Saturday Racing Tips: Four fresh bets for Tony Calvin from 8/1 to 25/1

• 12/113.00 ante-post tip now favourite for Classic Chase

• Volcano and Sam Brown fancied to go well at Warwick

• Two bets on a quality-looking card at Kempton

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Right, ground housekeeping at the three ITV Saturday tracks, and then we can kick straight on.

It is set to be dry at all three from hereon in (as it has been all week, in fact), and the current going descriptions are as follows: Wetherby is heavy, soft in places; Warwick is soft; and Kempton is good to soft, soft in places on the hurdles track and good to soft, good in places, on the chase circuit.

Warwick - 15:00: Malina Girl advised ante-post

Let's start at Warwick, where I stuck up Malina Girl at 12s on Monday for the 3m5f Classic Chase at 15:00, so we are obviously sitting pretty enough there from an odds point of view. Not so great for another ante-post bet, but we will come to that shortly.

Basically, that 12s looked far too big, given her much-improved profile.

She looked all stamina when winning over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham in November and was going smoothly and ominously well, off this mark, when falling 3 out at Cheltenham last time. The handicapper couldn't mess with her rating because she departed so far out.

However, she traded at a low of 2.0621/20 there and I think that was a fair enough assessment of whether she would have gone on to win.

And, clearly, Gavin Cromwell is a man to have on your side in his UK ventures (8 from 31 this season, with another six placed) . He has seen an opportunity over here and is proving rather good at exploiting it.

I think her Sportsbook price of 9/25.50 now (shortened further by absentees) is nothing above fair - she is as big as 6s elsewhere - so I won't stick her up again, but I'd like to think she has a favourite's chance in what is obviously a very deep handicap.

Warwick - 15:00: Back Volcano

Any Second Now's no-show means the weights have risen dramatically - by 13lb in fact, with ante-post favourite Monbeg Genius another surprise withdrawal at the overnight stage - which is great news for Percussion, My Silver Lining, Duc De Beauchene and Volcano.

They were all out of the handicap at the five-day stage, the latter three massively so, most obviously Duc De Beauchene and Volcano, who were originally on 9st 3lb and 9st1lb respectively.

The former is now in the handicap, and the latter is just 2lb wrong, and you can make a case for both, even though they are the race outsiders at 20s and 25s respectively with the Sportsbook.

Any Second Now is owned by J P McManus, as is Duc De Beauchene, and the latter, a 3m5f Norfolk National winner (not quite the Aintree version, granted), is certainly well handicapped now if he ever returns to form, even if the ground may not be ideal for him (though he handles soft).

The case for Volcano is more obvious (and less conspiratorial) as he has course form figures of 111151 and, even though 2lb wrong here, he is still 5lb lower than when finishing a respectable fifth in this race last year (when 10lb out of the handicap).

He has been messing around with Cross Country races on his last two starts, and actually running well in the first of those in November when the small matter of 16lb out of the handicap, and this is much more his bag.

Forcing tactics around here clearly serve him well, though there is no shortage for pace competition, with a few prominent racers and with Percussion and Galia Des Liteaux with a liking to get on with it, too.

There are negatives obviously, but Volcano is worth a small fresh bet in the race at 25/126.00 win-only or 26.025/1 or bigger on the exchange. This presumably has been his target all season, and they have got lucky with the weights rising so much.

Warwick - 13:49: No Bet

The ITV action starts off with the Pertemps qualifier at 13:49. The numbers have shrunk from 18 to eight at the five-day stage, so half of the field are guaranteed to qualify if they finish.

That will be the ambition for Third Wind, I imagine, off with leg issues since winning the 2022 final.

This is a tricky race. I thought Kyntara was still on a fair mark, having been raised a fair 6lb for his dominant Aintree win last time, and with a win and a narrow second in two course starts.

But the 5/23.50 is nothing flash - the 3s was quickly taken on Thursday - and in fact Gentleman At Arms at 14s is actually far more appealing, though of course you have to forgive him a shocker last time.

I'll leave the race alone, though.

Warwick - 14:24: No Bet

Only five runners in the Grade 2 3m novices' chase at 14:24, but a little cracker of its' kind, and the Sportsbook opened up 2/13.00 co-favourites of three with Apple Away, Broadway Boy and Grey Dawning.

I could smash out a few hundred words on this race but the simple truth is I can see the case for all three - and maybe The Changing Man at 9s, too (the opening 14s was promptly cut) - and I am not going near it betting-wise.

Warwick - 15:35: Back Sam Brown

All 17 stood their ground from the five-day stage in the rescheduled veterans' chase at 15:35, though De Rasher Counter's first preference is for a seven-runner race at Kempton.

I stuck up Sam Brown at 16s ante-post for the Sandown race and he got backed into halve those odds before it was abandoned, so I was little surprised to see him available at 14s and 12s here (the Sportsbook are the latter price, paying five places) as it is pretty much the same field.

That said, there is a huge 18s available with one outfit, but I have to ignore those odds. In fact, I don't have to anymore, as someone has wisely snaffled it up.

I am going to stick with him, as the case I made for him a week ago still stands, in that we know his current mark of 147 is eminently exploitable - his Aintree win and Peter Marsh second confirm that, as did his fall 2 out at Punchestown in April when in front and looking the likely winner - and he shaped well enough over an inadequate 2m4f last time.

Similar possible negatives to Sandown exist in that this track may not be ideal (never raced here before) and we don't know how he will take to the first-time visor - plus he isn't exactly in peak form either, let's be honest - but there is a ton of pace on in here, and a midfield sit with a view to a late-ish challenge as they turn in could just do the trick.

