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Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict on the Cesarewitch
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Recent Irish domiance looks set to continue
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Gavin Cromwell runner brings strong form to the table
Ryan Moore Superboost
Ryan Moore rides the progressive Shackleton in the 13:50 at Newmarket today, and the 2yo, who has form figures of 221, is fully expected to relish the step up in trip and land this Group 3 contest.
The Betfair Sportsbook have boosted Shackleton's price to finish in the top two from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00. To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back Shackleton to Finish Top 2 in 13:50 Newmarket
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The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (15:40) is one of the few remaining very big handicaps of the Flat season and it always presents a fearsome puzzle to try and solve.
The prize money for the race has taken some big blows in recent years, with this year's pot of £175,000 having reduced from a high of £500,000 as recently as 2018, but it remains a competitive if not quite so classy handicap to try and solve.
Going to the start in a relaxed manner is key
What makes the Cesarewitch so unique in the realm of staying handicaps is that realty, it is a race in two parts. I can't imagine it happens in too many if any other high-profile races around the world, but all the runners for the Cesarewitch are obliged to negotiate the full two-and-a-quarter miles distance to get to the start of the race. That might seem like it is just a quirky sidenote, but it is a detail that bears consideration when profiling horses that might be best suited to the test.
What the journey to the start will do is ruthlessly expose and punish any exuberance or recalcitrance. If a horse is anything but relaxed on the way to the start, they will expend a significant amount of wasted energy before the race even starts. If they then race sub optimally once the race begins, it is game over before it has really started.
So, in general terms, I always look for a stayer that has a relaxed way of going and avoid any that habitually over-race to any sort of notable extent.
Pace could benefit front third of the field
With that nuance noted, we can move onto the pace map to assess what shape this year's renewal of the race might take. Queenstown (25) spent the first half of this season making the running for Kyprios and made a fair attempt to help push the pace from a wide draw in the Ebor last time. Trooper Bisdee (5) is inconsistent at the gates, but can make the running when starting on terms including on his latest start.
Magellan Strait (8) has often made the running or raced prominently on the Flat, but he is a tricky sort that sometimes doesn't fancy which was the case on his latest start where he never travelled in rear throughout. Lady Percival (24) is an occasional front runner. Bashful Boy (13) can make the running over hurdles, but tends to be slow to start from the stalls and usually races in mid-div or even further back on the Flat.
In short, there are only bits and pieces of potential pace on paper and I wouldn't like to be banking on there being enough pace on to favour those that are held up in the back third of the field. My inclination will be to favour one that is likely to race in the first third of the field.
Irish dominance set to continue
In terms of the contenders, one general note to make is that Irish-trained horses have been faring particularly well in the race in recent times. They have won five of the last six renewals from an average of 7.8 runners each year. This year, the Irish will have what is very likely to be their biggest ever proportion of the runners in the race with them being responsible for 13 of the 25 declarations. Ominous.
Of all the Irish-trained contenders, the one I landed on is the Gavin Cromwell-trained Sixandahalf.
The four-year-old has a slightly quirky profile in that she is very much bred to be running under National Hunt rules and started her career in bumpers as recently as last March. While she won her second start in that sphere at the Punchestown Festival, she has really come alive since being switched to the Flat after that.
On what was just her fifth start on the Flat, she was sent over to the July Course at Newmarket to contest a valuable fillies' handicap over a mile-and-three-quarters. Ridden patiently, she came from off the pace to come clear with Cabrera and ultimately saw her off by 1½ lengths with 11 lengths back to the third. Considering how far they came clear, the handicapper was arguably quite lenient in just raising her by 7lb.
Irish Ces form looks strong
That win earned her a 6lb penalty for the very valuable Irish Cesarewitch and sneaked her in at the bottom of the weights. Drawn wide, she was bucked forward into a prominent position and settled quite well once getting cover. In a race where the pace held up well, she held every chance and stuck to her task really well to finish a 1 ¼-length third to The Euphrates.
That appeals as being strong form, as the winner was well-in following a close fourth in the Irish St Leger after the weights had been set and the second and fourth are both progressive types trained by Joseph O'Brien. The Irish handicapper has taken a strong view of the form and Sixandahalf is officially 3lb well-in here.
While Sixandahalf is drawn wide here, she showed in the Irish Cesarewitch that she is happy rolling forward and taking a prominent position which appeals as being likely to be favoured here. She is open to more improvement and I think she's going to run a very big race.
Back Sixandahalf to Win 15:40 Newmarket