It was gut-wrenching to see Equality get blocked in for what felt like an age last week at Windsor and then be narrowly denied on the line, but he is back this week! Still, I am glad I "tread lightly" last week as I wouldn't have picked up any winners on the night looking back at the results. This week looks a bit more playable with plenty of interesting runners, and I am hoping loyalty can pay in the form of cash money.
Prydwen to relish step up in trip
The opening 17:45 R29 looks like a competitive heat, and I have no qualms with Carausius 3.55/2 heading the market - he is four from five here at Southwell and unbeaten on this new surface and has looked a handicapper to follow as he climbs the ranks. He is also lightly raced and represents a powerful yard in Charles Hills. Still, this is his biggest test, now up significantly in grade into a Class 3 contest for the first time, and the average rating of the horses he has beaten in his last three outings here at Southwell is 70.61.
He will need to improve significantly to continue his winning run. Although that is certainly not out of the question, Prydwen 4.03/1 has a similar profile. This is easier than his latest task when unlucky at Lingfield in R12 behind our winning selection Tregony.
Prydewn caught the eye, finishing strongly at Lingfield and hit the line hard despite coming from the rear of the field and being forced wide by a rival around the bend. His finishing effort gives confidence that this extra furlong will bring about further improvement, and his overall profile suggests moving up in distance will be beneficial.
He has improved a good deal this term, and despite being DSQ at Newmarket three starts ago, that was an excellent performance, and he has bettered that in defeat in two starts. He boasts a very progressive profile on the AW, having scored in two of his three starts, and he is clearly capable at this level, so he gets a confident vote to the night off to a flyer.
Deal me in...again
At 18:45 R31, Double Dealing 7.06/1 turns out for the second time in this year's competition, and he has me hook, line and sinker again. I won't cover too much old ground here, but you can read the reasoning behind week three's NAP here.
He had few excuses, in all honesty, at Newcastle and frustratingly finished strongly at the line to finish a never nearer fourth, but I am hoping that he may have needed that second outing after a gelding operation because he didn't match any of the speed figures he has done previously.
His best efforts have come when racing around a bend, Lingfield twice, Wolves and here at Southwell, where he scored early in his career. There's little doubt he needs to better his latest effort, but he doesn't have that much to find with many of these, and he is worth one final chance to get the job done.
Compensation awaits for followers a week on
In the 20:45 R35, Equality 2.68/5, due to go up four pounds, went agonisingly close for us last week at Windsor, and he can gain a well-deserved victory to end the night on a high.
It was a frustrating watch if you backed the sole selection in week four of this competition - and yes I will continue to mention it!
Equality was finally drawn well at Windsor after being better than the bare result at Goodwood, Ascot and Epsom on his last three starts, and found himself blocked off with nowhere to go. He eventually got the gap but arrived too late as the winner got the first run, and a short head saw him touched off. He should have no trouble getting a clear passage tonight on this straight track, and stall two should bare no effect on the result.
He is quite clearly thriving at the moment and looks one step of the handicapper, so in the hope that The Bell Conductor - who has a fabulous record here - is not fully wound up on the back of a 253-day break (has needed the run previously) - he should take some stopping.
I advised backing him at BSP rather than his opening odds.
Recommended bets
Back Prydwen in the 17:45 at Southwell @ 4.03/1 2pt win
Back Double Dealing in the 18:45 at Southwell @ 7.06/1 1pt win
RACING LEAGUE 2022
STAKED = 13
RETURNED =24.5
PROFIT/LOSS =+11.5
RACING LEAGUE P/L 2021
Staked = 30.5pts
Returned = 40.95pts
PROFIT/LOSS = +10.45pts