Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Iron a solid selection in Welsh Grand National

• Welsh National the race of the day on Friday

• No slog but still a strong stamina test likely

• Jonjo & AJ O'Neill yard hold a good hand

No slog in Wales this year

After the overflowing feast of racing that is St Stephen's Day, we settle back into somewhat more manageable portions of top-class action on Friday with the Welsh Grand National (14:50) at Chepstow being the main event of the day for many.

We often associate the Welsh Grand National with attritional ground conditions. Indeed, last year's renewal produced one of the more extreme examples of this with only five of the 19 runners completing the course and the winner Nassalam winning by no less than 34 lengths.

Mind, this year's renewal is unlikely to pan out in that manner, as the weather has been much kinder which has led to the ground edging towards good-to-soft at the time of writing. This will take away at least of the extreme emphasis on stamina that would normally be required in this race.

Decent pace still likely to make it a true test

Mind, in terms of the likely pace in the race, there looks set to be good pace that should make the race a true test at the trip. Val Dancer is a regular front runner and looks the likeliest leader on paper. Fontaine Collonges made much of the running when winning a valuable handicap chase last time. No Nubs No Hoobs is a regular pace pusher and is proven over this trip.

Jubilee Express has helped push the pace in his last two starts in similar marathon tests to this. The Newest One helped pushed the push in his two starts prior to his latest outing in which he was content to race just handily. Atlanta Brave has helped push the early pace in his last two starts. Brave Your Own Story regularly races prominently and can make the running.

Monbeg still waiting for his big day

At the front end of the market is the Jonjo and AJ O'Neill-trained Monbeg Genius. The eight-year-old came to wider attention when running a huge race to finish a close third in what was a red-hot renewal of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2023, only being beaten by Corach Rambler and Fastorslow who went on to prove themselves to have been absolutely thrown in on the day.

After such a performance, he has been considered a winner-in-waiting of a big handicap chase, but he hasn't had much luck since then. He was a non-runner in the Scottish Grand National later that season and was very fancied for the Grand National earlier this year only to be ruled out by a setback.

Those that have been following him since that memorable day at Cheltenham haven't had much to shout about since, but he made a good return in a handicap chase at Haydock and is entitled to run well here, but he looks short enough in the betting to me.

Bridge looks to hold a cast Iron chance

The one that I like for the race is Jonjo and AJ O'Neill's other runner, Iron Bridge.

The eight-year-old has long shaped like the type to be very competitive in races of this type. He made the step up to marathon trips for the first time in this race last year and he ran a fine race to finish a distant second off a mark of 142. Some might conclude that he was well put in his place that day and there is no doubt that he was, but while he is a very dour stayer, I'm not at all sure that he wants the very testing surface that prevailed that day.

He ran solidly in both the Grand National Trial at Haydock on similarly testing ground and in the Scottish Grand National after that, so it was surprising to see him dropped to a mark of 136 after those runs.

The eight-year-old made an encouraging return to action in a valuable handicap chase at Carlisle, getting a bit outpaced before sticking on well to be beaten just four lengths in third behind Val Dancer. He was an intended runner in the Coral Gold Cup, but quickening ground saw him ruled out on the day.

This race is likely to have been his big target in the first half of the season and the fact that the ground isn't as testing as it usually is presents him with an excellent opportunity to run an even bigger race off a 6lb lower mark than he did in last year's renewal.

Now read Paul Nicholls on his Friday runners here.