Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Croke Park has big claims in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle

• Ireland's leading three trainers set to do battle

• Townend opts for Ile Atlantique

• Elliott has leading claims and Kev likes 9/110.00 Croke Park

The rain that has fallen in the last few weeks has been unbelievable. It has stopped down in my neck of the woods in Golden, County Tipperary, but alas it has continued in the UK and Sandown is one of a number of meetings that has fallen by the wayside.

With this in mind, I am going to focus my attentions on the green side of the Irish Sea, with Naas hosting it's biggest meeting of the season on Sunday. The Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle (14:00) is the main event and it is a contest that has the potential to shake up the novice hurdle divisions.

Just how open the novice hurdle divisions are at this stage of the season is quite unusual, At the time of writing, the ante-post markets for the three Grade 1 novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival are all at least 11/26.50 the field.

That is sure to change in the next month or so and this race could well have an impact.

Plenty of candidates to push the pace

In terms of how the race will be run, there looks plenty of candidates to push forward. An Tobar helped press the pace in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last time and while he steps up in trip here, he seems likely to be forward again.

Firefox has made all to win his last two starts in a bumper and a maiden hurdle. Chapeau De Soleil made all to win a maiden hurdle at a similar trip to this last time. Ile Atlantique and Readin Tommy Wrong helped push the pace when winning a maiden hurdle last time.

Croke Park made most to win a maiden hurdle and didn't seem ideally suited by a more restrained ride last time, so he could be one to change tactics and revert to a more positive ride.

Between all of them, it would be a surprise if the pace wasn't at least average and there shouldn't be an uncontested lead there for any of them.

Though, as has been mentioned in this space before, everyone is looking at the same formbook and sometimes when there are a lot of candidates to push the pace, more than a few of them decide not to get involved as they don't want to get hooked up in a pace battle, so the pace ends up being less contested than expected.

Atlantique the pick of Mullins' five for Townend

The race has what has become a familiar shape in Irish National Hunt racing, with Willie Mullins having five runners, Gordon Elliott having two and Henry De Bromhead being responsible for the other runner.

Paul Townend's choice of the Mullins five was always likely to sway the market and it was probably a surprise to some that he has gone for Ile Atlantique.

His bumper form ties in with a couple of these such as Firefox as well as some smart performers such as Feronily, Stellar Story and Caldwell Potter.

He made his first start over hurdles for Mullins a winning one in a maiden at Gowran in November, going with zest from the front and putting in a slick round of jumping, albeit getting a bit long at a few, particularly the penultimate flight. He was very strong up the run-in, though he would ideally settle a bit better over this longer trip.

Lot's to like about Chapeau's hurdle debut

Of the other Mullins contenders, Chapeau De Soleil is a horse that had a big reputation in bumpers last season, but didn't produce it on the track.

His connections felt he wasn't quite right for a reason they couldn't pinpoint, but have been much happier with him this season and he duly impressed on his hurdling debut in tough conditions at Clonmel last month.

It's hard to put a finger on the level he showed there as the conditions were extreme, but there was plenty to like about it.

The other Mullins contender likely to attract focus is Mystical Power. The son of the great Annie Power did a lot wrong on his hurdling debut in a novice contest at the Galway Festival, but managed to overcome it all to win well at the line.

There is clearly plenty of ability in there, but Mullins has spoken about him not being the easiest to train, so it'll be interesting to see how the market assesses his chance on his first start since then.

Elliott holds the key

For all the numerical power than Mullins has, Elliott has two strong contenders in Firefox and Croke Park.

Firefox is a three-time bumper winner that got the better of Ile Atlantique in one of them and made an impressive winning hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in December.

On that occasion he did get the run of the race from the front, but got the better of the highly-regarded Ballyburn with plenty to spare. His jumping was solid on that occasion and stepping up to this longer trip should pose no issues for him.

However, it is his stable mate Croke Park that I'm interested in at the prices.

The six-year-old doesn't have quite the reputation of some of his flashier rivals, but there is a lot to like about him. He is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and while he was widely considered to be workmanlike when winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Navan last time, I read it more positively than that.

He is a big, embryonic chaser and holding him up in behind the leaders didn't seem to play to his strengths. He jumped better as the race went on that day and while he shows a tendency to jump to his left, that shouldn't cause any issues for him in this.

Ideally, his connections will return him to a more forward ride here and make use of his stride.

I suspect he'll stay even further than this and I've already put him up for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle on the Cheltenham Only Bettor Podcast, so hopefully he will enhance his prospects for that race by running a big one here.

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