Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot 2024 Tips: Tony Calvin believes in a 16/1 bet

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has a 16/1 ante-post tip for Royal Ascot

Tony Calvin returns with another early look at next week's Royal Ascot meeting, and our resident tipster has found a 16/1 bet to consider in the King Charles III Stakes on Tuesday...


It is quite remarkable how the pursuit and delivery of information and accuracy seems to irk some.

It's as if they would rather not know, and just take the rise instead. I know it is largely good-natured, so it's no biggie, though my guard does slip occasionally.

Take my comments here on Monday, for example, that I wouldn't advise any ante-post bets on Royal Ascot before knowing the current state of the ground.

As controversial comments go, that was towards the bottom end of my usual guff, but we now know it is good, good to firm in places, and that is important news for horses that want decent ground, such as Queen Anne favourite Inspiral.

Because the long-range forecast is hardly one of blazing summertime, with a bit of rain due every day up to the start of the meeting, as well as sub 20 degrees temperature.

Not a lot of rain admittedly, and an improved outlook now sees only around 10mm landing up until Monday.

However, the main site I use has another 7mm alone coming on Tuesday, from 7am onwards.

Now, that may change daily - forecasts a week out wouldn't be the most reliable - but that is the current state of affairs, so maybe we will be looking at good ground, with a touch of ease, for the opening day of Royal Ascot.

Either way, it's clearly not a game-changer for any horse, as it stands, though the targets of some may be decided by just how much dig there is in the ground.

For example, connections of Porta Fortuna could go either for the Commonwealth Cup or the Coronation Stakes.

As I wrote on Monday, my honest opinion is that punters are largely better off waiting until the final fields are known from Sunday onwards, when we will get enhanced place terms and more competitive prices, allied to the non-runner money-back scenario of day-of-race markets, as well as having a better handle on the ground, and knowing the draw.

And Wednesday will see the first set of five-day entries appear, for Tuesday's racing.

So I think there has to be a very good reason to play now.

With that in mind, I had a look at the 14 races that we have entries for, from Sunday night onwards.

I am going to home in on horses I would - and will - back at their current Betfair price, and that list consists of one.

Royal Ascot - 15:45 (Tuesday): Back Believing

Believing at 16/117.00 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook in the Group 1 5f King Charles III Stakes at 15:45 on Tuesday.

That's a stand-out price but any 14s would be fine. Maybe 12s, too.

The first thing to say is this looks a very winnable race, and Believing comes into the race on the back of a career-best success at Haydock last weekend.

Sure, that was only a Listed race but she fairly bolted up, and that looked an improvement on her narrow neck and ½-length third to Regional in the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup last season. She is also ground-versatile.

Regional is the Sportsbook's 9/25.50 second favourite in here behind Big Evs at 11/43.75. They look unappealing prices in comparison.

Believing undeniably has a hit-and-miss profile and she has to back up quickly here, but the price is surely compensation for the doubts, and a stiff five furlongs on a straight track could be her optimum.

Royal Ascot 2023 whole field.jpg

Trainer George Boughey continues in great form and he said after Haydock that she "will definitely run" in this 5f contest - providing she is fit and well, so not definitely, and she is also in the 6f QEII on the Saturday - so 16s (or 14s) looks big enough in a race where absolutely nothing sets a scary bar.

She has successfully backed up within eight days before, and hopefully she is as good as she looked last weekend, admittedly in a race in which you can pick holes.

One obvious negative is her inconsistency and the fact that she blew out here in October (when tried in cheekpieces, which have not been on before or since), but nothing is ever perfect when you play at 16s.

I just hope she features in the race confirmations on Wednesday and we get a run for our money on Tuesday, because if she does then we will be sitting on an attractive price, at the very least.

I'll leave it there; good luck.

Just off to post my CV for the next BHA CEO, Jockey Club CEO, BHA Chairman and head of Great British Racing.

I'm such a big runner for all four jobs that I may even have the acca.


GOING AND WEATHER

Royal Ascot: Good, good to firm in places (maybe 10mm of rain up to and including Monday; possibly 7mm on Tuesday)


Now read Tony's antepost preview of Saturday's racing here.


Listen to Racing Only Bettor's Royal Ascot 2024 Preview...


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PROFIT AND LOSS

2024 Flat season (day-of-race; Apr 26 onwards):

STAKED:  60
RETURN: 106.55
P AND L: +46.55
ANTE-POST: -6

2023-24 NH season:

STAKED: 127
RETURN: 143.4
P/L:    +16.4

April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season:

STAKED:  202
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L:  -33.1

March 26 2022 -April 15 2023:

Staked: 436
Returns: 643.6
P/L: +207.6

April 14 2021 to March 25 2022:

P/L: + 183.1

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