncaster last time.
Perfuse has some other big handicap entries later in the summer but strikes me as likely better than that level in time and an opening mark of 94 could well underestimate him to quite a large degree.
I'm writing this column before Wednesday's Hunt Cup, so in draw terms it's going to be a bit of a guessing game as to where you want to be drawn in the 1m Britannia Stakes at 17:00.
As mentioned in yesterday's column, theses straight-track races can often be shaped by where the main pace is and it looks to be high here, so I'm going to side with one drawn in double figures who should get a good tow into the race.
Plenty has to be taken on trust with Theoryofeverything, but he looked a real prospect when debuting in impressive fashion at Doncaster in April and connections were so enthused that he was flung into the Greenham at Newbury on just his second start.
He didn't run badly at all to finish third to subsequent French Guineas runner-up Isaac Shelby and looked a potential handicap blot last time at Chester, but he ran no sort of race there and it could be that three quick races in succession on testing surfaces had taken their toll on an inexperienced horse.
The selection has had a short break since then and it could be that we see a much-improved effort, particularly as he's yet to race on decent ground. If he was coming here straight off the back of that good Greenham run, there's no way he'd be a 20/121.00 shot and I'm more than willing to forgive his poor Chester effort last time.
Theoryofeverything will need plenty of luck in such a big field but retains lots of potential and his price is too tempting to ignore.
The pace projection looks more murky in the closing 7f Buckingham Place Stakes (18:10), so I'm going to keep things simple and plump for a horse who's caught my eye several times this season and just hope he ends up being in the right place.
Baradar only joined the George Boughey stable from Johnny Murtagh towards the end of last season but the move paid immediate dividends when he landed a gamble in a Doncaster handicap at Doncaster in November.
He ran a belter back at Doncaster to finish third in the Lincoln in April, form that I'm hoping is given a big boost in Wednesday's Hunt Cup. The selection then shaped much better than the bare result when sixth over this C&D last month, not ideally placed and also meeting trouble in the run.
There is a slight concern over the ground as his best efforts have come with cut, though the going was hardly rattling on Tuesday and a couple of his runs away from soft going have been too bad to be true, suggesting more at play than simply an inability to cope with a quicker surface.
This is a tough old race, so stakes are best kept on the low side, but I'm hopeful of a big run from Baradar.
Racing... Only Bettor Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview. Watch now.