Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: French raider fancied in King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

• A field of five for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

• Outsider likely to set pace but others have options from the gate

• Calandagan fancied to get revenge over Jan Brueghel says Kev

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The King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (16:10) is one of the main events of the entire Flat season. Like many of the tip-top all-aged Group 1s in this part of the world, small fields have come to be the norm rather than the exception.

This year's renewal of the race may have only attracted five runners, but it is a very high-quality contest featuring some of the very best middle-distance turf performers on the planet. 

O'Brien outsider likely to set the pace for stablemate

The ground is set to be quick and from a pace perspective, on paper the race looks relatively straightforward. Aidan O'Brien runs Continuous and the St Leger winner of 2023 has routinely been employed as a pace maker for his stable mates.

There will be a widespread assumption that he will play that role for his stable mate Jan Brueghel, the St Leger winner of 2024, as he did just that for him in the Coronation Cup last month. That seems very likely to be the role he plays once again, but it is worth remembering than he can occasionally miss the kick. 

Indeed, he missed the kick by around six lengths in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He did make his way to the lead after two furlongs, but his tardiness at the gates didn't help the early rhythm of the race and the inefficient effort he had to make to recover the lost ground at the start meant that he couldn't carry the field along for as long as he would have been able to had he started on terms.

With that in mind, while Continuous will most likely make the running at a stronger-than-even pace, it is worth considering how the early stages of the race might look if he is a bit slow to start and has to loop the field to get to the lead.

Jan Brueghel wears first-time cheekpieces and stays further than this, so he seems likely to go forward from the gates and get prominent.

A question that will be answered in the early stages is how positive William Buick wants to be on Rebel's Romance. Stall one can be a slight burden in these top Group 1 races, as Buick will have to be decisive in his early actions to secure the position he wants. If he wants the box seat sitting behind Continuous, he'll have to be very positive to maintain the rail position before Jan Breughel crosses him.

On the other hand, Buick may not want to put himself in a box with Continuous in front of him and Jan Breughel outside him, so what he does straight from the gates will be fascinating.

Kalpana and Calandagan have straighforward options from the gate

Kalpana makes her return to a mile-and-a-half and Oisin Murphy perhaps has the most straightforward set of options in front of him from stall five. She likes to race prominently, so she can go forward and look to slot in, most likely one off the rail behind Jan Brueghel, but cover is not a necessity for her.

Calandagan is the other straightforward one in the race, as he seems sure to drop in and be ridden with patience by Mickael Barzalona, for all that he will be hoping that Continuous breaks on terms and ensures an end-to-end pace.

French raider gets the nod

So, we have a good idea of what the shape of the race is, but which one of them is going to win? I have regard for Kalpana and suspect she will win another Group 1 at this trip, but it may not come until she meets softer ground than this.

Rebel's Romance has had a better preparation for this year's renewal of the race than he did prior to finishing a well-held third in it last year, but it is difficult to see him being quite good enough to win a race of this quality at this hour of his career.

Thus, it boils down to a rematch from the Coronation Cup between Jan Brueghel and Calandagan.

There was only ½-length between them on that occasion and while I have no stones to throw at Jan Breughel, there are a couple of reasons to think that Calandagan might be a little bit better here than he was there.

His trainer feels that he might not have been cherry ripe on what was his first start in two months after returning from Dubai and Epsom as a track didn't appeal as being ideal for him. He was really impressive over this course and distance in the King Edward VII Stakes and looked back to his best when bolting up in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time.

There is unlikely to be much in it, but it is Calandagan that gets my vote. 

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