Cheltenham Festival Tips: Katie Midwinter's five best bets from Evens to 10/1

• Katie Midwinter picks out her five best bets at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

• Exceptional novice hurdler is yet to show the best of his ability over fences

• Promising filly is standout contender at the weights in the juvenile handicap

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Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase - Back Nurburgring @ 13/27.50

Joseph O'Brien-trained Nurburgring holds leading claims from a rating of 143 in this contest, having shaped with plenty of promise in defeat in three starts over fences to date.

The five-year-old, who once beat Group Three-placed Queenstown by four-and-a-quarter-lengths in a Navan maiden on the Flat, was a talented juvenile hurdler, recording impressive pieces of form, beating Thats Jet to win his maiden hurdle at Killarney, before finishing ahead of Wodhooh at Listowel.

The son of Zoffany then beat promising filly Kala Conti to land a Fairyhouse Grade Three, before being beaten three-quarters-of-a-length by the same rival when upped into Grade Two company at Leopardstown. Sent off at odds of 6/17.00, he made late gains from the rear when contesting the Triumph Hurdle at last year's Festival, far from disgraced despite being beaten fourteen-lengths by the talented winner, Majborough.

A third in Grade One company at Punchestown cemented his place towards the top of the juvenile crop, and there appeared to be plenty of further progression to come from the improving youngster.

During the summer, Nurburgring was a hugely impressive winner of the competitive Galway Hurdle, beating Ndaawi from a rating of 139, winning with plenty in hand. Considering he was able to win a race of that nature in impressive style, a 4lb higher mark here appears lenient, even though he is yet to replicate that level of performance over fences. He has taken well to the larger obstacles, appearing to be learning with experience, and is yet to show his full capabilities as a chaser. 

The fact he has been kept fresh since Christmas is a positive considering he was kept up to his work during the summer, and he has run well following a break in the past. He has placed in a Grade Two over fences, when behind Touch Me Not and Farren Glory at Punchestown, and usually stays on well in his races suggesting this step up to the intermediate distance will bring further improvement from the gelding.

Nurburgring should prove much better than his current mark in time, particularly considering the form he has already shown, the class he brings from his Flat background, and the fact he's still improving as a chaser. Capable of showing plenty of further progression, he appears well treated at the weights and is the one to beat in this field.

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Brown Advisory Novices' Chase - Ballyburn @ 1/12.00

Ballyburn was one of the most impressive winners at last year's Festival, recording success in the intermediate distance novices' hurdle by thirteen-lengths, leading home a 1-2-3-4 for his stable. The talented Willie Mullins-trained gelding had only one blemish on his record at that time, when beaten two-and-a-half-lengths by Firefox over two miles in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle.

A step up in trip was required to see him to best effect, and he was unbeaten from then on over timber, defeating his rivals by a combined distance of over forty-eight-lengths in four runs which included three Grade One prizes. He beat the likes of Slade Steel, Absurde, Handstands, and Jetara, to name a few, during those races, having beaten Dancing City comfortably in a bumper the previous season.

Sent chasing this season, he made a comfortable winning start at Punchestown, beating stablemate Ocastle Des Mottes in facile fashion by thirteen-lengths, not necessarily enhancing his reputation but certainly shaping with promise as a chaser.

In his subsequent start, Ballyburn was thrown in the deep end against a special talent in Sir Gino, lining up in the Grade Two Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton over the Christmas period. No match for his main rival that day, Ballyburn lost little in defeat over the two mile trip which is shorter than required for the gelding at this stage in his career, up against perhaps the most exciting novice chaser in training.

Far from disgraced, Ballyburn pulled clear of Rubaud, who followed up with a Grade Two success in the Pendil Novices' Chase having gone within a length of L'Eau du Sud in the Kingmaker at Warwick, before he fell at the last. 

Paul Townend didn't appear to give Ballyburn a harder time than necessary either once it was clear the race had been lost, and the seven-year-old was able to return to winning ways when an impressive five-length Grade One winner over Croke Park at the Dublin Racing Festival.

