Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets for Wednesday include 14/1 Chepstow tip

• Katie Midwinter has four selections on Wednesday

• Jim Goldie-trained filly can build on recent eye-catching effort

• Handicap debutante is of interest for in-form yard

12:35 Musselburgh - Back Thunderstorm Katie @ 6/17.00

Making her second appearance for Jim Goldie, Thunderstorm Katie appears potentially well handicapped from a mark of 48 with 3lb claimer Amie Waugh aboard.

The daughter of Muhaarar had shown little in novice company before switching yards from Brain Toomey's, but caught the eye on her first run following a wind operation on debut for her new stable when fourth at odds of 28/129.00 at Newcastle.

Coming from the rear that day having been slowly away, she stayed on well without ever appearing to reach full speed, and shaped as though she had more to give. She remains on the same mark here, and often the second run after wind surgery is the time to catch a horse on a going day.

It's taken some time for the penny to drop with her, but she did show promise in a maiden last year, when fourth at 200/1201.00 in heavy ground at Ffos Las. The ease in the ground should suit here and this bottom weight could be ready to cause a storm in this contest.

The three-year-old filly, who fetched 12,000gns as a yearling, is out of dual Listed winner Firenze, who placed in Group Two company over 5f and has produced useful sprinters in the likes of Mazzini, Harry's Bar and Justcallmepete. There is enough class in her pedigree to suggest she is better than her current rating reflects, and there should be further progression to come from her.

14:25 Dundalk - Back Vanilla Baby E/W @ 7/18.00

Handicap debutante Vanilla Baby makes appeal as she seeks a first career success on her fourth start. The daughter of Twilight Son, a stallion who has a good record with his winners-to-runners ratio on an all-weather surface, can make her mark down the handicap route, capable of showing plenty of improvement on her previous appearances. She's well-bred and, on pedigree, should possess ability beyond what she has been able to display so far.

Her dam Elysian is out of Group One winning Danehill mare Echelon, a sister to black-type achieving Provenance, and half-sister to dual Group One winner Integral, both of whom have produced the likes of Fundamental, New Kingdom and Cruyff Turn between them. Elysian's maternal grand-dam Exclusive was a Group One winner who produced Group Two winner Chic, who was narrowly touched off at Group One level, as well as useful performer De Rigueur.

There is plenty of class in the pedigree to suggest Vanilla Baby's opening mark of 60 could prove lenient, despite her failing to make an impression in three maiden starts. On debut she was well beaten by subsequent Listed winner Rebel Diamond, now rated 101, and she has featured in maidens which have included both Passing Phase and Snapdragon, both of whom have shown ability against classy horses.

These are calmer waters in which she could finally show some ability from a low mark. Joseph O'Brien has a 38 percent strike-rate with his juveniles in handicaps this year, with all of his two-year-old runners finishing among the first four at the track during 2024, with the yard recording a 24 percent win-rate here.

These statistics bode well for her chances of making the frame at the least, for an in-form yard with Declan McDonogh, who partnered her on debut, returning in the saddle.

14:43 Nottingham - Back Charming Whisper E/W @ 10/111.00

Philip McBride-trained Charming Whisper has been running consistently well this season but hasn't been able to return to the winners' enclosure since successful at Yarmouth in June. He hasn't been beaten far in his races since, and has been unfortunate on occasions since with things not going his way.

Now on a mark of 80, he's capable of winning from his current rating despite being 6lb above his last winning mark and without a claimer aboard. Last season he faced soft ground twice, once when beaten by subsequent Listed winners Fair Angellica, now 115-rated, and Witness Stand, who finished second, ahead of James's Delight, now rated 110 who has also claimed Listed success since.

He coped with conditions well that day at Newmarket, capable of doing so again, and the fact he has won on good to soft ground at a higher level, although in novice company, bodes well for his chances of returning to winning ways here. Adam Farragher has a respectable 13 percent strike-rate aboard the yard's runner this term, and the trainer is currently performing at a 33 percent win-rate, too.

There is plenty in Charming Whisper's favour here, and he could prove worth siding with at odds of 10/111.00.

14:55 Chepstow - Back Shaving E/W @ 14/115.00

Six-year-old mare Shaving makes each-way appeal at Chepstow as she bids to break her maiden tag.

Formerly trained by Willie Mullins, she showed little form for Closutton in bumpers but was beaten by subsequent Grade Two winning stablemate, Fleur Au Fusil, on debut then finished seventh in a Wexford bumper which featured Sansrisk and Royal Hollow, who finished in first and second, respectively, in a Grade Three Novice Hurdle at Down Royal on Friday.

The daughter of Spanish Moon was given wind surgery before switching to Jamie Snowden where she has shown some improvement over hurdles, including when finishing fourth at 100/1101.00 at Worcester on her penultimate start.

Now handicapping, there could be more to come from her from a mark of 98 considering some of the horses she beat at Worcester are rated higher than her current rating. The yard has been in good form of late, performing at a 23 percent strike-rate in recent weeks, with many of their beaten horses finishing among the places.

At generous odds once again, Shaving could prove worth siding with each-way under Gavin Sheehan, as she could have plenty of further improvement to come.

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