Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Springwell Bay to go well on Handicap Chase Debut at Cheltenham

• Kevin Blake New Year's Day Big Race Verdict

• The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase is the race in focus

• Springwell Bay gets the nod on handicap chase debut

• Get a completely Free Bet on horse racing multiples on New Year's Day

Timeform Superboost

Springwell Bay is fancied to run very well in the 14:05 at Cheltenham today having not finished outside of the first four in his last six completed starts.

The Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted his price to finish in the Top 4 today from 3/101.30 to 1/12.00! To take advantaged of this superboost simply click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please note. This superboost is provided by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our writers or tipsters.

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The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (14:05) is the main event on New Year's Day at Cheltenham and it has attracted a competitive field of runners of varying levels of experience.

The weather forecast is worth a mention at the outset as while the ground is described as good-to-soft at the time of writing, it is expected to rain from Tuesday evening into Wednesday during racing. The wind is also likely to be strong to the extent that a yellow wind warning is in place it could cause some problems for the meeting going ahead. Based on the information we have, proceeding on the assumption of soft ground and possibly even more testing than that seems sensible.

The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase pace map

In terms of the likely tempo, the race should be run at least at a solid pace as there are a few candidates to push the pace. Lisnamult Lad has made the running in his last two starts in competitive handicap chases.

Gemirande has made much of the running in his last two starts in competitive handicap chases. Lounge Lizard has helped push the pace in his last two starts over fences.

Colonel Harry is a free goer that has helped push the pace in his last three starts. Hitman likes to be prominent.

Midnight River is often prominent and can occasionally make the running. Seddon is tactically versatile, but has made the running to good effect in the past.

Springwell Bay gets the nod on handicap chase debut

4

Springwell Bay

• J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
• T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
• F:

Cogent cases can be made for many of the contenders for this race, but the one I like the most for it is the Jonjo & AJ O'Neill-trained Springwell Bay. The seven-year-old has a different profile to his rivals in that he is far less exposed having had just three runs over fences and it is that lack of exposure that makes him attractive on his handicap chase debut.

His first start over fences couldn't have gone much better as he won a Listed novice chase at Chepstow in good style by 1¼ lengths from Insurrection. He was prominent in the market for his second start over fences in another Listed novice chase at Cheltenham's November meeting and the step up to three miles was expected to suit him given he seemed to show the stamina for that trip when racing over hurdles last season. However, it transpired that the step back up in trip possibly wasn't ideal for him as he faded to finish third beaten 4½ lengths having raced more freely than ideal.

His connections may well have taken the same view on the trip, as they dropped him back to two-and-a-half miles for his next start in a novice chase back at Cheltenham. He acquitted himself well that day against some highly-regarded rivals, coming up second bred against the Grade 1-winning novice hurdler Jango Baie to whom he was conceding 8lb.

Crucially, the conditions of that race read that "excluding the winner, the Official BHA Rating of any horse taking part in this race will not be increased due to performance in this race, provided the horse has had at least four prior completed runs over Steeple Chases or Hurdles combined."

Thus, Springwell Bay was exempt from what would likely to have been a rise in the weights based on his performance level and thus his unchanged mark of 145 looks quite attractive now that he enters handicap chase company for the first time.

This mid-range trip appeals as being his best distance, but as much as anything else, the promise of a more strongly-run race in front of him is a big factor in making him the selection in this race. He very much looks the type that will appreciate being ridden with some patience off a strong pace and looking to strike late. His connections might well have one eye on the Novices' Handicap Chase over two-and-a-half miles at the Cheltenham Festival and this looks to be the ideal pot to have a swing at before attentions are turned to March with him.

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