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16/117.00 The Gatekeeper could run another cracker
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TC warms to 14/115.00 Novakai in Yorkshire Oaks
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Free bet when you bet £5 worth of racing multiples
We punters are as fickle as we are inconsistent. On Wednesday, we were all moaning about the inadequate number of runners and just 24 hours later we are all grumbling about how Thursday at York, with very deep, uber-competitive fields, is simply impossible.
Actually, you can replace "we" with "me" in the above paragraph, but hand on heart, I don't think I have seen a nastier set of punting ITV races in a long while.
So, as I operate a strict no bet, no tip, policy I make no apologies for this column probably being one of my shortest ever missives at a big meeting.
I have dug out a bet or two though, so bear with me.
York - 13:50: No bet
Nasty is probably the wrong word to use for the Lowther Stakes at 13:50 as, while there are some likeable fillies in there, I pretty much agreed with the market and made it a straight three-way-go between Relief Rally, Cherry Blossom and Flora Of Bermuda in what could be a substandard renewal.
Oh, for a commentator with a lisp here. Perhaps the singer Tony "Cwying" Angelino from Only Fools And Horses can try to get on the callers' rota.
Cherry Blossom did win a very modest Curragh maiden last time but she did it in style in a pretty quick time, and she could easily make the leap to Group 2 success. But I'd be wanting more than 2/13.00 - though she is 3.5551/20 on the Exchange - thank you very much.
And maybe it isn't just between three, as Beautiful Diamond and Star Of Mystery could have their supporters.
York - 14:25 & 16:10: No bet
The 22-runner 6f 2yo race at 14:25 is where punters are made to bet if they have been very naughty, and it really is a hellish race to try to decipher.
Dapperling probably doesn't deserve to be quoted in double figures (currently around 15.014/1 on the exchange) on her second to the aforementioned Relief Rally in the Super Sprint at Newbury two starts ago.
You can forgive her Goodwood run on very bad ground last time, especially as she hardly got a dream passage, but she could run to her best and finish seventh here, with so much ammo ranged against her. And her stamina for a helter-skelter 6f is not proven.
I'll also rule out an incredibly difficult 13-runner fillies' 1m4f Listed race at 16:10 for punting purposes at the current odds - though as the prices (and possibly place terms) change in the above three no-bet races, so may my betting take, so tune in to the 8am Betting Briefing each day of the Ebor Festival on Twitter Spaces - and skip straight to the two contests that had me having a modest wager.
York - 15:00: Back The Gatekeeper
Now, the 1m handicap at 15:00 is arguably the hardest ITV race to call but I think The Gatekeeper remains a touch overpriced at 16/117.00 with the Sportsbook. I will play him at 17.016/1 or bigger on the Exchange though (currently 18.535/2 there).
I'd have very much liked the opening 33/134.00 to have lasted - that price went from 33/134.00 to 25/126.00 to 22/123.00 to 18/119.00 on Tuesday afternoon and into [16/1 that evening - but we can't be greedy, and the 16/117.00 is still the best price in the village.
Back him win-only, exchange or fixed odds; the choice is yours.
I'd have liked less pace in the race and a slightly lower draw than 13 for him but I am sure William Buick will do the necessary and he is sitting on a horse with very solid claims.
He has run two crackers of late, and he is actually 2lb well-in after his second of 20 at Goodwood last time, a handicap Joe Fanning seems to have blamed himself for not winning.
The horse lost momentum when being switched to make his challenge 1f out (a run would have appeared had he sat tight on the rail) and he could not quite reel in the winner, going down by half-a-length.
I normally like course form at York, and he hasn't raced here before surprisingly, but I am happy to play to small stakes at the price, win-only, given the positives. I'll settle at Betfair SP, as per usually, and he may well drift back out.
York - 15:35: Back Novakai
All the fancy prices have gone about Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks at 15:35 - the 14/115.00 and 12/113.00 was hoovered up on Tuesday afternoon about the supposed Aidan O'Brien second-string, and then even the 10/111.00 was cut a couple of points in the evening and again on Wednesday morning - so, as with The Gatekeeper, I had a decision to make.
And I decided that the price ran away from me a touch too much. I can't see much juice in the 7/18.00, and she is not that much bigger on the Exchange at 8.27/1.
If she drifts back out to 10/111.00 and bigger, I will back her, and I suggest you do too if that happens. But I can hardly recommend you back her now when I wouldn't get involved.
The case for her is pretty strong though, even in a race with obvious depth.
If I'd have backed her in the Irish Oaks last time, I would not have been a happy bunny, as she was dropped right out from the start and never got competitive.
Perhaps they were worried about her getting the trip in the soft ground, as I know they think 1m4f is the limit of her stamina. But I have always thought dropping a horse with stamina concerns out the back doesn't make much sense.
If you put a line through that run, and I would, then she has a big claim here, having beaten the 1.01-traded Irish Oaks runner-up Bluestocking over 1m2f at Newbury and then routed the Ribblesdale field on fast ground over 1m4f at Royal Ascot.
That is strong form too, with the 2 ½-length runner-up Lumiere Rock just touched off in a Group 2 at Deauville on Sunday and the unlucky-in-running Bluestocking back in third.
James Doyle has picked up a very good ride, but I just wonder whether Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore could switch if they deem the ground too quick for Savethelastdance on the day. But, then again, you'd pay for that in the shape of a Rule 4.
You can genuinely make a case for all 10 in here though - which is why you have to be price conscious - and in fact the lowest-rated, Novakai at 15.014/1 or bigger on the Exchange, would probably be my second choice behind Warm Heart.
So that is the filly I am tipping at the current prices. As the odds change, so must your mindset.
I hope The Gatekeeper's jockey Buick has a very good day, as he also is on her too, for the first time since he steered her to a length second to Commissioning in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at two.
She was rated 113 after that run (now 107) and she has not done badly at all this season.
Okay, the French Oaks run from a midfield draw was a little underwhelming but she finished second to the Oaks winner Soul Sister here in the Musidora. She proved her 1m4f stamina when winning an admittedly weak Listed race at Newmarket last month.
She is a filly with a lot of upside about her and she has also won on good to firm.
Good luck.
YORK EBOR FESTIVAL DAY 2 SUPERBOOST
Back Ryan Moore to ride a winner from one of his six rides - was 4/11 - now 1/12.00!
*Max £10
Watch Racing...Only Bettor York Ebor Day 2
Read Ryan Moore: Savethelastdance has leading chance in Yorkshire Oaks