Kevin Blake

Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Dutch Royal Playwright and Seaplane in Group 1 Futurity Stakes

Betfair tipster Kevin Blake
Kevin Blake gives his big race verdict for the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster

Betfair's tipster Kevin Blake puts up his big race verdict for the final Group 1 of the flat season at Doncaster in the Futurity Stakes and is advising dutching two outsiders to hit the frame...


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This is it! The final Group 1 action of the British and Irish Flat seasons is upon us with the Futurity Trophy Stakes (14:40) at Doncaster on Saturday. While my X timeline is full of #thejumpsareback discourse, I will greatly miss the top-class Flat action, so hopefully we can see off the last of the domestic Group 1 action by finding the winner of it.


Futurity Stakes pace map

As always, we'll start off the process by having a look at the likely pace setup of the race to get a feel for how it might pan out. Seaplane (3) can take an enthusiastic grip and has made the running in his last two starts over seven furlongs. He steps up in trip here but doesn't appeal as likely to be asked to change his run style over the longer distance.

Hotazhell (7) has been racing prominently and can help push the pace. Delacroix (2) made all to win a maiden earlier in the season but has been happy to race prominently in his last two starts at Group level and that seems likely to be the way he goes here.

Wimbledon Hawkeye (4) has been prominent in his last two runs and looks likely to want to do similar here. Royal Playwright (5) made the running on his penultimate start, but reverted to a prominent ride last time and seemed better suited by that.

Detain (1) made all to win in novice company last time but wouldn't be sure to be nearly as forward in this much higher-class race. Anno Domini (6) has been prominent in both his starts in novice company but steps up steeply in class here and might not be as forward.

To summarise, lots of these are proven stayers at the trip that are comfortable racing prominently, but only one appeals as being a natural front runner and that is Seaplane (3).


Dutch Royal Playwright and Seaplane each-way at big prices

Now, onto the contenders. Thanks, a quirk of the European Pattern, there are Group 1s for two-year-olds over both a mile and a mile-and-a-quarter at Saint-Cloud the day after this race which would threaten to thin out the fields, but it should be said that this appeals as being a well up to scratch renewal of this race. It often attracts a future star, but it is more rare for it to attract a field of this depth and quality, which is great.

The market is dominated by what are the three form picks in the James Owen-trained Wimbledon Hawkeye, the Aidan O'Brien-trained Delacroix and the Jessie Harrington-trained Hotazhell, with the unexposed pair of Detain and Anno Domini also take up a fair chunk of the market.

However, I am taking a minority view in favouring two contenders that sit outside that group of fancied runners. They are Andrew Balding-trained Royal Playwright and the Paul & Ollie Cole-trained Seaplane.

Listeners to the Weighed-In and Racing Only Bettor Podcasts will have heard me talking about Royal Playwright ever since he impressed in visual terms and very much so on the clock when making a winning debut at Salisbury in July. He stepped up in class for the Solario Stakes at Sandown after that but seemed unsuited by making his own running in what was a steadily-run affair and also looked ready for a step up to a mile. He duly got his chance over that longer trip in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last time and he ran great, finishing second to Wimbledon Hawkeye having rolled left into the dip and stayed on strongly once meeting the rising ground again in the final furlong.

This more orthodox track promises to suit Royal Playwright much better and what is likely to be softer ground than at Newmarket (Timeform called it good-to-soft rather than the official description of soft) will also hold no fears for him. I could see him improving again and very much getting involved in the mix of the finish.

The other one I like is the Paul & Ollie Colt-trained Seaplane. Given he is a stoutly-bred son of Golden Horn (half-brother to Sumo Sam, Group 2 winner over 14f), it was a surprise to see him debut as early as he did back in May. He made a solid start when second in a maiden at Leicester and was declared for the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot but was a non-runner on the day.

He didn't reappear again until a seven-furlong maiden at Ascot in early-September where he ran creditably to finish second. That form put him well clear of his rivals in his next run in a maiden at Newmarket later that month and he also had the advantage of experience over the unraced horses, but even considering that, he produced what was a very impressive performance both visually and, on the clock,

Soft ground will be no problem at all for him and the longer trip should very much suit him too. Given he has an official rating of just 95, his rivals might underestimate him and allow him to do his own thing in front. This would be a mistake, but it's hopefully it's one that they make.

I feel both Royal Playwright and Seaplane are overpriced. Play it whatever way suits you best, be it two individual win and place bets or perhaps dutching them in the win market. If it's your cup of tea, a reverse forecast might not be a bad idea either, just in case.

Best of luck!


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