Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Thursday including 28/1 Newmarket fancy

Newmarket, 13:50 - Back Mubasimah E/W @ 10/111.00

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Mubasimah (Ire)

• J: Oisin Murphy
• T: Andrew Balding
• F: 12-605076

• SBK 8/1
• EXC 8.4

Three-year-old filly Mubasimah could improve on her latest few outings for Andrew Balding in this competitive 6f handicap. She has dropped to a mark of 93, 9lb lower than her highest rating of 102, and has plenty of course experience in her favour as she bids to return to form.

Still lightly-raced in only her ninth start and relatively unexposed in handicaps, there could be more to come from the daughter of Frankel who won her maiden at this track twelve months ago before being narrowly denied by Calendar Girl in the Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes. 

Although things haven't worked out favourably for her as of yet this year, she could be worth keeping the faith in under Oisin Murphy and is one to note with winning experience at the track.

Perth, 14:14 - Back The Last Cloud @ 4/15.00

2

The Last Cloud (Ire)

• J: Brian Hughes
• T: Patrick Neville
• F: 111433P-6

• SBK 5/2
• EXC 3

Equipped with a first-time tongue-tie on chasing debut, The Last Cloud could make a winning return at a track where he is proven on multiple occasions over hurdles. He recorded a three-timer here last year from May to September, before finishing third in a Grade One won by Idaho Sun at Aintree, following on from a fourth-placed effort in a Cheltenham Grade Two Novice Hurdle behind Fortune De Mer.

Well-backed when sent off as favourite for the River Don at Doncaster, he placed third to Thedeviluno in that Grade Two and, although he hasn't threatened in two starts since, this different challenge could suit.

By Cloudings, a sire who produced many great chasers over the years, most notably the brilliant Many Clouds, and out of Lady Lucarno, a half-sister to two chase winners in Senior Chief and Lermoos Legend, there's enough evidence in the pedigree to suggest the switch to larger obstacles could suit and he could make a successful start in this sphere for Patrick Neville, who struck with The Real Whacker at Perth on Wednesday.

Newmarket, 14:25 - Back Minzelle E/W @ SP

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Minzelle (Ire)

• J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
• T: K. R. Burke
• F: 316

• SBK 7/2
• EXC 5.1

Handicap debutante Minzelle could be well-treated from a mark of 82 for Karl Burke, who has a 22 percent strike-rate with juveniles in handicaps this year.

The daughter of Minzaal got off the mark at the second time of asking in a Catterick maiden during the summer, beating Warby by three-and-a-half-lengths in convincing fashion, before stepping into Listed company at Deauville. She couldn't make an impression at Stakes level but is entitled to keep on improving, far from the finished article having been seen on only three occasions during her career so far.

Having already proven her winning capabilities and dropping in class here, Minzelle could put in a bold bid under Pierre-Louis Jamin, who has been among the winners lately, and warrants consideration.

Notable winners from Katie in recent weeks

• Tribal Chief @ 10/3
• Dragon Of Malta @ 13/2
• Good Morning Alex @ 14/1
• Copper Knight @ 13/2
• Greydreambeliever @ 5/2
• Tyger Bay @ 14/1
• Who's Glen @ 15/2
• Brian @ 11/2
• Zgharta @ 5/1
• Sunriseontheboyne @ 11/1
• Land Of The Giants @ 9/2
• Giant @ 20/1
• Abundant @ 6/1

Bet of the day: Newmarket, 15:00 - Back Cilician E/W @ 28/129.00

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Cilician (Ire)

• J: Tom Marquand
• T: Brian Meehan
• F: 2022842

• SBK 28/1
• EXC 30

In the Group Three event on the card at Newmarket, outsider of the field Cilician is far from a forlorn hope for Brian Meehan and Tom Marquand, although he comes into the race more exposed than his rivals. He's a seven-race maiden but has been gaining plenty of valuable experience which should hold him in good stead, and has had excuses on many occasions.

The son of Blackbeard, who fetched £90,000 as a yearling, has lined up in many tough novice events and also featured in the Coventry Stakes won by Great Barrier Reef at Royal Ascot. He has finished second on four occasions, narrowly beaten by Fuel The Jet when ahead of Rafe's Da Man, who franked the form at Goodwood, in a Newbury contest in July, and only just denied in handicap company by Norham when last seen at Sandown.

Further improvement is required, but Cilician has faced many challenges already in his career and appears to still be a work in progress, learning on the job. There could be more to come from him and, whilst he has plenty to prove, he may be able to outrun his odds as he returns to Stakes level.

Pontefract, 15:52 - Back Circus Of Rome E/W @ 12/113.00

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Circus Of Rome

• J: Finley Marsh
• T: Richard Hughes
• F: 1146-5000

• SBK 10/1
• EXC 9.4

Dropping in class and in trip, Circus Of Rome is an interesting contender for Richard Hughes in this mile-and-a-quarter handicap. He has been seen in tough, competitive races during the summer when failing to make a significant impact, but was far from disgraced behind Align The Stars in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and appears on a 4lb lower mark here.

Whilst most of his recent form is over further, he is a winner over an extended 1m1f from earlier in his career and could use his staying ability to good effect late on in a race of this nature. It may be worth keeping the faith in the gelded son of Circus Maximus, who is yet to be fully exposed. He could be capable of a resurgence in the hands of Finley Marsh, and makes each-way appeal at the prices.

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