A fair bit has to be taken on trust where Gustapof is concerned, but if everything clicks into place he could prove absolutely chucked in from a mark of 98 as he returns to fences in this handicap chase.
The Rebecca Curtis-trained five-year-old is still relatively low mileage and he's had just one season with his current yard having previously been trained in France, where he showed a decent level of form in four chase starts, finishing runner-up on the last of them in January 2025.
It's probably fair to say he hardly set the world alight for current connections after that, where he has failed to trouble the judge in five starts, but they've all been over hurdles and the return to the larger obstacles may be just what Gustapof needs to recapture his best form.
It's also worth noting that the selection started off life on these shores from a BHA mark of 118 but now gets to race off just 98 on his return to fences.
It's a bit of a leap of faith, but I think it's worth taking the chance that a revival could be sparked by a switch back to fences.
Back Gustapof in the 16:20 at Ffos Las
Notable winners from Mark in recent weeks
As 0-75 handicaps go on the all-weather, this one is a decent contest and several come into it in fine form, not least recent Kempton winner Gunfighter who shouldn't be the least bit perturbed by switching back to a track where he's also tasted success.
There's a strong case to suggest John Butler's top weight is still well handicapped under a 5lb penalty when you consider he was competitive from marks in the mid-80s for his previous yard.
Piazza is another worthy of consideration, as she has been knocking on the door recently and will be looking to snap of run of three consecutive second-place finishes, though she is quite a keen-going type and I'm not convinced the step back to a mile from 7f will be ideal.
Both that pair merit the utmost respect, but I'm going to side with Decalogue, who could simply be a much better performer on the all-weather than he is on turf, which wouldn't come as a major shock considering his US pedigree.
Jamie's Osborne's son of Constitution found plenty for pressure to win at Kempton two starts ago, while I'm prepared to forgive his most recent effort, where the step up 1m 2f back on turf may not have suited ideally.
A mile on the all-weather looks the perfect combination for Decalogue and I'm hoping the likely strong pace will bring him into things late on.
Back Decalogue to win 18:30 Southwell
I've made the point in this column previously that I think it's always worth forgiving a horse one poor effort, more so when everything was positive up to that point, and that looks the case with Hypnotised in this 6f handicap.
Harry Charlton's nicely-bred three-year-old hasn't got his head in front this season but has run some fine races in defeat, finishing placed three times, all of them in significantly stronger contests than this one.
The pick of them was probably when narrowly beaten by Ryhthm N Hooves at Sandown in August, where Hypnotised would probably have won had he kept straighter under pressure and I suspect it was simply a lack of experience that caught him out there.
Good efforts followed at both Newbury and Doncaster, so it was somewhat surprising to see him quite soundly beaten at odds-on at this track last time, more so when you consider his sole success came on this surface as a juvenile.
I'm not convinced that was Hypnotised's true running at all and this drop in grade coupled with a step back up to 6f should hopefully see him get back on track.
Back Hypnotised to win 20:00 Southwell