Back him at 13.012/1 or bigger on the exchange. The 12s with the Sportsbook is obviously okay, too but we may even get to 16s and bigger on the machine (I thought of Gary Wiltshire when writing that).

I'll play win-only obviously, even if five places are available for each way punters, as this race has depth. It's only s small bet though. I'll settle the exchange bet at Betfair SP, as per usual.

Kempton - 13:30: No Bet

Kempton's 3m handicap chase at 13:30 has cut up massively from 16 to just seven at the overnight stage, and unfortunately the no-shows include my Tuesday ante-post selection Cap Du Nord, who looked to have everything in his favour.

So, apologies. It appears a moderate piece of work on Wednesday put running plans on hold, though he could show up at Doncaster at the end of the month if showing more sparkle at home before then, I suppose.

In his absence, Flegmatik has an obvious chance given he is running well, and has excellent course and distance form, but he is priced accordingly at 5/23.50. De Rasher Counter could be of interest here if he hits 7s or bigger on the exchange.

Kempton - 14:07: Back Notlongtillmay

I wasn't going to play in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at 14:07 but the Sportsbook have rather forced my hand with the 8/19.00 about Notlongtillmay.

He may not have the class of the top three but the 6lb he gets from them here really levels the playing field - he also gets 3lb from Banbridge, who is rated 1lb inferior to him - and he also comes here after cracking handicap efforts off 152.

Back him at 8/19.00 win-only with the Sportsbook, or a similar price on the exchange if it shows up there. The price doesn't tally with the formbook, or the fact that he comes in here on the back of a career-best.

Kempton - 14:42: Back Wonderwall

On Monday, I seriously toyed with putting Nemean Lion up for the Lanzarote at 14:42, but decided against it at 8s as I thought the numbers would hold up (they have, with only one short of a maximum field) and the price would be similar on the day with enhanced place terms.

And. crucially, I was worried he may be a no-show with the ground drying out.

Now, that he is here (and it is money back if he is pulled out, as he was at Ascot and Kempton last month), I have a decision to make as he brings the strongest recent handicap form to the race.

Fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle last time, where errors at the final two flights maybe cost him one or two places, the furthest he has been over hurdles was over 2m2f at Kelso last March, a race in which he saw his race out very well to land that Grade 2 pot.

That should have come as no surprise given he was second in a Group 2 contest over 1m7f in heavy ground on the Flat in France (back in 2020) and there is definitely plenty of mileage in trying him at this 2m5f trip on just his seventh start over hurdles.

That 2m Greatwood Hurdle has seen the third, fourth (Sonigino, also in here) and sixth come out and win since, and I have Nemean Lion improving for this stamina test as well.

Everything is about price though, and the Sportsbook are just 11/26.50, so the exchange on the day is the place to back him.

However, there was no doubt in my mind that the bet in the race was Wonderwall at 25/126.00 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook, when I first filed this.

I was disappointed to see the 33s disappear just before 2pm, but not remotely surprised as 20s or bigger would do nicely anyway. However, he has been cut further into 16s just before this went live, when he is nine points bigger elsewhere.

I am now going to suggest you get with him at 21.020/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange, which should be attainable given he is 25s, 22s and 20s in the fixed-odds arena. You may have to wait for the liquidity to arrive, though, so apologies.

He is 22.021/1 as this goes live, albeit in a very lightly-traded market at the moment. I'll settle at Betfair SP obviously.

Wonderwall was a very good bumper horse, seventh in the big one at Cheltenham in 2021, and he showed plenty in three starts as a novice hurdler as well, beating City Chief over this trip at Doncaster and then being in with every chance when falling at the last in the Sidney Banks.

He obviously hasn't kicked on from there, and he didn't set the world alight over fences in November, but he ran a couple of decent races on the Flat in the summer and he returns to hurdles off a mark of just 128 and I am taking the switch to Peter Bowen from Richard Spencer as a positive.

That mark looks generous on his novice hurdle exploits, and that bumper promise.

Jay Jay Reilly is a big price at 40s in a couple of places in the wider marketplace, given his Kempton form and his mark of just 132 - plus any drying of the hurdles track will be in his favour - but I have to decline the invitation to get involved at the Sportsbook's 28s.

Like Nemean Lion though, he may well be worth checking out on the exchange on Saturday. He'll surely be 50.049/1 and bigger there given his unsexy profile. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder though, and he will look attractive enough to me if he is weak on Saturday afternoon.

Wetherby - 13:10: No Bet

Wetherby's 2m3f+ Grade 2 novices' chase at 13:10 never attracts a big field - never bigger than seven, in fact - so they were probably happy with a turn-out of six as at 10am, even if Apple Away has gone to Warwick and we lost three others at the overnight stage.

Well, unfortunately they were down to five at 12.49pm on Thursday as Meetingofthewaters was taken out as he was coughing.

Betfair Henry VIII Chase runner-up Colonel Harry was always the obvious one to beat, especially as going up looks set to suit, but Meetingofthewaters was probably the one to keep him on his toes.

Hopefully, Cheltenham third Trelawne can still keep him honest, but this looks like Colonel Harry's to lose now, even if the Sportsbook's 8/111.73 is no particular bargain.

If you are reading this before Friday's racing at Naas takes places, I thought Asluckwoodhavit at 14/115.00 in the novices chase at 12:42 and An Tobar at 13/27.50 in the Grade 1 novices' hurdle were fair win-only bets with the Sportsbook.

They must have been as they were literally just cut to 11/112.00 and 9/25.50 before this went live.

We discuss those Naas races on the Racing Only Bettor podcast.

Good luck.

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