Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Gemini can star in Futurity Trophy

• Group 1 Futurity Trophy gets Kev's 1-2-3 verdict

• Ancient Wisdom a worthy fav with conditions set to suit

• More improvement expected up in trip for Gemini

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The Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes (14:10) at Doncaster this Saturday is the final Group 1 of the season for two-year-olds. It has produced an array of stars over the years including Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia, Kameko, Luxembourg and Augueste Rodin that all went on to win Group 1 races as three-year-olds.

As can often be the case in the race, testing ground seems sure to prevail on Saturday, but heavy-ground renewals of it have proven to be just as likely to produce future stars as those run on less testing ground. So, how does this year's renewal shape up?

The race has attracted eight declarations, but four of them stand out from the rest in terms of form in the book and it is worth taking a closer look at them.

Ancient will relish conditions but will he have the Wisdom to prevail?

The market is currently headed up by the Charlie Appleby-trained Ancient Wisdom after he was supplemented into the race earlier this week.

The son of Dubawi has only been beaten once in four starts with that defeat coming in what has worked out to be an electric renewal of the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot in July. The first six home having won stakes races since and two of them, Rosallion and Sunway, have won Group 1 races.

Ancient Wisdom did his part for that form by running out the impressive winner of the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago on what was his return from an 11-week break and first try at a mile. Ring rust didn't look to be any sort of issue for him, as having followed the leader and making steady headway to challenge, he was soon in charge and could afford to show some minor greenness in and out of the dip, edging right then left close home.

The ground wasn't as soft as many feared it would be that day, with Timeform describing it as good-to-soft, but there is a strong suspicion that Ancient Wisdom will relish the much more testing ground that is likely to prevail at Doncaster.

The reason behind that thinking is that Ancient Wisdom displays one of more pronounced knee actions that one will come across in top-class Flat racing, so that would certainly suggest that conditions shouldn't pose a problem to him.

The main question mark that will be attached to Ancient Wisdom on Saturday is whether this will come sooner than ideal for him. Charlie Appleby initially seemed content that his victory in the Autumn Stakes represented a good note to finish his campaign on, but the tune has changed and he has been supplemented for this.

One wonders whether Godolphin's tough run in Group 1 races (no such victory in the UK since Modern Games in the Lockinge Stakes in May) has influenced their decision to rush him back to the track. Regardless of the motivations, Ancient Wisdom did have a mid-season freshen up prior to the Autumn Stakes that will encourage many that he'll be able to run to his best on Saturday.

Relative inexperience may prevent Diego from scoring

The current second favourite is the Aidan O'Brien-trained Diego Velazquez.

The son of Frankel was always going to be the subject of a lot of attention being a 2.4m gns yearling purchase that is closely related to Point Lonsdale and Broome.

However, he was the subject of bullish reports long before he made his debut. Indeed, he was the ante-post favourite for the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot before being ruled out of his intended debut at the Curragh in early-June.

His debut belatedly came in a seven-furlong maiden on the Phoenix Stakes card at the Curragh. He didn't disappoint, not travelling at all smoothly, but going through the gears nicely to win by just shy of five lengths. The runner-up has since won a maiden and is now rated 92.

The overall time was unspectacular, but the visual impression and distinct promise of better to come in a test that more thoroughly examined stamina was clear to see.

He was seen next in the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes and his starting price of 8/151.53 summed up the expectations, but it proved to be hard work with him having just ½-length to spare over his stable mate Capulet. Again, he didn't travel particularly well and needed visible encouragement from halfway and Ryan Moore's maximum drive in the closing stages.

In terms of how that form has worked out, the runner-up acquitted himself just okay when subsequently finishing third in the Royal Lodge.

One can take encouragement from the fact that the third Atlantic Coast won the Killavullan Stakes on his next start and the fourth Deepone won the Beresford Stakes next time, but the latter benefited from a big change of tactics from how he was ridden at Leopardstown.