This is only his fourth start over the larger obstacles and he's entitled to show further improvement. 

The point winner, who has plenty of stamina in his pedigree being a full brother to three mile winning chasers Noble Endeavor and Minella Daddy, out of Old Moon, a half-sister to three mile winning Warden Hill, attempts this trip for the first time under Rules. On form, profile and pedigree, it should bring out further improvement in the 160-rated chaser, and the best could be yet to come from this talented gelding.

Whilst there are dangers in the field who will be ready to take advantage should the favourite falter, none have quite shown the talent to match the level shown by Ballyburn if he is at his best, and he's worth sticking with considering the ability he has shown previously.

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Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - Beyond Your Dreams @ 6/17.00

Four-year-old Fastnet Rock filly Beyond Your Dreams stands out at the weights on form having been given a lenient mark of 123 by the handicapper.

Trained by Joseph O'Brien, the promising prospect is out of a daughter to Potion, a dual winner over a mile-and-a-quarter who was out of a sister to Dewhurst Stakes winner Xaar, and half-sister to the talented Masterclass. Potion was also once owned by J P McManus and produced a number of winners including a son of Galileo in Boherbuoy, who won twice in the green and gold, once over hurdles.

There's plenty of class in the pedigree, which includes top Flat performers but also winners over obstacles, and this filly should have enough talent to improve significantly beyond her current rating in future.

Beyond Your Dreams made her debut in January 2024 but didn't appear to get the hang of things until her sixth start in a Tipperary handicap over 1m1f in which she finished a two-and-three-quarter-lengths behind in sixth. Staying on strongly in the finish, having been slowly away as in most of her previous starts, she was forced wide when making her challenge from the rear in the straight and her performance could be upgraded on that basis.

It was a huge improvement on her previous efforts and she was able to take another step forward to win over a mile-and-a-half at Listowel. With form figures of 2221 since, over obstacles in her last three outings, she has shown consistency whilst appearing to have plenty left in reserve, far from the finished product, and should have further progression to come.

On her hurdling debut at Fairyhouse, she finished a length-and-a-half second to Space Warrior when a 4/51.80 beaten favourite. It was another of her runs that can be upgraded, although the form has been let down, as she was quite keen in the early stages, racing enthusiastically, and it did take some time for her to settle.

In the closing stages, she was travelling strongly as the race developed, but was on the back foot jumping the second last, stuck in a bit of a pocket, before running on strongly after the final flight when finding a clear run, to finish a closing second.

Her following effort at Navan is the most noteworthy piece of form. On her penultimate start, the filly finished half-a-length behind Total Look, again staying on well in the finish, rallying to close on eventual winner Total Look approaching the line, pulling four-lengths clear of third-placed Wendrock.

Wendrock went on to beat Galileo Dame, a subsequent second in Grade One company at Leopardstown, by two-lengths to win his maiden, which represents a good formline, although it's worth noting the runner-up on that occasion appeared to drastically improve on her following outing.

In contrast, Wendrock finished down the field at the Dublin Racing Festival when beaten fourteen-lengths by the winner, Hello Neighbour, in that juvenile hurdle, but has been burdened with a mark of 136 regardless. Considering Beyond Your Dreams was far superior when the pair met, a mark of 123 appears extremely lenient in comparison, whilst the winner from that Navan contest, Total Look, will run from a rating of 132.

Again, that appears generous in comparison with Wendrock, but considering Beyond Your Dreams has only half-a-length to find with Total Look on form, and the fact she was closing with every stride when finishing second to the Gavin Cromwell-trained juvenile, Beyond Your Dreams is the standout candidate in this race if following the Irish juvenile form. 

Beyond Your Dreams went on to beat Slurricane on her latest start, the winning distance of three-quarters-of-a-length fails to tell the full story considering she made up plenty of ground in the finish to prevail. The front two were on level weights that day, with the 7lb claim of the runner up's rider negating the fillies' allowance. Despite this, Slurricane has been given a 3lb higher rating than Beyond Your Dreams, even though the filly did plenty wrong and appeared to still have plenty in reserve. 

