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Rain means Kevin's focus is yjr round track
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Saint Lawrence may outrun his big price
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Nashwa can overcome younger opponents
British Champions Day was created back in 2011 with the intention of making a big bang at the end of the British Flat season. It plays host to four Group 1 races, a Group 2 and a very valuable handicap and has produced many highlight reel moments over the years.
Because of its position in the calendar, it can be vulnerable to wet weather and that is where the meeting finds itself at present. The track have a provision in place whereby if the ground on the round track is heavy on Friday, they can switch the three races due to take place on that track to the inner course, a piece of ground that goes unwatered and occasionally covered by hospitality infrastructures during the summer.
That makes assessing those three races over longer trips quite tricky at this stage given that the ground on the inner course is significantly better than on the usual round course. With that in mind, I will focus my selections on the races on the round track which is assured of being at least soft and potentially even more testing.
Ascot 13:50 - Back Saint Lawrence
The QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes (13:50) looks to be a wide-open contest. The results of the most recent Group 1 sprints in Europe this year have shown how open the division is. What those results have also underlined is that one shouldn't be afraid to have a swing at one at a big price.
The one that I'm inclined towards taking a chance on in this contest is the Archie Watson-trained Saint Lawrence. The five-year-old has thrived since joining Watson this season, winning the Wokingham over this course and distance at Royal Ascot prior to finishing a close third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville.
What muddies the water is that he disappointed on his most recent start in the Haydock Sprint Cup, but he was notably weak in the betting on that occasion and that run appeals as being forgivable.
Returning to the course and distance that suited him so well in the Wokingham can only help and his run in the Maurice de Gheest on soft ground suggests that the prevailing surface won't be an issue for him. He is a very big price, but it wouldn't at all surprise if he outran it.
Ascot 15:05 - Back Nashwa
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (15:05) has attracted an outstanding field. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Paddington and the Dermot Weld-trained Tahiyra have led the way for their generation and gender over a mile this season, winning seven Group 1 races between them.
Paddington comes into this off the back of his first defeat of the season which came at the end of a very busy schedule. Freshening him up to return to his best off the back of that will be no easy task, but who better to have in charge than Aidan O'Brien to oversee it.
His form look to have more depth to it than Tahiyra's, but the daughter of Siyouni has scored with style points and it will be fascinating to see how she fares in against the boys for the first time in her career.
However, my preference is for one of the older brigade in the shape of the John & Thady Gosden-trained Nashwa. The four-year-old has looked better than ever this season, most recently finishing up the tails of some of the very best colts in training in the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes.
For all the depth of those pieces of form, Nashwa arguably looked at her very best when she was dropped to a mile for the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. The opposition wasn't nearly as strong as she has faced since, but she seemed very well suited by the trip, powering clear to win by five lengths.
The prospect of her returning to that trip against opposition of the calibre she will meet on Saturday is very exciting indeed. She has shown versatility with regard to ground during her career and, with this straight mile being suited to hold-up tactics, she might well take the scalps of her younger opposition.