Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Back Revoir at 10/1 to reach another level in the Oaks

• Kevin Blake loves Epsom because there's nothing else like it

• Read his Big Race Verdicts on both Epsom Classics

• O'Brien runner appeals but Beckett could land Oaks again

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Of all the soft spots I have for various races run around the world, the Epsom Classics are two races that I have a particular grá for. That they represent the historic pinnacle for any middle-distance three-year-old in Europe is one thing, but the real attraction is Epsom itself and how much of a worldwide outlier it is as a stage for world-class horse racing.

It really is the most British of phenomena being a track created by members of the aristocracy hundreds of years ago that might well have indulged in too much brandy when looking out across Epsom Downs and thinking: "That's a fine place to race horses."

It is hard to imagine too many trainers in the modern era would choose to work a top-class horse, never mind race one, over such an undulating and unapologetically challenging course, but that is the true beauty of what the Epsom Classics represent. If you want to win them, you have to embrace the challenge and throw your prized horse into this cauldron of undulations and challenges to see if they truly are the best. There is nothing remotely like it and for that, I love it.

Desert Flower favourite in field of nine

The fillies will be the first to be tested this year in the Oaks (16:00) on Friday. The field has been distilled down to nine runners, but it is finely poised with the 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower facing into a raft of unexposed and highly-promising fillies.

First and foremost, let us try to figure out how the race is likely to play out. Minnie Hauk (2) has been prominent or helped push the pace in her two starts this season and went a long way to proving her stamina when winning over an extended 11f at Chester last time. On paper, she looks to be the likeliest leader.

Wemightakedlongway (8) dictated a steady pace when winning the Salsabil Stakes at Navan last time and, while she has her stamina to prove, she appeals as being likely to stay and seems likely to be at least prominent here.

Whirl (9) has both made much of the running and raced prominently when winning stakes races. She'll have to prove her stamina for this longer trip, so it remains to be seen how forward her team will want her to be.

Qilin Queen (7) changed tactics when dictating a steady pace on her way to winning the Childwickbury Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury last time. She steps up in trip here and her connections may not wish to be quite as forward with her.

Of those more likely to be happy to follow up the leaders, Go Go Boots (4) has been handy in her two starts this season and is likely to be so again. Desert Flower (1) has been a very straightforward filly in recent starts over a mile, making all to win the 1000 Guineas and seeming just as happy to follow the leaders at the backend of last season. She steps up by 50% in distance here and it is hard to imagine her connections setting her out to make the running. They seem more likely to follow up the leaders or even in mid-division.

Elwateen (5) is another that has been prominent in both her starts to date, but is stepping up 50% in distance and seems unlikely to be as prominent here. Giselle (3) can take a good grip in her races and her connections will likely go in pursuit of cover with her.

All told, how Ballydoyle choose to play the race will have a big bearing on the run of it. Giselle will be suited by plenty of pace in front of her, but Whirl's uncertain stamina might be better suited to an even or even steadier tempo.

This uncertainty over what is likely to happen is likely to cause some headaches for the remainder, but at least the fact that this is a smaller-than-usual field might make it that bit easier to make tactical adjustments in the early stages without risking getting caught wide with no cover.

That tactical adaptability won't apply as much to Desert Flower in stall one, as that starting position dictates that William Buick will have less time to make up his mind on a position before his opposition come across and lock him into whatever spot he has chosen.

Another factor here is the likely ground. The chalk-based soil that prevails at Epsom can create all sorts of headaches for the Clerk of the Course as it dries infamously quickly. Andrew Cooper knows this track best and has taken a safety-first approach, but looking at the various weather forecasts, it seems more likely that the ground will be on the easier side of good than on the firmer side of good and that is worth considering.

The market revolves around the Charlie Appleby-trained Desert Flower and the likelihood of her being able to be as effective over a mile-and-a-half as she has been over a mile. The daughter of Night Of Thunder has been

excellent thus far in winning all five of her starts including the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket last year and the 1000 Guineas on her return to action. She is characterised by being particularly straightforward, content to chase the leaders, race prominently or indeed dictate her own pace as she did in the 1000 Guineas.

She is a relaxed filly that spends plenty of time behind the bridle and, bar edging right when winning the Fillies' Mile, she hasn't shown anything that could be construed as an even slightly negative tendency. Surely she just wins, right?

I'm not so sure.

In terms of traditional means of assessing her prospects of being as effective over a mile-and-a-half, I'm not taking nearly as much encouragement from her pedigree as many seem to be. Her dam Promising Run was a very good filly that seemed to stay a mile-and-a-quarter, but she looked to be right on the edge of her stamina at that trip and was certainly better at shorter.

Perhaps of more concern is that her sire Night Of Thunder just doesn't get many horses that are Group class at a mile-and-a-half or further. In this part of the world he has produced Thunder Kiss and Rumbles Of Thunder to win Group races at this distance, but both were out of mares that stayed two miles.

There isn't much encouragement to be gleaned from striding analysis either. It should be said that the striding landscape in the context of the Oaks has shown more variance than it has in the Derby. As a race, it generally has less depth than the Derby and top-class fillies that are faster-than-ideal striders have been able to overcome that to win in the recent past. Taghrooda was the most notable recent example of a fast strider that just won anyway as she was in a different class to her opposition.

That said, going into the race as a faster-than-ideal strider is not a good starting point for a short-priced favourite and that is where Desert Flower sits. She has not yet shown the ability to drop her revs to a level that would be considered desirable for a potential Oaks winner.

The average mid-race minimum stride frequency for a winner of the Oaks in recent years is 2.14sps (strides-per-second). The lowest Desert Flower has ever got is 2.23sps in the May Hill Stakes last year, but her average mid-race low in her other four starts was 2.27sps. As well as that, despite her having the experience of five runs, this uniquely challenging might well be as big a shock to her as to any of the runners given that she has only raced on straight tracks in her career to date. All of this is more than enough evidence for me to go in pursuit of an alternative selection to her.

Back Revoir to land Beckett another Oaks win

Firstly, I wouldn't put anyone off the Joseph O'Brien-trained Wemightakedlongway. She got the run of the race in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan last time, but was idling in the closing stages and was very much the best horse on the day. She looks to have excellent prospects of staying this longer trip and any rain that falls will be of benefit to her. I feel she is overpriced.

However, the main selection is the Ralph Beckett-trained Revoir. The daughter of Study Of Man is from a lovely family and made a promising winning debut in a maiden over an extended mile on heavy ground at Nottingham in October 2024. That start raised hopes that she could be a high-class middle-distance prospect as a three-year-old and she duly confirmed that with an even more promising seasonal return when a short-head second to Qilin Queen in the Childwickbury Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes.

She was made to wait in what was a steadily-run race and finished well all the way to the line without having an overly hard race. She is a good-moving filly, but handled testing ground well enough on her debut that the amount of rain that falls shouldn't bother her either way. Her stride mechanics are also typical of the average Oaks winner. It goes without saying that she will need to find substantial improvement to lift her form to the level of a typical Oaks winner, but she very much has the scope to do so.

Indeed, there is an eerie similarity between Revoir and Look Here who won the Oaks for Beckett in the same silks in 2008. She came into the race rated just 94 having made a winning debut in a backend two-year-old maiden and had one other run prior to the Oaks, finishing a never-nearer second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. She duly took her form to another level in the Oaks and the hope is that Revoir, whose granddam is a half-sister to Look Here, will be able to do something similar 17 years on.

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