Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Mostabshir the one to favour in Ayr Gold Cup

• Kevin Blake gives his Ayr Gold Cup Verdict

• 25 runner handicap proves tricky

• Quick ground and draw to play a big factor

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We find ourselves in extraordinary times. Never mind all the geopolitical strife, societal turmoil and a looming crisis seemingly around every corner, it is when we are greeted with the strong likelihood of an Ayr Gold Cup being run on good-to-firm ground whilst the other featured meeting on the afternoon at Newbury is threatened with torrential rain. What next? Nicky Henderson giving Constitution Hill a vigorous and swashbuckling campaign? Bizarro World indeed.

Anyway, on we go.

The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (15:35) is always one of the most fiercely-competitive sprint handicaps of the season. Mind, the data suggests that in the last decade at least it hasn't been one of the most difficult puzzles of its type to solve. Indeed, six of the last 10 winners (including one that was shared) have had starting prices of 8/1 or shorter. Time will tell whether this year's renewal fits into that group, though the fact it is set to be run on ground firmer than good should help uphold recent form book evidence.

Where is the pace?

A fair starting point for any big-field sprint handicap is always to have a look at the pace setup to see if any hot or cold zones with regard to potential pace can be identified. The first thing to say is that for a race of this type, the potential pace picture isn't exactly sizzling hot. In fact, it is on the cooler side.

In terms of the best and strongest pace candidates in the race, they are Sergeant Wilko (9) and Lethal Levi (20) at opposite ends of the draw. Amongst the list of secondary pace which I class as occasional and/or recent front runners, the spread is more so middle-to-high including Ramazan (14), Jordan Electrics (17), Silky Wilkie (19) in first-time visor, Dare To Hope (21) and Northern Express (23).

Taken as a whole, middle-to-high definitely has the look of the hottest sector of the pace map. That may be of slight concern for supporters of the current favourite American Affair (4) as well as Orazio (3) who are drawn on the opposite side of the track.

Room Service has to be respected

One that is drawn is what looks to be the preferred section of the track is the Kevin Ryan-trained Room Service and I found myself tempted by him. He progressed really well as a juvenile last season, closing out his campaign by winning a very big pot in the Weatherby's Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster a year ago. While his season started off with two disappointments in the Greenham Stakes (didn't look to appreciate the longer trip) and the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury, he very much got back on track when winning a six-furlong handicap at Pontefract in July off a mark of 100.

It's interesting that his connections then choose to operate on his throat in the immediate aftermath of what was a career-best effort, but without knowing the precise details of what procedure it was, it is difficult to know what to make of that. Mind, the fact that his trainer is game to throw him straight into a race as competitive as this on his first start since is encouraging that the procedure isn't a red flag. Kevin Ryan has a fine record in the race and it wouldn't surprise to see Room Service run very well, but he isn't going to be my selection.

Mostabshir the one to back in Ayr Gold Cup

The one that I landed on is the John & Thady Gosden-trained Mostabshir. The four-year-old son of Dark Angel is a fascinating character to study. He made the perfect start to his career when making a winning debut at Kempton in November 2022. It was notable as the debut strike rate of progeny of Dark Angel isn't nearly as high as one would expect it to be for a top-class sire of sprinter/milers.

We have seen enough of his progeny over the last decade or so to know that the reason for this is that they are in the main quite slow learners. How this translates into a useful tool for assessing his progeny is that higher-than-average run-to-run improvement can be modelled in for them in the opening starts of their career. In a case like this where one of them is good enough to bolt up in a smart maiden on debut, it usually points to them very much being stakes class. However, it can also be a negative in the short term, as having enough ability to win on debut despite a lack of mental know how is one thing, but then being thrust into stakes company on their second start can sometimes be too much too soon for them.

There certainly seemed to be an element of this with Mostabshir in his second season, as he competed in stakes company in four of his next five starts, including such lofty company as the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, and it all seemed to be a bit too much for him at that stage of his career.

Gelded and given a break by his connections, he has been campaigned like a horse that his connections feel can win a big handicap off his mark. He has ran well in a sequence of valuable seven-furlong handicaps including when shaping well for a long way when fourth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, it was the drop to six furlongs for the first time that looked to really spark him to life in the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood last time.

Considering just how sharp a test of speed that race represents at the trip, Mostabshir acquitted himself very well to finish fourth. It is fair to say that he was on the right part of the track following the eventual winner, but there is every chance that first run at the trip will sharpen him and better arm him for this race. It wouldn't at all surprise if he can start to deliver on the abundant promise of his early starts now that he has dropped to sprinting. If he can win the Ayr Gold Cup, that would be a fair start.

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