Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Sunday including 40/1 pick

• Katie Midwinter has selections at Newcastle, Killarney and Longchamp

• United Approach is well treated at the weights in Newcastle handicap

• Outsider is no forlorn hope in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains

• Moonovercloon can land a big prize in Killarney National

14:15 Longchamp - Back Tribal Chief @ BSP

Likeable gelding Tribal Chief has been running exceptionally well over the past year following a gelding operation and an introduction to handicapping, rising from an opening mark of 61 to his current rating of 91.

Capable of showing further progression on the back of a promising second to Bullet Point at Newmarket, in which he lost many lengths at the start but finished extremely well, the David Menuisier-trained runner is one to keep on side in current form.

Seeking a fifth career success on his first start outside of Britain, the French-bred son of Sioux Nation can be competitive under Kieran Shoemark.

15:25 Longchamp - Back Serengeti E/W @ 40/141.00

17 (1)

Serengeti (Fr)

• J:
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

With five places available in the French Classic, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Aidan O'Brien-trained outsider Serengeti could be capable of outrunning his huge odds of 40/141.00.

This is only his fifth start, having been seen in maiden company on three occasions as a juvenile before returning in a 7f handicap at Naas in March, failing to make an impression despite being sent off as 4/15.00 joint-favourite. Entitled to improve for his first run of the season, the son of Wootton Bassett could shape better than his price suggests, considering some of the form he had shown during his debut campaign.

On debut, Serengeti was beaten only two-lengths by subsequent Group One-placed Expanded, when hampered and short of room at a crucial stage in the race. He finished strongly, however, and was the one to take from the race, before being sent off as the 15/82.88 favourite when third to stablemate Twain, who was fancied for the first British Classic of the season before being forced to miss that assignment. 

Serengeti beat subsequent winner First Wave, who was a previous close second to Expanded, to land his maiden at Dundalk, and although he must show plenty of further improvement if he is to have a say in this competitive contest, some progression is possible and he is unexposed.

Available at huge odds, Serengeti could put in a good showing on his first try at Stakes level.

16:05 Longchamp - Back Bedtime Story E/W @ 14/115.00

6 (9)

Bedtime Story (Ire)

• J:
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

Whilst Bedtime Story will likely be one to follow throughout the season as she gains more experience, the Frankel filly warrants each-way consideration at a price of 14/115.00 on her seasonal return.

A four-time winner as a juvenile, Bedtime Story beat subsequent Listed winner and Group Three-placed Giselle to land her maiden at Leopardstown, before emphatically landing the Chesham Stakes by nine-and-a-half-lengths at Royal Ascot.

Following that brilliant success, Bedtime Story was sent off at odds of 1/161.06 in both of her next two starts at Group Two and Group Three level, respectively, in which she was able to justify short odds by twice beating stablemate Exactly, a subsequent Group Three winner who also placed in a Group One. Sent off at odds of 4/51.80 in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, Bedtime Story disappointed but was reported to be lame post-race.

Stepping up to a mile over this course-and-distance last October, she was keen from a wide draw and struggled to settle early on, positioned at the rear of the field entering the straight. Whilst she was able to make some progress to eventually finish fifth, the young filly couldn't make an impact from a tough position and having raced enthusiastically early on, and it was a run worth forgiving.

Bedtime Story clearly possesses a huge amount of ability and although freshness is a concern on her reappearance should she fail to settle early on, she is available at generous odds and should be in contention should she relax. Equipped with a hood which should help, the likeable grey represents value at the prices and holds strong claims if at her best.

16:50 Killarney - Back Moonovercloon E/W @ 12/113.00

5

Moonovercloon (Ire)

• J: James Smith
• T: Matthew J. Smith, Ireland
• F:

Eight-year-old gelding Moonovercloon can be competitive from a mark of 133 in this 3m2f contest, partnered by 5lb claimer James Smith for trainer Matthew Smith.

The likeable type was a late faller when sent off at odds of 100/1101.00 in the Irish Grand National, but had previously finished a close second to Battleoverdoyen in a competitive Galway chase, when rated 4lb lower, having been backed into a price of 7/24.50 in his race prior, when a faller at the first in a Listed Kilbeggan Midlands National.

With form behind the likes of Chapeau De Soleil over hurdles, and behind Mayor's Walk over fences over the past year, Moonovercloon possesses enough ability to pose a threat in a race of this nature, as shown in the past, and makes each-way appeal at odds of 12/113.00.

17:45 Newcastle - Back United Approach E/W @ 9/110.00

7 (7)

United Approach (Ire)

• J: Clifford Lee
• T: James Tate
• F:

James Tate-trained United Approach appears well treated from a mark of 87 considering he has shown form with the likes of now 107-rated Make Me King, 109-rated Grey's Monument, as well as 90-rated Lord Bertie and 87-rated Waleefy.

The five-year-old, who makes his tenth start here, should be capable of showing further improvement having had the benefit of a recent run at Kempton, in which he finished third following a 166-day break.

The son of Fastnet Rock has run well over this course-and-distance in the past at a higher level, and there's enough evidence to suggest he should go close in the hands of Clifford Lee, who has an all-time strike-rate of 27 percent for the yard.

17:45 Newcastle - Back Local Hero E/W @ 15/28.50

3 (3)

Local Hero (Ire)

• J: Tom Marquand
• T: Richard Hannon
• F:

In the same race as United Approach, Local Hero warrants each-way consideration for Richard Hannon from a workable mark of 92 which is only 3lb higher than his previous success.

Since his latest win at Kempton, a track he favours, the Phoenix Of Spain colt has been able to be competitive from a higher mark, most notably when narrowly beaten by Mount Athos from a rating of 91 on his penultimate start. He wasn't in a great position to strike in his latest outing at Newmarket, but a return to the all-weather should be in his favour and he could prove worth keeping the faith in.

At odds of 15/28.50, he holds each-way claims under Tom Marquand.

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