Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: O'Brien to start off the season with Persian War win

• Soft conditions in store for Grade 2 feature on Friday

• Cobden booked for McConnell but no Nicholls runner

• Alan Dudman's selection for the Persian War at 9/43.25

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Seven declared for Chepstow feature

In a well ordered world, October heralds the start of the jumps' season proper and the Persian War Novices' Hurdle has been the launchpad for some fine horses in recent seasons - although Philip Hobbs who first scooped this race in the mid-1980s with Badsworth Boy and in recent times Fingal Bay hasn't got a runner.

Paul Nicholls was dealt a minor blow with the news that Teeshan has been ruled out for a few weeks with a minor setback, and you can read the trainer's preview for his runners on the card here - although Teeshan would have been a big player.

The jumps are well and truly back, and so is the winter weather and it looks as though the meeting on Friday will start on genuine soft ground. It's Chepstow in October - what else would you expect?

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McConnell's Intense Approach well backed

Seven are declared for the decent pot of 28k and John McConnell's Intense Approach has been fairly strong at the summit of the betting from 11/43.75 and bigger into 9/43.25.

He's flourishing at the moment with two wide margin wins at Kelso and at Downpatrick - winning by 7L and 15L and he's race-fit too having collected those win in August and September. And here presents the conundrum of these big early season races with a hard-fit rival against a horse that will have bigger targets down the line.

Intense Approach can improve on the jumping front for sure and he was a bit scruffy with his technique on numerous occasions last time at Kelso, and he won't be able to do that against a higher calibre of rival. There should be pace on here and that will help, but my biggest fear is whether he will appreciate the soft conditions.

His two wins coming into Friday have been on officially good ground.

Harry Cobden has been booked which is a feather in the cap for the yard.

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Home challenge relies on the Bowens

Peter and Michael Bowen with James present the Welsh home troika with Flying Fortune and she arrives in top nick with three wins (two handicaps) over the summer months, and again fitness isn't a problem as she was a winner as recently as two weeks ago.

She's very likeable and improving and seemed to enjoy a return to softer conditions last time with a fluent success at Worcester from a mark of 115. Prior to that she'd been running well on good ground, so on that front she's adaptable, but a rating of 115 wouldn't scream a Grade 2 winner in the space of a few weeks.

In-running players will be alerted to her too as she travels so well - and went through both races at Worcester with a fair bit of style. She's off a personal best last time and needs another one.

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O'Brien bidding for third Persian War

Ryan's Rocket for Fergal O'Brien might just have a bit more potential and star quality and he runs in the Noel Fehily Racing Club colours.

Purchased for 110k in 2022 he's been building up a nice little CV and I like a piece of form from last winter when he was beaten behind Ben Pauling's Fiercely Proud - a rival with form in Grade 2 races.

He used that experience well to scatter an inferior field back in Taunton last March with an easy 3L success, and crucially for Friday, he scored in soft there and showed a nice turn of foot and then bettered that in the spring at Kempton.

I don't doubt he'll stay either on the Taunton evidence and trainer Fergal O'Brien is usually one who starts the season off hard and quickly to pick up the prizes before those mean Irish-based trainers spoil the fun.

O'Brien has won this race twice in the past seven seasons, and if we are backing potential, he has the makings of reaching a higher level than both McConnell's and Bowen's horses. He's rated 122, and my question is can he improve on that? It's an emphatic yes, and in truth, there will be tougher Grade 2 races in November in December.

Strike while the iron is hot Fergal.

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Skelton youngster a plus on the trip

Out of all the stable riches for Dan Skelton, his runner here is Juventus De Brion, a young horse still learning his trade and Skelton's record coming into Friday is 4-35 at 11%, but I wouldn't read too much into that.

Juventus De Brion's two starts have been at good tracks and he very much suited the step up in trip to 2m4f at Ascot for his last run in February.

As a project down the line, he certainly looks more of a 2m4f+ horse, but he has been weak in the market this week and at 11/26.50, I cannot quite recommend him as a bet as he has more question marks purely down to inexperience rather than anything else.

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Conclusion on Ryan's Rocket

I've mentioned there is pace on here as Handlethekettle can lead and so can Vicenzo, but the latter looked a touch laboured at Exeter in April (on good ground) despite a 4L success - and he did make the running there. He does act on soft but my gut feeling is he won't have the class for this for all I am a fan of his trainer Sam Thomas.

In conclusion, I am hoping the ground is not bottomless and it will be fresh, but Ryan's Rocket was deeply impressive at Kempton after Taunton with a rout of a win by 5L, and some interesting quotes came from JJ Burke afterwards in relation to the ground.

"He is a nice horse and he's done that well. He's been kept going through the depths of winter waiting for the better ground and has done well physically, but he'll benefit for a break," said Burke.

I like the break part, and rewinding to Kempton, the ground had changed to some good to soft in places after that race, so if it dries out a bit on Friday (and the forecast suggests so), it's one less thing to worry about.

But as a bet, I think he's got plenty of potential to rate higher.

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Now read the latest preview for the jumps' season from Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls here!

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