Alan Dudman's York Big Race Verdict: Bradsell at 5/1 looks the Nunthorpe play

• Four places on the Sportsbook for Group 1 Friday Nunthorpe Stakes

• Bradsell at 5/16.00 and Washington Heights at 18/119.00 appeal for Alan Dudman

• Draw to play a crucial part for big sprint

Listen to Day Three York Ebor Festival Racing Only Bettor Tips...

Asfoora strong in the betting against young rival

We are drawing from the same wells with Big Evs and Asfoora - who meet for the third time this summer with the current score 1-1.

Asfoora's Ascot success was on a track that suited her, Goodwood for Big Evs was very much his course and terrain, and while York is quick, it's not quite as zippy as Goodwood, so in the venn diagram of their personal battle, they are meeting in the middle, but the market much prefers Asfoora.

Indeed, there was a big shift on the Sportsbook from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Both were level pegging on at around 10/34.33 and 11/43.75, but the move for Asfoora has been quite seismic, and the Aussie mare is now down to 13/82.63.

It's the biggest Australian sporting news since RayGun's Kangaroo breaking routine.

Windy conditions greeted us on Thursday, following on from the fast times and course records from Wednesday.

No rain is forecast for Nunthorpe day.

Who wins the re-match?

While Asfoora would be nowhere near the top tree of sprinters back home, her trainer and connections have seized the chance to take advantage of the dearth of quality in the UK and the tour continues. She's finished fourth in the Temple Stakes, scored at Royal Ascot in Group 1 company and finished second in the King George Qatar Sprint and she's held her form well.

Has she got one more big effort in her?

"You could just tell about 400 metres after the start she just came off the bridle. She's quick but they were a bit quick for her early. Big Evs controlled his own destiny whereas we were stuck behind a couple and got a bit of a bump which probably cost us the win but she's run well and we're more than happy just to be competing," said her trainer Henry Dwyer after Goodwood.

Although he's probably still recovering from the hangover post-Ascot. It looked quite a good night.

Oisin Murphy received a bit of criticism with many in the Twittersphere thinking he should have won on the mare. I didn't agree with that, Big Evs had his circuit and Asfoora just wasn't quick enough in that crucial part Dwyer mentioned.

Big Evs has stall 14 to contend with

Big Evs is one of the leading Timeform sprinters on ratings in the UK with a figure of 122, which is some way below the brilliant Nature Strip who earned 133 back in 2022.

Asfoora incidentally earned a bump up from 119 to 122 following her Ascot win, but might have been worth a couple of more with how the race panned out for her, as she was part of the near-side group initially before making her move closer to Big Evs.

It wasn't the strongest renewal at Ascot, though, so I can't quibble with that rating either. I'm in a very charitable mood.

The drift on Big Evs might be attached to his run in the Nunthorpe last year - when he was supplemented as a juvenile, but failed in his bid to become the first 2yo to win the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native in 2007. Or it could be the wretched draw?

Sprinters can have an off day, and he's come back stronger and quicker this year. He's also proved himself at the track with a lovely prep run for the season at the start of this campaign with a tidy success, to put to rest any talk of him not liking or handling York (a flimsy excuse if you were looking at that).

Mick Appleby said after his first run: "He's like a bull now and Tom said he's as good as he was in California, if not better. He just missed the break a bit and fell out the stalls, but Tom took his time on him. From two to three you just never know, but he was still showing the signs at home that he's still got it and he showed us that on the track too."

You do expect speed but I don't think he'll lead here if Ponntos does what he did at Goodwood.

Indeed, the Ponntos pace could be key here as he ran like the wind (3f wind) at Goodwood last time with his jockey unable to control him, and his speed was akin to being chased by the hounds of hell.

He was fastest out of the gates and ran a 10.18 at the second furlong, but by then he was cooked.

Ponntos is drawn in 1, Big Evs in 14 and Asfoora in 8, and Murphy will be happiest with that berth down the centre as he can pick where he can go.

Four places on the Sportsbook and there has to be an each-way runner

Bradsell is one from two at York and won by an astonishing 9L on his career debut on the Knavesmire and duly won the Coventry on his second start at Royal Ascot in that freshman season - it was some beginning for the horse.

He was third in Live In The Dream's Nunthorpe 12 months ago, with the draw playing it's part there, but he won the King's Stand earlier in the summer of 2023, but a setback in the spring this year meant he wasn't able to defend his title.

His trainer Archie Watson said: "It was frustrating to miss Royal Ascot, but the Group 1 sprints are mostly from the Nunthorpe onwards. Hopefully he can be running in all the five-furlong Group 1 sprints this autumn."

A comeback run in France last time was a perfect prep, and on official ratings at 116, he's one of the best in the field with that figure. The risk with him starting late this term is something to consider, but on the flipside, we are dealing with a far fresher horse who has won at the top level and still has few miles on the clock.

The race in terms of the betting in behind presents a flotilla of problems regarding backing or finding the third or fourth, as in truth, the rest don't look up to the top two or three.

I was rather embarrassed with the Ponntos selection at Goodwood, as he was just uncontrollable. He deserves to be 66/167.00 and 50/151.00 and while he may well be the driver of this race, he'd be better suited to the "Tavern Turn" at the Owlerton Greyhound track over about 10 yards..

The aforementioned Live In The Dream rocked the sprinting ranks 12 months ago with a shock win at 28/129.00 and took in some American racing before the year was out.

Since then, he hasn't looked the same horse in 2024 although drawn in five for Friday is one away from last year's spot in four and he made all the running then, but has his resolution waivered?

To enjoy the moments of light, you have to experience the dark, and at the moment, his form is in the latter despite an improved effort last time in the Goodwood King George.

At 9/110.00 he's an obvious each-way play at a track and a race he likes, and no doubt there's some pent up frustration from his trainer and connections as to why he hasn't recaptured last year's form.

Washington Heights has taken his form to a new level this season and is a real strong-travelling sort who I can see going well at the track despite doing most of his racing at 6f.

He ran well in the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes at the track at the Dante meeting in May behind Mill Stream (whom he had beaten previously), and his in-running price in the DOY was 1.261/4 from a massive BSP 20.76 to back up just how well he travelled.

Indeed, York seems to bring out those short prices in-play with him as he hit 1.021/50 in a Handicap over 6f behind Quinault last summer.

He found zip off the bridle last time at Ascot despite going again with his customary swagger, but the stiff finish caught him out.

He's a fascinating contender at a massive 18/119.00, as I am sure he will travel well, and with that 6f form with loads of pace here, he looks my each-way play with four places. Whether he is quite up to Group 1 level over 5f we will see, but York suits, he travels and he likes good to firm ground.

He might not last home, but we do have the four places.

Conclusion

While the private battle between Big Evs and Asfoora takes the headlines and reminiscent of the 1981 music charts battle between Joe Dolce's "Shaddap You Face" and Ultravox's "Vienna", I am coming into the race from a different angle with Bradsell.

The draw in three for Archie Watson's runner could be a big advantage as we've seen this week in the two days that the far side looks to be a happier place. Big Evs in 14 does worry me as the speed could well be low with Ponntos in stall one.

Washington Heights at 18/119.00 will travel well I am sure and from stall 10 he'll have to angle over, but he has 6f form and 5f at York could suit him with his high cruising speed rather than the stiff 6f at Ascot.

Now read more tips and previews for York from Betfair's team of writers here!