In terms of how Diego Velazque is likely to handle the ground, he displays a clean, fluent action without much knee bend to report which would raise concerns about a testing surface for him when viewed in isolation. Mind, it is worth pointing out that his very close relation Point Lonsdale also has an action that would raise similar concerns, but he is fully effective on heavy ground

For all that he is clearly a fine prospect, I would worry about Diego Velazquez's readiness for a test like this at this stage of his career. If he wins, it will vouch very well for his long-term prospects, but he wouldn't be for me at the current prices.

Can we throw God's chances out of the Window?

The least exposed runner in the field is the John & Thady Gosden-trained God's Window who comes here after making a winning debut in a course and distance maiden in September.

The Gosdens wouldn't be known for having their newcomers fired up for their debuts, with God's Window being one of only four winning juvenile newcomers they have sent out this year.

It was a success achieved with a degree of style, with the son of Dubawi swooping widest of all to win well under hand-and-heels riding. Mind, the time nor the form pinpointed it as being a particularly strong piece of evidence that he is a Group 1 performer in the making.

Jumping straight into Group 1 company after one start in maiden company isn't a very John Gosden thing to do, either. Indeed, I can only find two examples of him doing this with a two-year-old in the last 20 years.

Interestingly, both involved this race, but neither went well. Red Spider was sent off 8/19.00 in this race in 2008, ran moderately and never raced again. Similarly, Verboten went off 8/19.00 in this race in 2019, ran moderately and didn't win again until scoring in a moderate handicap on the dirt at Jebel Ali three years later.

The evidence suggests that this is likely to be a bit too much too soon for God's Window.

Will they all be Dancing to Gemini's tune?

That brings us to the Roger Teal-trained Dancing Gemini. The son of Camelot was out quite early for one by that sire when he debuted in a maiden at Salisbury in late-June.

Teal has always spoke about how highly he rates the colt and that is supported by the fact he went off at 7/24.50 on debut, the shortest-priced two-year-old debutant that Teal has ever saddled. While he was undone by inexperience in finishing a never-nearer second to Metallo, the promise was very clear.

Pitched straight into what proved to be an electric renewal of the aforementioned Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot, he was beaten 15 lengths, though still finishing just in front of the subsequent Group 1 winner Sunway.

He got back on track when winning a maiden at Newbury three weeks later, with him overcoming lingering signs of greenness to power home for an authoritative success. What made that performance so notable was the strength of the time compared to other contests on the card and it stamped him as one that might well justify his trainer's high opinion of him.

From there, he went to the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster and that was where he took his form to another level. While he still needed some early encouragement, he travelled better on the whole and powered into contention entering the closing stages.

He put the race to bed very readily and was notably powerful in the final furlong, eventually winning by 4¼ lengths. Again, the evidence of the clock put a significant shine on the performance, which lessens the impact of the runner-up letting the form down on his next start.

All of what Dancing Gemini has done so far should be contextualised by his pedigree. Being by Camelot out of an Australia mare, he shouldn't be doing as much as he has over seven furlongs at this stage of his career. His pedigree and the way he shapes suggests this longer trip can only bring about more improvement.

This will be the softest ground he has encountered, but he would appeal as being better equipped than most of these to handle it.

O'Brien outsider the likely pace angle

From a pace perspective, it is always dangerous to make assumptions when it comes to assessing what Ballydoyle might have in mind, but it looks more likely than not that Battle Cry will be the one to make the running. His stable mate Diego Velazquez is drawn beside him, so they couldn't have asked for a better setup in that regard, with Diego likely to follow in close pursuit.

The other one that could potentially play a role in the early pace is Deira Mile who has pressed the leaders in his last two starts, but those runs came in maiden and novice company, so he would be far from sure to be as forward in this much stronger race.

Ancient Wisdom should be happy to sit prominently close to the leader and Dancing Gemini is likely to be ridden a shade more conservatively, perhaps in the third wave of runners. God's Window seems likely to be dropped in and ridden to come home as well as he can.

Big Race Verdict

All told, one can hopefully get a good feel for which way I'm leaning from the above essay, but just so there isn't any doubt, here is my best estimate of what the finish might look like.

1: Dancing Gemini
2: Ancient Wisdom
3: Diego Velazquez

Best of luck!

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