Whilst she will need to jump more fluently and settle in the early stages, Beyond Your Dreams is improving as she gains experience and has already shown a high level of form in Ireland. She has been shortened since mentioned in last week's handicap piece following the weights announcement but she remains the most attractive proposition in this race from a mark of 123, and could shorten further before the off from such a lenient mark for top connections.

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Princess Royal National Hunt Handicap Chase - Back Now Is The Hour @ 7/24.50

With the National Hunt Chase now a handicap, it could be time for Now Is The Hour to show the best of his ability over fences from a mark of 139 which appears lenient on hurdling form.

Completely unexposed in handicap company over fences, the gelding shaped with promise when second on chase debut, before showing significant improvement on his first couple of starts of the season when a four-length fourth to Three Card Brag at Navan, staying on well over the three mile trip.

A further step up in distance should suit, given he has proven his stamina on numerous occasions, often in testing conditions, too. This trip is an unknown, but he was a thirty-length winner of a point and hasn't appeared to be struggling when finishing over three miles, suggesting there is plenty left in his stamina reserves.

Last season, the Gavin Cromwell-trained gelding was a magnificent winner of a Haydock Grade Two, beating runner-up Don't Rightly Know by seventeen-lengths, with the likes of Haiti Couleurs and Latenightpass further behind.

That was on ground described as heavy over an extended three miles at Haydock, which can turn incredibly testing, and, although a comfortable winner, he was asked for some effort by his jockey Sean Flanagan and responded well.

Second-place Don't Rightly Know has since won three from three since switching to chasing and is now rated 144 following two Listed successes, over Apple Away and Malina Girl, respectively, significantly franking the form from Now Is The Hour's Haydock victory.

At the weights, Now Is The Hour makes the most appeal in this contest. Whilst he'll likely face stiff opposition from the likes of Transmission and Haiti Couleurs, he is less exposed, and can improve plenty on his previous chase appearances.

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Ultima Handicap Chase - Back Henry's Friend @ 10/111.00

Representing a Ben Pauling yard who have been in good form all season but appear to be peaking at the perfect time having recorded a 33 percent strike-rate during February, Henry's Friend is the pick of the field in this competitive handicap.

The progressive eight-year-old has won four of his seven chasing starts to date with plenty of good form including beating the likes of Walking On Air, who proved much better than his mark reflected at Doncaster, and the sadly ill-fated Kilbeg King, who had shown a great deal of ability during his career. 

On his latest effort in December, Henry's Friend comfortably beat the progressive and consistent Hymac by six-lengths and is 7lb higher as a result. Despite running from a career-high mark of 145 here, there could be more to come from this gelding who remains lightly-raced and somewhat unexposed in big field chasing handicaps.

The gelding performed with credit when fifth to Kandoo Kid in a competitive Newbury contest in November, from a rating of 139, and should have learnt plenty from that experience which should hold him in good stead here. He likes to race prominently, too, which should be to his advantage in a race of this nature and has proved fruitful for numerous previous winners, although isn't always necessary as Corach Rambler demonstrated.

Pulled up on his only previous trip to Cheltenham could be seen as a negative, but this is a completely different scenario and the National Hunt Chase didn't appear to suit over a marathon distance in heavy ground last term. This should be much more to his liking and he appears to be improving with each run this season, which would suggest he's ready to peak.

On his reappearance, he was a distance behind winner American Sniper over hurdles, before improving at Newbury and taking another step forward on his latest start. If he can show even further improvement here, he should be able to handle the rise in the weights.

With proven stamina, Henry's Friend should be staying on strongly in the finish from a prominent position. Under the in-form Ben Jones, he appears one of the yard's strongest chances of the Festival and has the right profile to be competitive in this handicap which has been dominated by British-based winners in recent years.

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